Caucus Chaos

... and the road to New Hampshire

A lot was made about the faulty apps at the Iowa caucuses this past week, but by week's end caucus officials were able to count the votes and post results, verifying Mayor Pete's bold prediction that he had won.  Bernie Sanders is of course challenging those results, because Bernie challenges everything.  He and his Bernie Bros believe there is an active conspiracy to deny him the nomination once again.

The wily old codger is enjoying his moment in the sun.  At 78, he should be enjoying retirement, but instead honestly believes he has eight good years left inside him to turn our government on its head and impose his brand of "democratic socialism," which he thinks will make America truly great again.

Hillary has been assailing his autocratic vision and the misogyny she believes is rampant in his campaign.  In other words, Bernie is a democratic socialist variation of Trump.  That may be true, but he does have some high profile women supporting him, notably the notorious AOC, the young woman conservatives so much love to hate.  Of course, there are those who think she is just using Bernie to boost her chances for a presidential run of her own in 2024.  She would turn 35 that year.  However, Democrats desperately want to oust Trump from office this year.

Pete punched a hole into Bernie's campaign -- a big hole actually -- as Bernie considered himself the voice of the American heartland.  Bernie at least finished a very close second and should do well in New Hampshire, given he represents Vermont in Congress.  The guy who really took a "gut punch" is Shameless Joe Biden, who is now trying to turn his stutter into a political asset.  Joe had been the frontrunner throughout this campaign and finished a distant fourth in Iowa.

Biden takes some solace from the fact he has historically done poorly in Iowa.  His two previous presidential campaigns both ended in the Hawkeye State.  He is banking on a big turnaround in New Hampshire, but this race is likely to come down to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are from Vermont and Massachusetts, with Biden third or fourth.  The only thing keeping him going at this point is a Super PAC that is pouring money into New Hampshire in a last ditch effort to keep his campaign afloat.

Mayor Pete won't necessarily pick up Biden's support.  We have Mayor Bloom waiting in the wings, thinking he can reap all those disgruntled Democrats who don't subscribe to Bernie's socialist vision of America.  However, you have to think most of them will go with the affable young mayor from South Bend, who represents a much brighter future than does a New York mayor infamous for palling around with Donald Trump and promoting the notorious "stop and frisk" laws in the Big Apple.

If this race comes down to Pete and Bernie, I would think the other Democratic candidates will similarly throw their support behind Pete.  He tends to ruffle less feathers, as he is willing to brook compromise, which Bernie has historically proven unable to do.  I still hold out hope for Liz Warren but it isn't looking too good for her.  She has to have a strong showing in New Hampshire to have any chance in the subsequent primaries.

For all the promise this campaign held last summer, it has devolved rather disappointingly into a battle between youth and seniority for the nomination.  The odd part is that Bernie, a fierce independent his long political life, is trying to claim the Democratic party's highest honor.  Pete, the young upstart, only appeared on the radar screen this past year.  The party is being taken over by new faces, much like the Republican party has been, and we can only guess as to the outcome in this sea change of politics.

Pete at least represents Democratic values.  Bernie represents himself.  His is a vision that will not transcend America anymore than Donald Trump's vision has.  The only thing that has kept Bernie going to this point is his audacity.  People seem to view it as an antidote to Trump's toxic politics, but is it good for the nation?

It is highly unlikely Bernie would get a single legislative victory as President.  Not only does his abrasive style of politics upset Republicans, but many Democrats as well.  He would have to carry out his agenda by executive decree, which he repeatedly threatens to do, but there is a limit to what he would actually be able to enact, leaving us with four more years of highly contested government and more bitter feelings and recriminations.

Pete, on the other hand, offers us a way out of this cynical impasse.  Some say he has a lack of vision, but I think he is smartly avoiding any hard and fast positions so that he is not forced to retract them, as Liz Warren has done with "Medicare For All."  He's the conscientious pragmatist, in the mold of Obama, who is willing to work with Congress to come up with reasonable solutions to the social problems vexing our nation.  As such, he has much more appeal.  I believe this is why he won Iowa, albeit by a hair's breadth.

Hillary is right about Bernie.  He is not very well liked beyond his narrow base.  That base might be strong enough to carry him through the primaries, but I doubt it will be enough to carry him through the general election, and if it were we would be stuck with another irascible president determined to do everything his way to the detriment of the majority of the country.

While Liz is still my first choice, Pete represents a much better alternative to Bernie.  I would have no problem voting for Pete in November.