Let's think beyond 2022

2021 has been an odd year to say the least.  My wife and I were looking for a small flat, thinking the prices had been deflated due to the pandemic, only to find that real estate is more expensive than ever.  All the EU money pumped into the economy to help offset the shutdowns of 2020 resulted in a speculative boom, not just for real estate but the building industry as a whole.  We had also hoped to rebuild the garden house for our son and his girlfriend on a budget of 25,000 euros, only to find that wouldn't even cover a new roof.  

Yet, we didn't benefit from this economic boom ourselves.  We had a hard time securing clients, finally able to get a couple of residential designs and a small school rehab project in the Fall.  While materials and construction costs soar, architects are apparently a dime a dozen. We were able to get a little bit of a windfall from side projects, so we didn't suffer too badly.

It is hard to say which way the economic barometer will turn in 2022.  You have to think the EU will tap on the brakes to help avert the inflation problems that have hit the US.  Costs have risen, especially for utilities, but this has less to do with inflation than it does price gouging.  No big surpluses this new year like there were at the start of the year.  Oil and gas prices have soared as well.

Part of the problem is Nord Stream 2, an incredibly expensive pipeline that Germany financed to supply itself and by extension Europe with natural gas from Russia.  This pipeline is fraught with economical and political peril, as discussed in this Guardian article, essentially giving Vlad the Impaler the current upper hand when it comes to European energy needs.  Why we haven't invested more in solar and wind energy and render Putin irrelevant is beyond me.  Here he is wanting NATO out of Eastern Europe, firmly believing he is in position to call the shots.

So, it is not just the economy we have to worry about in 2022 but how far Putin will go to extend the Kremlin's influence in Eastern Europe.  Needless to say, there is a lot of worry in Lithuania.  I heard a panel discuss the issue on French television the other night, which included a Belarussian professor, who teaches in Vilnius.  They all thought Putin wouldn't go so far as to reclaim Ukraine.  He is just showing his ability to do so, should NATO think of providing support to the embattled government.  Yet, we all know what Russia, and by extension the Soviet Union, has done in the past.  So, you can't rule anything out.

Russia never really recognized Ukrainian independence, or for that matter the independence of all the former Soviet states.  The Kremlin continues to exercise influence over these countries by meddling in their politics and putting pressure on them through oil and gas supplies.  Little discussed is the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal Lithuania finally completed in 2014 that allowed it to start importing natural gas from other countries.  The terminal has greatly reduced dependence on Russian natural gas, but prices still remain high, as we can see in our monthly bill.

Meanwhile, the border issue seems to have eased a bit.  No one is quite sure what Angela Merkel and Alexander Lukashenko talked about, but it certainly seemed to ease tensions.  Lithuanian and Polish government officials weren't happy at all about this detente, as they think it only emboldens Lukashenko to continue to try to exert pressure on the borders whenever he wants something from the EU.  It also offers no help for the Belarussian opposition, which has tried so hard to unseat Lukashenko, only to be given a cold shoulder by the West. Who can forget the images from last winter when large crowds marched in Minsk and other cities in the country. 

It seems Germany is protecting its own interests, having spent so much on this pipeline over the last 15 years, a parting gift from Gerhard Schroeder.  Merkel nurtured the pipeline throughout her tenure, when she just as easily could have dropped it.  After all, Germany was making a big song and dance about its conversion to solar and other forms of sustainable energy, even going so far as to decommission its coal plants.  Yet, it somehow views natural gas as clean energy, as it seems many persons do, unaware of the vast pipelines it takes to funnel this gas to various points around the globe.  There is nothing clean about it.

We shouldn't blame Germany entirely. The United States and European countries have been slow to make the switch.  There is still too much money to be made in oil and gas to forgo it completely, so we live in this hybrid world, where countries extol the virtues of sustainable forms of energy but don't make any real commitments to it.  We keep pushing the target dates forward as to when we will no longer pump these fossil fuels out of the ground and reach this magical state of carbon neutrality.  As a result, you see kids like Greta Thunberg admonishing world leaders for their "blah, blah, blah" at the Cop26 climate summit.  She's right.  Their words means nothing.

Ultimately, this is about far more than what 2022 will bring, but what the future will bring, and it is high time we start thinking about what we are leaving for the next generation.  Energy independence will greatly relieve the burden we are hoisting upon our children's backs, so that they won't have to deal with despots like Putin or fake peacemakers like Merkel, who are simply looking to bide time.  We need an entirely new vision of the future.  One that we can proudly share with our children so that they have a better life.