Slouching toward Bethlehem

I couldn't resist a couple pair of "Ghost of Kyiv" socks from Heel Tread, as quite a few of my old pairs of socks had holes.  The Ukraine War has begun to be marketed, often with matching contributions, but there is a lot of profit to be made as well.  Ukraine flags are a big seller, going for 28 euros here.  You can buy them for much less on amazon, but these are Chinese made, and no one wants to support China right now either.

Ukraine finds itself front and center, not only in its fight to retain its sovereignty but in a battle for democracy.  Foreign leaders use this quiet moment to meet Zelenskyy in Kyiv to bolster their own image back home.  You knew it was an opportunity Boris couldn't pass up, making the most of it by talking with local residents and coming away with ceramic rooster carafe in the process.  These cockerel jugs have become the symbol of Ukrainian resistance.  At least, Boris anted up, providing badly needed munitions for Ukraine.  The chancellor of Austria came mostly to offer his moral assurance to Zelenskyy that he would tell Putin what a bad guy he is when he met him face to face in Moscow.

This whole thing could end in two months if Europe simply cut off oil and gas from Russia, said Dr. Andrei Illarionov, a former advisor to Putin, but few European leaders are willing to step up to the challenge.  They are too afraid of the unrest it would cause in their own countries, as people wrestle with rising fuel prices.  Just the same, the sanctions have done some good.  On the brink of default, I found it almost comic that Russia's finance minister vowed legal action, when before Medvedev threatened nuclear action if the West persisted in its efforts to cut off Russia economically.

Alas, the war drags on with no end in sight.  Putin has brought in his butcher from Syria to inflict even more pain and misery on Ukrainians, particularly those besieged in Mariupol and Kharkiv, two cities that Putin wants desperately to take before May 9, so that he can claim some sort of victory at his big parade in Moscow.  Who knows, he might even fly into one of these cities if his forces are able to take them, as he did Crimea in 2014.  After that, it will be a slow grind.  Russia will take its time moving south and west until its forces capture everything east of the Dnieper.

I don't think Europeans have the stomach for this, but who knows.  We've managed to forget about Syrians and Afghans pretty quickly.  The only difference is that Ukrainians are better able to communicate their plight and so they will continue to peck away at our collective conscience until our feeble leaders are finally forced to intervene, as was the case in Bosnia during the Balkan Wars.  I suspect it won't be NATO, but rather a "coalition of the willing" with the US and UK joining forces with Eastern European nations, who already fear this war will spread to their countries.  In the words of Yeats, we appear to be "slouching toward Bethlehem."

Germany has yet to fulfill its promise of anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, but is now promising leftover military equipment from the old GDR, which "Ukrainians will know how to use," forgetting that Ukrainians have proven very proficient in learning how to use missile-laden drones, javelins and other rocket launchers that weren't around during the Cold War.  This is pretty typical of German arrogance.  They seem to think Eastern European countries are still mired in a Soviet mentality.  

It is fortunate that Russia is still mired in a Soviet mentality, unable to make much headway after its initial assault on Ukraine.  48 days later, it is no closer to achieving its goal of "de-Nazifying" the country than it was on day one, when it dropped its elite paratroopers on key airports and claimed to have cut off Ukraine's air defense.  Like so many of the Kremlin's pronouncements, it proved to be false.  Ukraine was able to mount an effective air resistance immediately, and beat back the infamous 60-mile long convoy that everyone was so sure would strangle Kyiv in its "anaconda" grip.  Six weeks later, Russian forces were forced to retreat, leaving behind a trail of gruesome atrocities.   As expected, the Kremlin artfully called it a gesture toward peace, claiming they were living up their end of the bargains being struck in Istanbul. The horrible scenes we saw coming out of Bucha were staged, according to foreign minister Lavrov.

Lost in all this empty talk coming out of Moscow is that we hear so little from Putin himself.  Where is Vladimir?  The Austrian chancellor did meet with him in what was described as "not a friendly visit."  Karl Nehammer reportedly told the Russian president the unvarnished truth of the situation in an effort to "minimize Kremlin propaganda".  All well and good, but I seriously doubt Vladimir took the chancellor's words to heart.

For Putin it is all about keeping face.  He can't very well tell his people he is losing the war and has to call in more dogs and firepower to crush this wayward state's spirit.  He can't even bring himself to say Ukraine.  Instead, he presents this "special military operation" as an existential fight for survival, which in itself belies his refusal to call it a war.  At some point, he may have no choice, as casualties mount with the Kremlin forced to admit it is losing soldiers by the thousands.

Will it have an impact on Russians themselves?  Hard to say.  The state-run media has done a pretty good job in freezing out any information that goes against the Kremlin narrative.  Former independent news channels like Dozhd are now forced to report from outside Russia, with their telecasts blocked or warning labels put on those that seep through social media.  Most Russians would freeze out these reports anyway, as they go against their cognitive bias.  Still one hopes there will be a cathartic moment when Russians see the shame this war has brought upon their nation and hold Putin accountable.

We have to do more than buy socks, flags, and ceramic cockerels on webstores.  We have to force our leaders to confront Putin the way Ukraine has.  Only then will we have peace.  If we allow this war to drag on, Putin will regain much of his strength and in time seek his revenge on EU countries closest to his borders.  The least we can do is cut oil and gas supply from Russia, if we can't bring ourselves to confront him directly.  The time is now! Otherwise, Kyiv may end up being remembered in the same way as Sarajevo.