The price of peace is eternal vigilance

Lithuanian defense bunkers aren't the most inviting places.

There are no end of talk shows on Lithuanian television, usually with the same faces, just different hosts.  One of the most popular is Bučiuoju, Rūta, in which she invites her "friends" to chat with her about current events.  To add a little substance, she also invites two "experts" on whatever theme she chooses for the evening.  Last night it was emergency preparedness.  Unfortunately, there are as many ads in the video link as there were last night on television.  Anyway, you can have a little taste of Lithuanian television if you like.

My wife likes the silver-haired guy, Šarūnas Jasiukevičius.  He goes around the country examining military bunkers and underground shelters, determining their readiness.  Out of some 400+ bunkers he has personally inspected, many of them dating back to WWII, he determined that only 7 were ready for use in times of war.  As you can see from the images, some of the bunkers are flooded and the supplies and rations rotting away in wood lockboxes.  

He said that if Russia were to invade Lithuania, there would be no point trying to evacuate as the Suwalki Gap would be closed off in a matter of minutes.  If not by Russia, then by the flood of traffic trying to escape into Poland.  It is only 60 kilometers distant between Kaliningrad and Belarus, allowing Russia to effectively close the corridor with simple artillery fire.  Probably true but one would like to think that with the help of NATO and Poland there would be equally speedy and effective retaliation.  Otherwise, what is the point of being in NATO?  Nevertheless, we would be stuck in Vilnius until a safe corridor could be established, and need at least three weeks food and water supply in order to ride out the initial attack.

Lithuania doesn't have an emergency preparedness plan like that of Finland, which claims it could safely house all its citizens in underground bunkers in a matter of minutes.  It has 5500 nuclear-proof bunkers in the Helsinki area alone.  The best Lithuania could do is house people in school basements, and as we have seen in Ukraine that doesn't provide much protection.  Fortunately, we have a basement of our own.  Not nuclear-proof but should be able to withstand conventional artillery fire.  We've stocked it and recently bought two big 300+ liter water tanks.  So, we figure we could ride out an initial attack.  

I don't know whether discussing such matters on talk shows heightens panic or spurs persons to get ready.  Even with NATO assurances, a Russian attack would cause a tremendous amount of chaos and it would be wise to get people mentally ready for such an event.  After all, Kaliningrad is our immediate neighbor, and no telling what goes on in Lukashenko's head from one day to the next.  Right now, he's busy telling everyone how Lithuanians have raided his country's stores for salt, having none back home.  It is true many Lithuanians shop at the border cities in Belarus, as food and pharmaceutical prices are significantly cheaper, but salt isn't a problem.  At least not yet.

The fact is many Belarusians now live permanently in Vilnius.  A large Belarusian community has emerged with a daycare next to our office in the Arkangelo Conference and Arts Center.  They left Belarus because they feel there are many more opportunities in Vilnius.  Even the opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, makes her temporary home here.  Thus, Lukashenko feels the need to compensate by portraying a massive salt shortage in Lithuania.

Ukrainians have had a more difficult time in Vilnius, as most of them came here with little more than the shirt on their backs, with their kids in tow, needing refuge.  For the past two months, we have hosted two Ukrainian families.  One mother has now go on to Spain, where she feels she can find better work opportunities and the climate is better for her and her two daughters.  The other mother recently received American visas for herself and her two boys, and plans to go to Chicago at the end of July to join her sister, who has been living in the United States for several years.  The Lithuanian economy favors enterprising businesspersons more so than it does unskilled labor.

In times of war, it doesn't really matter your station.  Granted, those who have more money can afford to build more lavish basements, including pools, to ride out the war, but for the most part we are all in the same boat.  So, it is best to find ways to get along, share resources, and learn basic first aid and other emergency preparedness skills.  That is why we took a first aid course a couple weeks ago and had planned to take an emergency preparedness course this weekend but there weren't enough people signed up to warrant the class.  This is something Jasiukevičius says has to change.  The country has to be ready for an invasion.

We have thought about buying a gun, but it is more difficult here.  You have to take a gun safety program and have a mental health check, and even then offer specific reasons why you need a gun.  If it is for safety, you are only entitled to one handgun.  If you want to hunt, you have to be part of a registered hunting organization.  You simply can't stockpile weapons like they do in America and make a Christmas card.  I think that's pretty smart, but of course if we really were invaded it wouldn't do us much good, as I don't hunt, and one handgun between us has rather limited value.

I tend to be more optimistic than my wife.  I really don't see why Russia would risk a full engagement with NATO over Lithuania.  There already are quite a few NATO troops stationed here, and the US has augmented those forces with combat troops of its own.  An estimated 1000 US troops are currently deployed in the country.  Also, Lithuania has a sizable army of its own.  So, I like to think we are relatively safe.  However, guys like Jasiukevičius aren't so optimistic.  He thinks we would be run over in a matter of hours.

He hadn't been very optimistic when Russia first invaded Ukraine either, but has had to take back some of his initial sentiments.  Turns out that when pressed to fight, people react pretty strongly, and I think that would be the case here as well.  Lithuania may be small, but as the "Forest Brothers" proved after WWII, resistance is strong.

Still, it is not pleasant being under the constant shadow of Russia.  It is a shadow that has lingered ever since Lithuania's declaration of independence and collapse of the Soviet Union.  The Kremlin has never forgiven Lithuania for beginning the domino effect with its simple act of defiance in the Spring of 1990.  

It surprises me that Lithuania hasn't done more to get itself ready in the event of a Russian invasion, since it lives with this constant dread.  I suppose money factors into it, and the belief that NATO has our backs.  Finland is only now applying for NATO membership.  Still, a country needs to consider the safety of its citizens in times of war, and I hope Lithuania will invest more heavily in underground bunkers and other forms of emergency preparedness so that we don't get caught with our proverbial pants down.  In that sense, I agree with Jasiukevičius.  As George Marshall once said, "the price of peace is eternal vigilance."