A German friend sent me a link to an article by Timothy Snyder on the current situation in Ukraine and how it relates to the United States. It brought to mind a book of his that I read several years ago, The Reconstruction of Nations, in which he charted the different roads toward nationhood of Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine. The running thread was the attempt of all these countries to get out from under the shadow of "Mother Russia." While Snyder felt there were opportunities missed between the wars, in the end they all achieved their basic goal. Until recently anyway. Now, we see an extension of Russian authority in all three countries to one degree or another.
The war in Ukraine has reached a temporary stalemate. Neither side appears able to proceed without massive casualties, so they dig in along their respective lines. This is a situation very similar to the civil war in the Donbas from 2014-22, only now Russia claims these captured territories as their own, and considers any military strike against them as a strike against Russia.
It has become a battle of political wills. Snyder notes in this Vox interview that on the one side you have the centralized authority of Moscow and on the other the decentralized authority of Ukraine. This allows Ukrainian forces to be much more flexible on the field, which is why they have fared as well as they have in this war. It is also a reflection of the two governments, one that is only answerable to itself and the other to the people. Putin can declare victory anytime he likes and has the centralized Russian media to broadcast the message he wants. Zelenskyy doesn't have that luxury. He has to win on the battlefield, having essentially made the war into a reality show where we are all able to see what is going on at virtually any moment.
Snyder goes further to say that the courage demonstrated by the Ukrainians have given us in the West a time to think and re-evaluate the fragile nature of democracy. After investing so much military and humanitarian aid in Ukraine, we can not afford for the Kjiv government to lose. It would send a terrifying message to the world that autocracy has prevailed. We already saw this happen in Kabul. Democracy would subsequently be seen as weak and ineffective, giving further rise to tyrants around the world.
The strains can be felt. The EU backed down on rail restrictions between Moscow and Kaliningrad through Lithuania out of fear the war could spill over into the EU. It doesn't matter that Russia can always supply its detached oblast by sea. The Kremlin wants to preserve its rail corridor through Lithuania as if it is its sovereign right. This is why it is so important to win this war in Ukraine, forcing Russia back on itself and making it re-evaluate its form of government. Otherwise, it will continue its expansion regardless of what the EU or any international organization has to say about it.
This is an existential war of survival for democracy. We could write off Afghanistan because it was remote and not really considered a threat to our own democracy. However, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania are at our border. Losses here would be devastating. The more cushion we give Putin the more he will strive to re-establish the old boundaries of Russia, with growing voices in the Duma even calling for the re-annexation of Alaska!
That's why Eastern Europeans don't understand the hesitance on the part of EU countries like Germany, France and the Netherlands to take bolder action against Russia. Instead, we find ourselves relying mostly on the US and the UK for support, who have the least to lose if Russia was indeed ready to exercise greater territorial ambitions.
For now we content ourselves with the fact that Russia has proven far less effective than it thought it was in pursuing its manifest destiny. A long war in Ukraine will take its toll on Putin. He will increasingly have a more difficult time controlling the narrative with soldiers and even generals sent home in body bags. As it is, he is having a hard time getting young Russians to enlist for service. The horrors of the war are already being conveyed to the Russian public. There is no way to escape it.
Meanwhile, Lithuania finds itself home to not just Belarusian and Ukrainian expats and refugees, but now a steady flow of Russians seeking a safe haven from totalitarian reach of Putin. I see the White-Blue-White flags in many windows in downtown and Russian expats periodically meet at Nemsov Square in front of the Russian embassy to voice their protest to Putin's war. How safe Lithuania is remains to be seen.
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