There seems to be nothing Putin loves more than keeping himself in the spotlight. Calling up 300,000 "reservists" and holding illegal referendums in the four oblasts definitely caught everyone's attention. Not to mention yet another nuclear warning if Russia feels its new borders are threatened.
The UN was alit with angry protests to these referendums. Even China voiced its concerns with the bellicose positions Putin has taken since suffering brutal losses in the Kharkiv region, as reported in the Chinese propaganda network Global Times.
Yet Putin is undeterred. By staging this "vote" in the Ukrainian oblasts, he has extended his boundaries and can now say that any hostilities directed toward the occupied regions is a direct attack on Russian soil. It doesn't matter that many of the original Ukrainians who lived in these oblasts were forcibly extracted from their homes and processed through detention facilities set up in the Donbas region, while many of those remaining were forced at gunpoint to vote yes on the referendum, according to reports.
The brute force of this occupation and referendums is a direct throwback to the Stalin regime. Putin has literally modeled himself upon Koba.
For too long, the West turned the other cheek. It was willing to accept Putin's totalitarian impulses as long as he feigned democracy and continued to supply oil, gas, coal and timber to the EU at low prices. The world stood idly by when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, and made only nominal protest when he invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014.
These incursions have all been coordinated with elections. Putin likes to project himself as the strong man when it comes time to vote. He appears to have shot himself up with botox and painkillers to get through recent meetings, as his limp turned to a swagger and he no longer seemed to be clutching at everything around him to hold himself in place. For the most part, these special military operations have worked. Russians overwhelmingly voted him and his United Russia party back into office each time. However, this time it appears the massive mobilization effort has created a great deal of unrest with many Russians fleeing to the borders to avoid conscription.
These aren't reservists. These are everyday citizens being called up for military duty, ages 18-56. That's quite an age spectrum! One assumes he is trying to fill the vacancies left by expatriated Ukrainians in these occupied oblasts. President Zelensky estimates the number will be closer to 1.2 million when all is said and done. Russia clearly doesn't have the clothing, food or munitions to supply all these men. It has done a poor job outfitting the soldiers it already has in Ukraine, with many of them pilfering local supplies. Given that most of these men will not be in uniform, the Kremlin can claim that Ukraine is attacking civilians. This is much like the "green men" Russia supplied during its first incursion into Ukraine in 2014.
Despite the bald-faced nature of these operations, Putin's mouthpiece, Sergei Lavrov, continues to claim Russia is abiding by international law. His jowls hang a little lower, his eyelids droop a little lower, but it is the same language he has been using for years, only now no one is buying it, not even his friends in China. Whatever tenuous diplomatic channels there were are now gone. Even Emmanuel Macron expressed his exasperation with the situation after giving Putin every benefit of the doubt. It has turned out exactly as Biden called it eight months ago.
Why it has taken this long for other key members of the UN to recognize Putin's totalitarian actions for what they are is anyone's guess? I well imagine it was cheap oil, coal and gas. Now that more European countries brace themselves for a cold winter with the fuel sources they have in reserve, there is no longer any real need to negotiate with Putin. An iron curtain slowly descends along the Russian western border, with a last gasp effort by distraught Russian nationals to flee to neighboring countries. Many of them to Georgia.
The problem is that Putin will never admit defeat, even if mobilizing so many men to Ukraine is essentially an admission of failure. This was supposed to be a three-day operation at most, using his elite forces to incapacitate Ukrainian infrastructure and military bases, and marching into Kjiv as the conquering heroes, just like Tbilisi in 2008. Putin never considered that Ukrainians would defend themselves the way they did. He thought they would roll over like the Georgians.
Nevertheless he persevered, sizing up the situation, as he did in Chechnya and Syria, and deciding that he would beat Ukrainians into submission by firebombing their cities. He even called in the general who oversaw the razing of Aleppo. We witnessed the horrendous siege of Mariupol, leaving behind an empty shell of a city. Yet, Putin can claim it as his own. He will take "victory" anyway he can get it.
He currently claims he has much more firepower than we have already witnessed, but when his forces used hypersonic missiles, or a facsimile thereof, to bomb civilian targets, you really have to wonder what Russia has left in its arsenal. Russia is already shopping in North Korea for more missiles, unable to produce them fast enough to meet their need in Ukraine. We all know that, so one assumes such boasts are for domestic consumption.
However, it no longer seems the Russian public is buying it. Protests have once again materialized all over the country with Putin having to send out his elite mobile units, Omon, to quell the unrest. Again, a direct reference to Stalin. But, whereas Stalin was able to hold the Soviet Union together, it appears Putin's grasp is slipping, largely because he is having to invest too much manpower in Ukraine.
So, Putin finds himself in the global limelight for all the wrong reasons. We are watching a dictator lose control of his empire in real time. Of course, he can still inflict much more damage, even carry through with his threat to use a tactical nuclear weapon. But, these are not shows of strength. These are demonstrations of his incredible weakness. At some point, those left within his inner circle will start looking for a way out of the crisis that Putin has manufactured, if they don't fall down stairs or jump out windows first.
We just have to be ready for any possibility at this point, which it appears the US and its European allies are finally doing.
Comments
Post a Comment