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The Long War


It looks like Ukraine will finally get its jet fighters.  Zelenskiy reached agreements with Denmark and the Netherlands for a small fleet of F-16s, pending approval from the US.  Ukraine could get up to 61 of these combat aircraft over the next two years.  Of course they won't all come at once but it should help ease the situation along the vast border that has been created at the Dnipro river.

Ukraine has been unable to move deep into Russian-held territory due to mine fields.  For a country that was supposedly liberating Ukraine, Russia sure has an odd way of showing it.  They've planted hundreds of thousands of these mines throughout the country.  They seem to be the most advanced weapons Russia has, as Kinzhals continue to be shot down regularly, the great "hypersonic missiles" Russian leaders said would drive a dagger through Ukraine's heart.  This has become a war of attrition and Russia plans to use everything at its disposal to hang onto its newly acquired territories, hoping that world leaders will grow weary and force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Russia didn't even show up for the peace talks in Jeddah.  They claim they weren't invited.  Not that it would have accomplished anything because Russia has reneged on all its agreements dating back to Minsk in the wake of their annexation of Crimea.  The only hope is that Saudi Arabia or Turkey or China can put some pressure on Russia to ease up but that's not likely either because the Kremlin thinks it is winning and so continues to press not only in Ukraine but now has allowed its renegade Wagner forces to spread themselves out in Belarus with the intention of causing unease along NATO borders.  However, it seems these forces aren't getting paid enough to cover their expenses and many of these Russian mercenaries are leaving Belarus.

I really don't know what the Kremlin has in mind here anyway.  If Wagner forces were to attack any part of the border along the Suwalki Gap, they would trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty and it would be much more than a few F-16s that would begin to rain down on Russian forces.  Maybe Putin wants an all out war given that's what he's been telling his people is already happening.  How else to justify his numerous defeats in Ukraine?

The propaganda efforts continue on numerous levels.  One of the most absurd is an American Scott Bennett who has become the darling of Iranian media by promoting the idea that the US created the latest strain of coronavirus in Ukrainian biolabs.  He even goes so far as to make a link to Hunter Biden and by relationship his father Joe.  It's garbage he picked up from Russian and Chinese propaganda sites and is now pitching on X and other social media sites for all to see.  He even believes this virus was specifically engineered to target Slavic DNA.  But aren't Ukrainians Slavic?

Meanwhile, the strain of a long war is starting to show in Russia's beleaguered economy.  The ruble tanked and the Kremlin had to play with the stock market to help bolster it in recent weeks.  This from a country that wants to promote a new currency to rival the dollar as to make oil exports more competitive.  Not that this would matter either as Europe has cut back dramatically on Russian oil and gas imports, leaving the Kremlin to find other buyers as it has oversaturated friendly Asian markets.

Russia is more isolated than ever but still makes a big show of being a player on the international stage by hosting an African Summit.  Most African leaders chose not to attend, sending surrogates in their place.  What African countries wanted most was a free flow of grain products but that isn't coming.  Putin just used this as a photo opportunity, standing next to the shortest African leader, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt.  However, Vlad did manage to stir up some unrest in Niger, where the military staged a coup with the help of his Wagner buddies telling locals what a friend they have in Russia.

It's interesting to see Russia essentially resort to guerilla tactics to hold onto its "land bridge" to Crimea.  Not the best sign for a country that views itself as a military superpower.  The F-16s will help Ukraine traverse the mine fields assuming they get them sooner rather than later.  From what I heard last night on the news, Denmark and the Netherlands plan to deliver the fighter jets in waves stretching all the way to 2025.  So, it looks both sides have to dig in for a long war, which is what everyone feared would happen.

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