A Razor's Edge

Either LP has a very bad sense of geography or her timing is way off.  She was scheduled to perform in Kaunas next week but her concert was abruptly cancelled when she proudly showed off a hoodie she received from adoring Russian fans on the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.  

To be fair the American singer, who is more famous for the songs she has written for Lady Gaga and Beyonce, has shown her support of Ukraine, but the hoodie literally raised a red flag in a country where any symbol of the former Soviet Union and Russian aggression is banned.  I suppose the hoodie falls outside of the ban but has not been well received in the media.   

There is a lot of consternation right now as Ukraine is suffering losses along the front line and worry has grown that Russia will mobilize forces along the Baltic borders.  Putin has been more aggressive lately with faux elections coming up.  He's had his "justice department" put numerous Baltic political leaders on the Russian wanted list for removing Soviet memorials and statues, which he regards as Russian property.  Add to this all the turmoil in the United States with Eastern European countries fearing a potential Trump presidency will be the death knell of NATO and leave these countries isolated once again.

Stepping into the breach is Emmanuel Macron.  He's vacillated considerably over the last two years but now is calling for European countries to put troops on the ground in Ukraine.  Why this sudden change in heart is anyone's guess but the response among other European leaders was lukewarm to the say the least.  It's been difficult getting badly needed supplies to the front line, much less adding manpower which would then truly make this World War III, or World War Z to use the Russian parlance.

Putin has promised to add up to half a million troops in Ukraine, essentially making the occupied territories thoroughly Russified.  Ukrainians either fled or were deported during the siege so that there are not many left in the former oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which Putin now regards as independent countries.  Ukraine has been left with a tiny stretch of beachfront on the Black Sea at Odessa, which Russia would dearly love to claim as well.  It would allow them to link their newly claimed territory to Transnistria, a little enclave in Moldova that still waves its Soviet era flag.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is powerless to seize any kind of initiative along the front line.  Its military forces are barely holding onto the gains they made in late 2022.  The offensive stalled in 2023 as Russia had dug in all along the Dnipro River over the long winter, making it very difficult for Ukraine to make additional gains last fall. Then came the breakdown in Congress, which put on hold a $60 billion relief package, followed shortly thereafter by the war in Israel.  With attention fully diverted, Ukraine no longer held the media's eye.  

What news it received wasn't favorable, pointing to corruption within the military ranks and a lack of accountability of aid that was received.  Most of these reports were greatly overblown but the damage was done with some in the West calling for Zelenskyy to step down.  Instead, he did some house cleaning, hoping to boost sagging morale along the front line and improve accountability.

We've also seen the rise of the Orange blob in Donald Trump, who is determined to make himself relevant on the campaign trail.  He's effectively been able to exert his will over the Republican-led House, calling for the Speaker to hold up any funding packages until November.  He doesn't want Biden getting any favorable press, not like he has gotten much the past year, hoping that Americans will sour on "Crooked Joe" and return him to office.  While the majority of Americans would like to see a new face in the White House, the last person many of them want to see is Donald Trump.

This has led to a lot of angst in Europe, particularly up here in the Baltics, as we all know where Trump stands on NATO and American military aid to the region.  Daina was feeling particularly morose last night as we watched a gloomy segment on LRT news.  Lithuanians have always been a rather pessimistic lot, having had to endure both Soviet and Russian occupation.  Even with Biden at the helm, many fear NATO would not invoke Article 5 if Russia were to invade the country.  This led Daina once again to ponder what we would do in this situation.

NATO already has considerable forces in the Baltics so an attack on any one of these countries, which now includes Finland and Sweden, would be an attack on the entire organization.  There would be severe repercussions but the worry is that once Russia invades it would be very hard to get them back out again as we are seeing in Ukraine.

Sadly, I'm beginning to think the only way out of this impasse is for Ukraine to let go of the occupied territories and welcome the country into NATO and the EU.  Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen floated this idea late last year.  Neither side fully gets what it wants but it would most likely bring the war to a temporary end.  Russia would of course militarize the entire region, as they have Crimea, but then NATO would likewise have to move its line of defense to Eastern Europe, not Germany where its military bases are currently located.  It brings us back to the Cold War, but then we have been in a cold war ever since Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014.

Most importantly, Europe has to cut all ties with Russia, economically and diplomatically, as there really is no point maintaining anything more than the bare minimum of communication.  This also means rooting out Putin's agents in the West like Orban, and now the slimy prime minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, another Putinista trying to play both sides.

Needless to say, LP didn't know what she was getting into when she proudly showed off her hoodie on instagram.  She has since apologized and reiterated her support of Ukraine, but everyone is very sensitive over here and it doesn't take much to stir up indignation and anger.  We are living on a razor's edge, especially in a tiny country like Lithuania.