Our Poland moment

At least 34 killed in missile strike on Sumy

When the war first broke out in Ukraine, the Lithuanian Prime Minister Šimonytė called it our "Poland moment," referring to Hitler's attack on Poland in 1939.  Had Putin been able to overrun Ukraine the way Hitler had Poland, it very well could have been the start of WWIII.  In many ways it still is because NATO was relatively quick to come to the defense of Ukraine and help the country hold off the Russian onslaught with a steady supply of munitions.

Witless Steve Witkoff proudly announced he had reached a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea after what he described as "compelling" talks with Putin.  This hasn't stopped Vlad the Impaler from continually firing on Ukrainian cities, including the Black Sea city of Odessa, which was hit with a barrage of missiles and drones this week.  Nevertheless, the Trump administration presses on, using a combination of "diplomacy" and Trump rants on social media to vent his frustration and anger that neither side is committing itself to these negotiations.  Most of that ire has been vented on Ukraine.  

To this point, American opinion is not on Trump's side.  The vast majority of Americans hold Russia responsible for the war, not Ukraine.  Even more startling, 48% of Americans see Trump siding with Russia, as opposed to 8% that see him siding with Ukraine.  The nagging question is why Trump seems to be going out of his way to appease Russia.  Even when confronted with the deadly Russian attack on Sumy last weekend, Trump refused to blame Russia.  Instead he called out Zelensky by saying, "you don't start a war with someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you missiles."

I suppose Trump was referring to land area, as Russia's manpower is maybe three times the size of Ukraine, so it can't carry on this war indefinitely. Putin knows this and is looking for as many concessions as he can get from the Trump administration and hoping that the US shoves those concessions down the throat of Ukraine.  Not surprisingly, Zelensky has refused to play the patsy, which galls Trump as he was hoping to end this war in 24 hours.

Zelensky has refused to sign mineral deals, refused to accept ceasefires that have no appreciable benefit for his country and most recently fired back at VP Vance for "somehow justifying Putin's actions," referring to Vance as a point man for the Kremlin.

VP Vance has indeed become more outspoken, even contradicting his President behind closed doors.  He is exceedingly aggressive in his rhetoric, calling Chinese "peasants" in the ongoing trade war, and once again chastising Denmark for not doing enough to protect Greenland in the little speech he gave at "Ice Station Zebra" after the dogsled race fell through.  He's also been very harsh on Zelensky, and was infuriated when accused of siding with Russia.  If the shoe fits ....

The even bigger question is why this administration has gone out of its way to distance itself from traditional allies and appease long-standing foes.  It's not like Russia has any real interest in doing business with the US.  Putin has said himself he would make it very hard for Western companies to return to Russia after the sanctions that were imposed on his country. Besides, a big part of Trump's "America First" agenda is bringing industry back to the US, not outsourcing it to Russia.  However, Russia sits atop a shit ton of rare earth elements, and guys like Elon Musk want to get their hands on them.  Their tech industries pretty much depend on them.

This is also why the Trump administration wants Greenland and is demanding Ukraine cede all its mineral rights to the US.  In exchange for what, Zelensky dared to ask?  It turns out nothing.  Trump simply saw it as a way for Ukraine to "pay back" the US for all the military and economic aid it delivered over the past three years.

The cynicism is breathtaking, and has left EU countries scrambling to make up for the shortfall in Ukraine after Trump froze the delivery of goods ratified by Congress and President Biden last year.  Mostly, Ukraine wants to be better able to defend its cities from the ceaseless missile attacks by Russia that have destroyed an estimated $200 billion in housing and left over 12,000 civilians dead across the country. The best missile defense system available to Ukraine is the Patriot system.  Much of it sitting in Europe.  The US military signed an agreement with Germany in 2024 to begin producing Patriot missiles in Europe to meet the insatiable demand, but I imagine these plans are now stalled under Trump.

Several EU countries expressed their concern that the US could put "kill switches" on this hardware like John Deere did the tractors that were earmarked for Ukraine.  When these tractors were stolen by Russians, John Deere flipped the kill switch, rendering the tractors useless.  Musk essentially did the same with Starlink when Ukraine made its big surge back in the Fall of 2022, and threatened to push Russia back into the Black Sea, and now here is the US threatening to do the same if Ukraine doesn't sign that $500 billion mineral deal.

Putin must truly be enjoying this.  There is literally nothing to impede his "military actions." Until EU countries begin producing more munitions, Ukraine is at the mercy of the US to continue to supply it with badly needed missiles to thwart the never-ending barrage on its cities.

Throughout this war, Ukraine has had to fight with one arm tied behind its back.  It has continually had to negotiate with the US and NATO to increase the distance it can fire its missiles into Russia to take out launching sites and other military infrastructure.  Ukraine could have done like Russia and indiscriminately hit apartment blocks but it hasn't.  Even in its attack on the Kursk region, Ukraine was careful to take out military infrastructure, not make life any more miserable for residents than need be. Of course, the Kremlin claimed scores of Russian civilians were killed during the surprise offensive, but the governor of the region said only four were killed.  

No war is humane but if Ukraine had adopted the same scorched earth strategy as Russia, Kursk would be leveled to the ground as was the case with Mariupol. This is what the former Azov Sea port looked like after the Russian attack in 2022.  Putin has tried to make Mariupol into a Potemkin Village but the scars remain.

Yet, Witless Steve Witkoff continues to insist that Putin is a man that can be reasoned with.  He raves of the negotiations he has with Russian officials on Fox News and has praised Putin repeatedly.  It appears that the Trump administration is caving into virtually all of the Russian demands in an effort to end this war.  Witkoff has offered little resistance much to the chagrin of hardline Republicans, but what can they do?  They have conceded the party to Trump and have been reduced to merely witnesses in what will be remembered as a deal worse than Yalta if it is ever finalized.  

If Trump and Putin have their way, Europe will once again be divided into spheres of influence with the increased likelihood that Russia will make a play for Eastern European countries as the Soviet Union did after WWII.  If that is the case, the whole region will be plunged into war.  What then?