Back in the USSR

Paul McCartney Live at Red Square, 2005

It's really hard to figure out what is going on these days.  Moldova recently survived a massive propaganda assault by the Kremlin and voted for a pro-EU government by just over 50% - a clear majority. The Russian backed party finished a distant second with 24 percent. Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, a pro-Russian party headed by Billionaire Andrej Babiš won that country's parliamentary elections with 35 percent.  I don't know if he will be able to form a ruling coalition but the threat is clear, as the Czech Republic has been a major military and logistical supporter of Ukraine the past three-and-a-half years and Babiš actively campaigned against lending any more support to Ukraine.

What makes this odd is that Moldova is much more readily threatened by Russia, as the Kremlin has vowed to beef up its military presence in Transnistria to 10,000 troops.  Transnistria never accepted Moldovan independence in 1991 and has remained a vassal state of Russia for the past 35 years.  It's population is primarily ethnic Russian, left over from the Soviet State of Moldova, when the Kremlin split Moldova from Romania, retaining the north eastern section of the country.  You would think that Moldovans would be more easily influenced but apparently the bad blood runs deep, much like it does in Ukraine, and they rejected the overt Russian influence in their campaign.

Not so in the Czech Republic, where a significant portion of the country voted for a well-known Russian apologist in the mold of Orban and Fico and threatens to drag the country down the same path as Hungary and Slovakia.  It's a problem throughout Central Europe.  Poland recently elected a national populist and Putin sympathizer as President by a very narrow margin.  The parliament still remains in the control of a pro-EU party led by Donald Tusk.  It's hard to understand all this anti-EU sentiment, given Eastern European countries get so much in the way of EU subsidies that greatly benefits their economies.

That is certainly the case here in Lithuania, where EU money funds everything from massive highway improvements to a new 300 million euro sports stadium in Vilnius that few people think we need at the moment.  Yet, we saw a similar backlash occur when the Social Democrats won last year's parliamentary elections and allied themselves with a new populist party, Nemunas Aušra to form a coalition government.  No one quite knew what this new party stood for but in recent months it has become quite evident that they too are pro-Russian with strong agricultural interests in Russia.  It is one of the back doors as sanctions don't affect food products and many in this party are in the food and beverage industry.  Hence, it has become known as Nemunas Dešra or the Nemunas Sausage Party.  The Nemunas being a river that cuts through Lithuania.

These people have business ties to Russia that they value more than their countries' ties to the EU.  Babiš made his initial fortune off Agrofert, an agricultural company that soon spread to petrochemicals and other interests, diversifying his portfolio. He then bought up media companies that have allowed him to control the narrative in the country. He has aligned himself with neo-fascist leaders like Sebastian Kurz of Austria, and no doubt is a friend of Trump.  Babiš and other populists largely influence the rural vote, which has been the most deeply affected in terms of the highs and lows that come with EU transition.  Lithuanian politician Žemaitaitis is small potatoes compared to Babiš but has learned to manipulate the media very successfully, even more successfully than his mentor Ramūnas Karbauskis, who owns the largest portion of Lithuanian agricultural lands but fell out of favor with the public.

At least Babiš was upfront about his political interests.  Here in Lithuania, voters got duped big time.  They voted in the Social Democrats last year thinking they were the same Social Democrats of the past but they appear to have been infiltrated by a number of pro-Russian MPs.  Even worse, they allied themselves with unsavory parties from the right-wing of the political spectrum, including Karbauskis' old party The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union.  Now, Lithuanians are very definitely having buyers' remorse, but it is too late.  The President seems just fine with this coalition, meaning voters have to wait three years until the next parliamentary elections.

This gradual erosion of European solidarity plays right into Putin's hands. He doesn't even have to invade Eastern European countries, as many fear, it is enough for him to stir up dissent within these countries and let the EU crumble on its own accord.  The EU requires a unanimous vote to pass any binding resolution and with several countries now antagonist toward EU interests it will be very difficult for the EU to remain defiant toward Russia.

As the EU grew it became increasingly difficult for the parliament in Brussels to hold these countries together. The oddest part is that the United States has also been trying to erode EU resolve ever since Bush's first term, 2001-2005.  Then it was fear the newly formed Euro would rival the Dollar for international dominance and in time the EU would have an economy greater than the US. However, the Bush team was largely favorable toward Eastern European countries, fast-tracking NATO approval.  The "New Europe" they called it. Now, it appears the Trump administration has entered into a covert agreement with Russia to split Europe along Cold War lines with the Eastern European countries returning to the Russian (nee Soviet) sphere of influence, while the US maintains its economic hegemony over Western Europe.  

This has led to a lot of concern on the part of EU leaders with many openly stating that Trump and Putin and have entered into an agreement similar to the notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that divided Europe in 1939.  Many leaders feel that Trump cannot be trusted despite his recent overtures toward Ukraine or that there are far more sinister forces at work behind the scenes that we are not privy to.  Here is former Lithuanian Pres. Dalia Grybauskaitė on English-speaking Polish television station TVP.

Whatever the case it certainly does appear that pro-Russian forces have proven very adroit at manipulating elections and influencing political parties to form coalitions favorable to their interests.  They may have failed in tiny Moldova but the Czech Republic is a much bigger prize.  If they can break down Lithuania this would open the door to re-establishing their land corridor to Kaliningrad.  Unfortunately, too many voters are either unable or unwilling to see the bigger picture, a return to Cold War boundaries that would greatly impact their economies and cultural legacies.  It is really sad to see this happening right before my eyes.