It was supposed to be a Republican trifecta -- three easy wins in Magaland -- reaffirming that Trump is still strong among the Republican base. Yesterday, saw a runoff for governor in Louisiana. Trump wanted this state badly as he had lost Kentucky when Bevin finally conceded defeat earlier this week. Trump went to the Deep South state not once but twice during the run-off to try to lift the Republican businessman Eddie Rispone across the finish line, only to personally witness yet another defeat. In the end, the only state Trump could still claim to have a hold over is Mississippi, but even here the Republican barely defeated his Democratic challenger.
The media was going to treat these elections as a referendum on Trump no matter what, but the president made it that much easier by making the gubernatorial races all about himself in his pleas to conservative voters to send a message to the country that they still love him.
Louisiana is worse than Kentucky for Trump because he, the RNC, and conservative PAC's invested so much time and money in the state. Rispone outspent Bel Edwards by a staggering sum of money. Rispone poured 14 million of his own money into the campaign. He attached himself to Trump from beginning to end, spouting the same vitriolic nonsense and expecting Louisianans to vote for him out of fealty to Trump.
By contrast, Bel Edwards ran as himself, an incumbent governor who straddled the line between social conservative issues and the need to lift health, education and welfare in the state. Louisiana ranks near the bottom in every category. In some ways, he's a throwback to the old days in the gulf state when conservatives were Democrats. He certainly is not a progressive by any stretch of the imagination. Most importantly, he knows how to appeal to Louisianans personal sense of self, using the Trump message against Rispone, by urging voters not to let the president or anyone else tell them how to vote.
It was really stupid for Republicans to invest so much energy in this state to begin. Bel Edwards is a popular governor. Rispone was at best a long shot. The developer wasn't particularly colorful or articulate. Ralph Abraham was more personable and might have stood a better chance against Bel Edwards in a run-off, but Republicans chose to rally behind Eddie the Builder. His website reads like an obituary.
So, where do we stand now? Less than a year out from the general election in 2020, Trump endures bitter defeats in the Deep South and Big Coal country. These states were supposed to be part of Trump's "fire wall," yet they now seem as vulnerable as any state in the country. While it is unlikely a Democratic presidential candidate will win these states, Trump's weak standing opens the door to the possible defeat of Moscow Mitch in Kentucky and Smarmy Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. Even Mississippi is not that safe, as Confederate Cindy Hyde-Smith faces another bitter election after barely winning the special election in 2018 to fill Thad Cochran's seat.
This means Republicans will have to defend themselves across the board -- a tall order given they have 23 contested seats, whereas the Democrats only have to defend 12 seats. The RNC was counting on these being safe states so that they could pour more money into Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Senators face very tough challenges. The GOP only has a +3 differential in the Senate to play with.
Republicans appear to have no strategy other than to ally themselves to Trump. Bevin was the most reviled governor in the country. Rispone had very little appeal. Reeves won in Mississippi by default. Republicans lack energetic young candidates that can appeal beyond the Trump base. So, they try to paint their opponents in the most demagogic terms imaginable, as if they are the true patriots defending the cultural integrity of this country, and hope that Trump can somehow carry them over the line.
The GOP failed to understand that their surprise victory in 2016 wasn't about Trump's personal charm, which he has none, but rather the incredible antipathy many Americans had toward Hillary Clinton. Trump won not because of his enthusiastic MAGA supporters, but because moderate Republicans and conservative Independents and Democrats were more appalled by a Clinton dynasty than they were a Reality Show President. They voted against Hillary, not for Trump. Something the mainstream media still appears to miss, even as most polls show Trump reduced to his MAGA supporters, with approval numbers in the low 40s.
It is not enough to just defeat Trump, Democrats have to regain Congress if they hope to erase the horrible legacy Trump and his Republican cohorts have left behind. Mitch's main aim for the past three years has been to reshape the judiciary by putting in place as many conservative federal judges as he can, including two on the Supreme Court, so that conservatives can use the federal courts to stymie any potential Democratic legislation. For him, Trump has never been anything more than a patsy to approve his judges.
The irony is that Republicans now find themselves in an untenable situation. The more they continue to support Trump, the more likely they are to lose statewide elections throughout the country. Even their gerrymandered districts no longer assure them a Republican majority in state legislatures, as turned out to be the case in Virginia. Trump fatigue has set in. No amount of spin by Fox News or other conservative outlets can change that fact.
Americans are sick and tired of Trump making a mockery of this country. Most would like to see him impeached. There are no more "big wins" left for him. Only a series of embarrassing losses that started back in December, 2017, when Democrat Doug Jones won a special election for Jeff Sessions' Senate seat in Alabama. A seat Sessions now wants to reclaim but has to get by the pedophile ex-judge Roy Moore first. Republicans have boxed themselves in. They can't win in the primaries without pledging their fealty to Trump, but they can't win in general elections without distancing themselves from Trump. As Stan would say to Ollie, well, it's another nice mess you have gotten me into.
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