Even though Joe Biden has apparently expanded his lead in national polls to 14 per cent, you have to wonder why it is even that close. The Trump campaign has been an absolute train wreck, even before the Republican National Convention, and it is on the brink of total collapse. Yet, he still polls within six percentage points in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and is in a virtual dead heat in Ohio and Florida.
Biden was neither my first, second or third choice as Democratic nominee, but I will gladly vote for him over Trump because he is simply the better man. I'm sure that's the way many Democrats feel, as they put their country over their party favorites.
We hear about the many high profile Republican defections, yet Trump still enjoys an approval rating of 94% among the base of the party. I suppose Republicans are determined to stick with their nominee come full or partial dementia, but do they really think this man has done a good job as president?
It is hard to put a finger on this level of devotion, especially when he is so obviously a fraud. However, Republicans are driven more by social issues than they are economic and global issues. Abortion and gay rights remain the two most pressing concerns for many religious conservatives within the party. The Libertarian branch of the party, led by Rand Paul and Mike Lee, is very small, but still holds its allegiance to Trump largely because of his so-called "free market" economic policies. Many thought this odd confluence would break the party apart, but where else have these Libertarians to turn? Jo Jorgensen is not someone very many people have heard of.
It's not even Libertarianism that they champion but a form of anarcho-capitalism that calls for the elimination of a centralized state. In theory, they believe that business is self-regulatory and that it is government that impedes a free market by imposing restrictions that work to the detriment of owners and labor alike.
Of course, this is a denial of everything that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution. In fact, it was their own Republican Party that initiated labor laws in the early 20th century, championed by Teddy Roosevelt, to improve the working conditions of the vast majority of Americans. It was their party that also introduced income tax in the form of the Revenue Act of 1861. Business has never been self-regulatory but rather self-absorbed in its quest for the lowest costs so that it can reap the largest profits, and pay as little tax as possible on these profits. Even if it means declaring enormous losses, as we have seen in the president's tax returns.
Greed and a highly toxic interpretation of the Bible appear to be the driving force of the Republican Party these days and no one better exemplifies that than Donald J. Trump. This may explain why 30 percent of the electorate will vote for Trump, the approximate number of Republicans in America, but why is Biden only polling around 50 percent in the polls? Who are these other 20 percent?
One assumes these are reasonably intelligent persons who don't subscribe to one or another party. They probably would vote for a Libertarian candidate if they felt that candidate had a chance to win. As it was in 2016, roughly 5 percent of them voted for other candidates, mostly for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. They seem to be anti-government, but hold up their noses and vote for one or another of the major party candidates thinking that person is the lesser of the two evils.
If we look at current polling today, this sizable electorate has chosen to go with Biden by a roughly 3 to 2 margin, thereby tilting the scales in his favor. But, that could change the closer we get to election day, as these voters can hardly be counted on to stick with a candidate. Many probably won't vote at all, thereby shrinking the playing field for Trump in his bid to return to the White House.
The strategy of the Republican Party is to shrink the playing field to as small a size as possible so that the election comes down to who can get their base to the relative handful of polls on election day. Many Republican-led states have limited absentee ballot drop-off sites and polling places in a bid to discourage voters from casting their ballots. Democratic-led states have done the opposite by mailing absentee ballots to all registered voters, increasing drop-off sites and running ads to counter the misleading information of the Republicans. Still, many voters consider themselves Independent, whatever that means today, and there is no way to determine the impact of all these measures until after all the votes are counted, which may take weeks after the election.
It will take a massive landslide victory for Biden to avoid the limbo that will ensue, as Republicans challenge the ballots across the country, taking it all the way to the Supreme Court if need be, where they hope to enjoy a 6-3 advantage in the highest court of the land, if Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed before November 3.
We haven't seen an attempt to short-circuit the election process in this country in a very long time. Not even the infamous case of Florida in 2000 compares to this. You have to go all the way back to 1876 when that election was thrown into Congress because no clear winner could be determined, with the Republican Rutherford B. Hayes winning by a single electoral vote, and nullifying the Democrat Samuel J. Tilden's popular victory.
Trump doesn't care how he wins, only that he wins. This is less an attempt to save the Republican party as it is to save himself from prosecution for another four years. At the very least, to avoid paying the huge penalty the IRS has waiting for him over his fraudulent tax returns. As such, you would think Republicans would be anxious to purge this notorious tax dodger from their ranks. Instead, they seem to be going out of their way to help him return to office. The only prominent Republicans to come out against Trump are those currently retired from office.
This of course leads many to wonder what Trump is holding against these Republicans in office. It is easy to say it is the high approval rating he has among the Republican base, but what good does that do you in a state like Maine, Colorado, Arizona or even South Carolina, where Lindsey Graham finds himself in a surprisingly tight race with Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. You have to have more than your base to win a general election, which you would think these embattled Republicans would understand?
The same holds true for Trump. It doesn't matter that he has 94 percent of support among Republicans. Biden enjoys that same level of support among Democrats. What you have to do is convince Independent voters that you are at the very least the lesser of two evils, or at least sully the election to the point they don't bother to show up to the polls at all, which appears to be what Trump tried to do at the last debate. These so-called Independents are so cynical that no matter how badly Trump comports himself in public, they see Biden as no better. That appears to be why Biden has a tough time cracking 50 percent in these battleground states.
I don't like the gridlock in Washington anymore than the next person, but I know where it stems from. Republicans have repeatedly refused to compromise on any major piece of legislation ever since they retook Congress in 1994. As a result, Democrats have been forced to compromise on virtually every piece of legislation, from the notorious crime bill, in 1994, to the even more notorious Homeland Security Act, sponsored by the Bush administration in 2002. It has been "my way or the highway" for the Republicans for the past 25 years, largely because they think they have been sitting in the catbird seat regardless of who is president. The one and only time they lost a legislative fight was over the Affordable Care Act in 2010, which was a very bitter pill to swallow.
So, they stand behind Trump the way they stand behind their Contract with America and let the rest of the country or for that matter the world be damned. They would rather have a demented septuagenarian in office, who continues to refuse to admit we are fighting a beastly pandemic despite having contracted the virus himself, and thinks that by some magic everything will return to normal next year. That is of course if he is re-elected, as only he has this magic wand.
We are only going to move forward once we put this highly toxic behavior behind us. Joe Biden may not be the ideal candidate to steer us through these transformative times, but at least he still has a functioning brain and will build an administration that will recognize the daunting reality that faces us, not just in getting past this pandemic but rebuilding an economy that will respond to the new challenges that have been created by global warming. Yes, both of these are real. They can no longer be ignored. So, I'm counting on at least half of those 20 percent of Libertarian-minded Americans to recognize that this election is much bigger than their cynicism toward government.
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