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Poking the Bear

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When you see images like this, you think shit the Chinese have Taiwan surrounded!  Those are pretty big chunks of sea, however, and it will take much more than 68 aircraft and 13 water vessels to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan, lest it end up like the Bay of Pigs.  This was basically a fireworks show, similar to the one Trump put on for Mr. Xi when the Chinese premier was in Mar-a-Lago back in 2017, only this time the intended recipient was Nancy Pelosi.

It is hard to understand why Xi would get so rattled by an 82-year-old woman's visit to an island nation.  It's not like anything new was discussed.  The US has always assured Taiwan it will come to its defense, should it need it.  A mutual defense pact dates back to 1954 when Chiang Kai-Shek was forced to retreat to the island in the wake of the Mao revolution.  Yet, China acts like this is a renewal of hostilities after warning Ms. Pelosi repeatedly not to visit Taiwan.  Little old ladies don't like being told what to do.  Rubbing salt in the wound, she visited South Korea and Japan, further stating American intentions to protect regional interests.

None of this would have happened without White House approval.  I think to a certain degree, the Biden administration enjoyed poking Winnie the Pooh.  Xi can't stand being upstaged by small countries or women.  China had tried to place a trade embargo on Lithuanian goods last year when the small country recognized the Taiwan representative office in Vilnius.  It didn't do much good as China imports little from Lithuania.  It only hurt construction and building material supply companies here, as they import large quantities of cheap building materials from China.  The EU and US ended up supporting Lithuania, much to the chagrin of Xi Jinping.  Taiwan also picked up the tab on the handful of goods that were stuck in transit, further insulting the Secretary General.  It was mostly a temporary inconvenience for those who like to shop at Alibaba.  

I suppose you have to be cautious.  You never know when China might lose its patience, but Taiwan is not undefended and it would take a massive invading force to conquer the country.  Taiwan is after all a nation of 24 million persons with a standing army roughly comparable to China when you take into account reservists.  Xi just might end up with mud in his eye, as it has turned out for Comrade Putin.  I don't think he wants to risk that embarrassment.

China has been trying to consolidate its power ever since Xi Jinping took over in 2013.  Initially, Mr. Xi pledged to stick with the "one country, two systems" policy that had been established by Ding Xiaoping when he negotiated the annexation of Hong Kong and Macau in the 1990s. However, the 2019 uprising in Hong Kong severely tested his patience for such open systems of government and he was forced to clamp down, lest he lose face with the Communist party. 

According to Fareed Zakaria this served as a warning to Taiwan, but not in the way China had intended.  The relatively successful relationship between China and Hong Kong had led many in Taiwan to believe they could be peacefully integrated into China, but the events of 2019-2020 radically changed those views.  Since then Taiwan has sought to distance itself from China, and strengthen its bonds with other countries.

Once again, Lithuania figured into the mix, as Hong Kong protesters referenced Lithuania's own breakaway independence in 1990, even forming a human chain much like the Baltic Way at one point.  The event marked the 30th anniversary of the human chain that stretched across the Baltic states in 1989.  Here in Vilnius, about 200 Lithuanians turned out in support of Hong Kong in Cathedral Square, and were met by a handful of angry Chinese embassy workers staging a counter protest.  This seemingly innocent protest precipitated the crisis between the two countries.

I've never much liked China's presence in Lithuania.  They have always tried to bully the country.  They even managed to corner the market on linen at one point, a revered industry in this country, with the hope that they could flood our market with cheap Chinese linen.  Why they would even bother with a country of 3 million persons I have no idea.  All I can say is the situation has improved ever since China banned trade with Lithuania.

Taiwan doesn't have the luxury of distance.  China could make life a living hell for them if it wanted to, but I imagine that once Mr. Xi finishes his little temper tantrum things will return to normal, relatively speaking anyway. I had wanted to give this guy the benefit of the doubt back in 2017, but now it is clear he is a mean-spirited bully just like other autocrats around the world.  All power to Nancy Pelosi for getting under his skin.


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