As we inch toward E-Day we are being led to believe that support for Kamala Harris is eroding and that President Trump once again is seen as inevitable. I really don't get these projections especially given how off the rails Trump has been ever since Kamala replaced Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. In recent weeks, he has appeared disoriented and lost. Take for example a "town hall" hosted by the infamous dog-killer Kristi Noem where Trump broke into dance about half way through and quit fielding questions. No problemo with his audience, which joined him in celebrating his favorite songs. Is this really the kind of guy Americans want to see in office for the next four years?
According to Nate Silver, yes. He has revised his projection yet again, giving the Trumpster a 50.2% chance of winning the electoral college. I wouldn't put too much stock in Nate's projections, as he reversed course while still at 538 in 2022 to give the Republicans a 60% of taking the Senate in the closing weeks of the midterm campaign. This projection was largely based on Pennsylvania, where he predicted Dr. Oz would beat Fetterman. In the end, Fetterman beat Oz by 4 percent.
Currently Casey leads McCormick by 9 percent for the Senate seat from Pennsylvania, a margin he has consistently held throughout the campaign. I imagine the polls will tighten up, as they so often do, but the question remains why is Casey, a Democrat, polling so far ahead of McCormick, while Harris is barely edging out Trump? 538 currently shows a razor thin 0.4% difference in its aggregate poll. Do pollsters really think Pennsylvanians will split their ballots this Fall?
On down the line, you see Democrats fairing much better in "battleground states" than Kamala. One can sort of see this in Arizona or Nevada, traditionally Republican states that in recent years have edged toward Democrats, mostly because of MAGA candidates that have turned some Republicans off. Yet, here again why would these more moderate Republicans vote for Trump? He is Chief MAGA himself!
It just doesn't make any sense, and if 2022 is any bellwether, it looks like these polls are grossly underestimating Kamala Harris' strength, primarily in a ground force that dwarfs that of Donald Trump. Since she entered the race in July, her campaign has assembled a massive volunteer force going door to door to get out the vote. This effort is coordinated by over 2500 paid staff members in 353 offices spread out over the battleground states. That's roughly 50 offices per state. Volunteers number in the 100s of 1000s.
Trump has nothing like this. He ceded ground operations to big money backers like Musk, who are relying primarily on the internet to get out the vote. It's a lazy approach of setting up websites where persons register their names and pertinent information only to be bombarded with emails and social media ads. These sites don't provide any links to actual voter registration pages. As a result, there is no way to gauge whether these Trump supporters actually registered. Most I think just became annoyed.
The other thing is that we hear all about the massive contributions of Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson to PACs supporting Trump, but very little about the Harris campaign having raised over $1 billion in three months, most of which from small donations. What does it matter that Elon has given Trump $75 million if much of it is squandered on a PAC that seems nothing more than blatant self promotion. Even at Trump rallies, Musk is calling attention to himself more so than he is Trump, as if he is the ultimate power broker. Back in 2022, Musk went all in on the Republicans at the last minute only to lose his shirt.
There really is nothing to indicate that Trump has a massive groundswell that will carry him on election day, anymore than the Republicans thought they had a "red wave" building in 2022. It is all smoke and mirrors, distorted even further by polls largely sponsored by media companies that profit by keeping viewers and readers on the edge of their seats.
Granted, it works. I worry that Kamala might come up short in the electoral college, but then I look at what is happening on the ground and see that she has a massive advantage. Not to mention that Democrats are polling well in all the battleground states, including Arizona where Gallegos leads Kari Lake by 8 points in that Senate race. Trump and Lake go hand in hand. Why should someone not voting for Lake vote for Trump?
While it doesn't look like Democrats will hold onto the Senate, they will most likely retake the House. Even if the Republicans take the Senate, the best they can hope for is a 51-49 advantage, where it will only take one defection to kill their attempts to block Kamala Harris' judicial appointments. Democrats will still be able to push legislation, as long as it remains reasonable to a handful of Republican Senators to get it passed. Kamala has been tacking toward the middle in recent weeks to show that she is willing to work with Republicans. Meanwhile, Trump has been calling for a purge, literally, as he casts Democrats as "enemies from within."
Harris has defied critics by going on Fox for an interview. She also did a Univision Town Hall in Arizona and there are rumors she will let Joe Rogan take a crack at her in the closing weeks. These are all media that have favored Trump, although his Univision Town Hall in Miami didn't go over very well. He has ducked interviews with 60 Minutes and MSNBC.
It is hard for me to believe that the majority of Americans in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are leaning toward Trump in these closing weeks. For that matter, I don't think North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are that close either. Nevada maybe. It is a state that barely tilted for Biden in 2020, and split between Governor and US Senator. I think Harris has this election safely in hand with multiple paths to victory on November 5.
However, Republicans are so deluded right now that some even think New York is in play, although it seems the main reason Trump is campaigning in New York is to try to put Republican House members over the top in this state. Yet, here was Trump claiming he is going to "Win New York" at a rally on Long Island. Start spreading the news!
It is now less than three weeks to E-Day. This overlong, over-expensive and over-indulgent campaign is almost over. We have seen many twists and turns but there is just no way a convicted felon will win the White House. Not in my mind anyway. I can't imagine Americans falling for this two-bit charlatan a second time, especially after all the confusion and chaos he has sown over the last 9 years, dating back to his infamous ride down the escalator in 2015. This reality show is finally coming to an end!
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