Perhaps one of the strangest twists in this election is Trump complaining about members of the British Labour Party campaigning for Kamala Harris. Sofia Patel (pictured beside Biden) supposedly urged 100 Labour Party staff (current and former) to hit the campaign trail for Kamala. Not only are they allowed to do so as volunteers, but members of the British Conservative and Reform parties have been campaigning for Trump, most notably Liz Truss and Nigel Farage. This seems to be part of his latest effort to hamper a Harris electoral victory, which appears more and more likely, with extraneous complaints and lawsuits. Why else would Team Trump go to such lengths to claim foreign meddling, other than disguise such "meddling" in his campaign?
Farage is understandable. He's a right-wing kook who has been a big Trump supporter since the early days of Brexit. Liz is a little harder to figure out, but I guess her fall from grace in 2022 left her feeling a little "red" and needing something to launch her back into the spotlight. Hard to believe the Conservative Party held onto power all these years given their dubious leadership, but then Labour had Jeremy Corbyn to contend with.
Labour's prospects rose as soon as they ditched this recalcitrant Socialist, who was dragging the party down. Corbyn clinged to all the vestiges of the Cold War in his ideological battles with the Tories. As such, he made himself an easy target for Populists like Farage and Boris Johnson. Keir Starmer is not so easy to pin down and it has driven Conservatives nuts!
It was Brexit in 2016 that laid the groundwork for Trump's ascendency in American politics. I don't think he would have won the election that year had he not been able to boldly claim there was a red tide of conservativism sweeping the world. Everything was pointing in his favor the closer it came to November.
Conservatives thought they might have a repeat in 2024 when Macron called a snap election in France earlier this year. It appeared for a moment that Marine Le Pen's Far Right National Rally might pull off a shocking win. In the end, clearer heads prevailed and the liberal New Popular Front held the national assembly. Not that populist conservative coalitions didn't score victories in other European countries, notably the Netherlands, but no "plums." Conservatives in America would have to go it alone this time around.
Europe sits on pins and needles awaiting the results of the November 5 election. Ukrainian Pres. Zelensky got almost no response to the "victory plan" he presented. Without the US on board, there really is no chance any Western European country will go out on the limb in regard to NATO ascension. It really is disappointing as without such guarantees Ukraine remains exceedingly vulnerable, especially now that Russia is getting troops as well as ammunition from North Korea, essentially making this into a "world war."
I avoid using caps since North Korea is for all intents and purposes a vassal state of Russia. The country would have never existed had not the US and Soviet Union chosen to "divide" Korea after WWII with the Soviet Union claiming the northern half of the peninsula. The US tried to reclaim the whole peninsula for Korea in 1950 but that didn't go too well.
It's the main reason Zelensky doesn't want a divided Ukraine. He knows it would take decades (Germany) if ever (Korea) before any possible reunification, especially with Russia and China involved. There are even longer divisions like Northern Ireland. But, he may have to settle for a divided Ukraine to appease the West.
Such negotiations are far from the American mind right now. However, it was pleasing to hear Republican Rep. Mike Turner call for "direct military action" if North Korean troops enter Ukraine. Right now they are being used to retake the Kursk oblast in Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year.
The irony of a possible second Trump presidency is that most Republicans side with Ukraine. Yet, we all know Donald has a soft spot for imperial rulers as he would like to be one himself. That way he can ensure his name in perpetuity by establishing a succession of Trumps much like the Kim dynasty in North Korea, dating back to 1945. We might end up with Eric the Red in a battle for the throne once the MAGA chief departs this world.
It has always struck me as incredibly incongruous that Republicans would go along with Trump's imperial ambitions. He's so bald faced about it, yet you hear folks like Gov. Chris Sununu, who represents a moderate Republican state in New Hampshire, dismissing it as empty words.
I don't think we will see a Trump presidency, much less imperial rule, as he is doing his level best to undermine his own campaign with his increasingly foul and discomfiting language and behavior. More and more Republicans are endorsing Kamala Harris each day. Meanwhile, Trump gives former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard a big hug for going all in on MAGA. One of his few converts.
Yet, the polls still show the race a dead heat in all the battleground states, thanks to a flurry of GOP-leaning polls that have brought the averages down to virtually zero. The latest a Forbes poll that gives Trump a 2-point national lead. One if you include Cornell West and Jill Stein, but why bother.
Even Nate Silver has a "gut feeling" Trump will win, dismissing all his algorithms. He's been all over the place since predicting Obama's re-election in 2012. He went 50 for 50 in predicting all the states, much to the chagrin of Karl Rove who refused to accept Fox calling Ohio for Obama on election night. Nate was hailed as the latest Nostradamus, but missed badly in 2016, didn't do so well in 2020 and missed again in 2022 in predicting a Congressional red wave on election eve. So, take that gut for what it's worth.
For his part, Allan Lichtman is sticking with his prediction that Harris will win. At one point, Nate challenged Allan on his keys, claiming that Trump held more keys, but Allan simply said, "you don't know how to read them."
I think a lot of people don't know how to read what is going on, including myself. We just make assumptions, using whatever "keys" bolster our arguments. Just the same, I think Kamala will win because Democrats are doing much better in key statewide elections than are Republicans. Why would voters split their ballots?
My prediction is that Kamala will win at least 6 of the 7 battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. I feel pretty good about Georgia too but with no Democratic statewide election for governor or senator she is on her own in this state. All she really needs to win are the three Midwest states. There might even be an outside chance for an upset in Texas where Colin Allred has pulled virtually even with Ted Cruz. Kamala Harris has even planned a campaign stop in Houston to boost Allred. Wouldn't that be a hoot!
Lest I "weave" too much, let me return to the original premise of this post - "foreign meddling." We hear a lot of it is going on, mostly favoring Donald Trump. Georgia election officials said they recently fended off what they believed to be a foreign cyberattack. There's long been a question as to how secure electronic voting booths are, with Elon Musk telling audiences how easy they are to hack.
More troublesome are all the links between Trump's wealthy supporters and foreign countries. Elon has a pretty cozy relationship with Vlad the Impaler and Chairman Pooh. As cozy as one can have anyway. Miriam Adelson is so Zionist, she makes most Jews cringe. Richard Grenell was stirring up all sorts of trouble in Europe while serving as Trump's Ambassador to Germany, and has strong ties with Viktor Orban in Hungary. Orban himself remains the darling of the conservative Alt-Right, especially with Hungary currently lording over the EU.
But, let's complain about Labour staff members campaigning for Kamala Harris on their own dime. It serves as a useful distraction.
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