Sudiev, China

There was some worry whether China would let the Lithuanian Winter Olympic Team into the country, given the ongoing diplomatic spat over recognizing the Taiwan representative office in its own name.  China has been exerting a lot of pressure on Lithuania to take back this unwarranted action.  However, Lithuania has a long history of standing up to oversized bullies, so no surprise that the House Speaker, Viktorija Čmilytė, has no intention of complying with Beijing's order.

Unfortunately, this meant my wife was not going to get a refund on the leather carry-on bag she ordered, mistakenly thinking it was from Turkey, and not China.  It was pretty ugly and not at all like that shown in the picture, but China has blocked packages from Lithuania, so it just would have ended up in a customs warehouse.  She oiled it and gave it to her brother.

The business community is notably upset, petitioning the President to step in and end this fiasco.  Like many countries, Lithuania had established a strong flow of goods with China, particularly in the building construction sector, but these tend to be pretty one-side deals, and it seems Taiwan is more than happy to fill the gap.  When China refused to honor a deal to import Lithuanian spirits, Taiwan bought the order.  So, it seems we can do just fine without China, especially given the whopping $800 million trade deficit we currently run with the country, importing far more than we are exporting. 

For the Lithuanian government, the decision was relatively simple, as it more easily identifies with Taiwan, given our own history with Russia.  Lithuania has also been very critical of China's occupation of Tibet.  The Dali Lama has been a frequent visitor, and a square was dedicated to Tibet on the Vilna River.  China has voiced its grievances over this matter long before the issue of Taiwan came up, but our previous President Grybauskaitė flatly rejected China's demand that she no longer host the Dali Lama.

This diplomatic battle is the culmination of previous spats like the one in the Cathedral Square when literally a handful of Lithuanian protesters chose to stand up for Hong Kong, during its clash with China two years ago.  They were greeted by angry representatives of the Chinese embassy dressed in street clothes.  This was a significant breach of protocol, as the protesters didn't represent the country's position, but were simply exercising their right to free speech.  They had even filed for a city permit to protest that day.  But, China can't even accept these small acts of defiance, especially when picked up by international news wires.

Despite the pressure from the business community and President Nausėda, it doesn't seem that the current parliament has any intention of retracting its recognition of Taiwan.  If anything, the current government plans to make this relationship stronger.  There is apparently a Lithuanian Fever falling over Taiwan, which would more than make up for the lost revenue from China.

Gabrielius Landsbergis was on Hardtalk the other night, holding his own against Stephen Sackur, not just on China, but Lithuania's support of Ukraine, its request to have a permanent American military base in Lithuania, and of course the inevitable question about Lithuanian collaboration in the Holocaust.  Sackur seemed to think Lithuania threatened to bring punitive actions on the EU from China if it didn't just follow normal protocol and call Taiwan Taipei. What's so hard about that, Stephen asked?  Landsbergis countered that it is much more complicated, and that the EU is backing Lithuania and plans a push back of its own.  We can't allow ourselves to be bullied by China.

China probably figured the EU would force Lithuania to comply with its diplomatic dictate for the better good of the economic union.  China has long used such strong arm tactics in Africa and Latin America, although it has faced some resistance there as well.  But, the EU has become wary of China and seems to be viewing the current diplomatic confrontation as an opportunity to re-evaluate its relationship with China.  So too the US, which combined with the EU could exert a tremendous amount of economic pressure on China.  

There isn't much love for China, given that so few European and American countries chose to send a diplomatic delegation to the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics.  In itself, this diplomatic boycott is a rebuke to President Xi's enormous ego. This may finally be a turning point in the way we view China.

It feels kind of nice being back in the spotlight.  After all, Lithuania was the "mouse that roared" back in 1990, setting off a domino effect among Soviet states that eventually led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.  Not that we expect the same thing to happen to the so-called People's Republic of China, but there is hope that we can ween ourselves from the inordinate supply of Chinese goods in our market, which has virtually killed the local linen industry as well as other small industries in Lithuania.  It is impossible to compete with these ridiculously low prices.  Where else can you buy a genuine leather carry-on bag for 40 euros, no matter how badly misshapen?  Normally, you can't even buy a wallet for that price.

The building industry has gone with a lot of cheap Chinese building materials. There have been some major concerns in the quality of these goods, but the construction companies claim it is the only way they can keep their costs competitive.  One example was the repaving of Gediminas Prospect with Chinese paving stones, only to find that they cracked easily under the weight of traffic and haven't held up well at all over the years.  Homebuyers certainly don't see the savings, as flats are currently selling for a whopping 3000 - 5000 euros per square meter in the Old Town, driven by rampant speculation since the beginning of 2021. 

We wanted to buy a little "retirement" flat but were looking at prices in the 200 to 300,000 euro range in the parts of town we were most interested in.  Well beyond our means.  After a long search, we finally found a flat near the opera house for 150,000 euros, a little less than 3000 euros per square meter, which looks like it will suit us well.  

Anyway, I wish our Olympic team well in Beijing although I don't intend to watch the Games.  It irks me that the IOC would honor China with the Games, given its awful track record when it comes to human rights abuses both at home and abroad.  It's hardly in the spirit of the Games, despite the cynical use of an Uyghur torchbearer.  Even worse, China has entered into an economic and diplomatic alliance with Russia that threatens to promote even greater international instability given these countries' incursions into neighboring states.  Yet another sore point.

So, goodbye China, and thanks for nothing.