To borrow a title from John Steinbeck, it appears we are headed for a cold winter, especially here in Europe. Gas shortages abound, people are starting to panic, and for a brief moment it appeared Count Vlad was starting to gloat that he would freeze all of Europe into submission by cutting off gas supplies.
Then a funny thing happened. Ukrainian forces routed Russian forces in the Kharkiv oblast, taking back 3000 square kilometers of territory, roughly the size of Luxembourg, which left Count Vlad stewing in his own juice. He had to explain this setback to his Russian audience, so he simply said his forces were being redeployed to other key areas, much like when his vaunted 60-kilometer long caravan failed to take Kjiv back in March.
While the gains may seem small in comparison to what Russia has taken in Ukraine, it is a significant blow to Putin's forces. They were retreating so rapidly that they left much of their munitions behind. You don't do that unless you fear being routed, and Putin can't afford to lose anymore of his "elite" fighting force. He's already depending way too much on conscripts drawn from villages, and is now forced to buy rockets from Rocket Man to make up for the shortage in munitions along the front line.
Worst of all for Putin, these recent victories reconfirm the EU's faith in Ukraine. The war had been creeping along all through summer with little in the way of territorial gains either way. Ukraine said they were buying time until they got more munitions. Putin appeared satisfied with his new possessions, thinking he had the upper hand when it came to negotiations. He was literally acting like a king atop an enormous grain silo when he negotiated with the West to let ships deliver badly needed grains through the Black Sea, which he had effectively blockaded for months. Now, he appears to be slipping down into his silo, drowning in this grain.
Of course, the war is not over by a long shot, but these kinds of setbacks undermine his authority back home. You have to think there is a lot of grumbling going on in the Kremlin right now, as Russia also prepares itself for a long winter. It may have more than enough fuel to carry it through December, but food shortages are already being felt.
Ukraine has had to endure its share of pain and suffering, and will continue to do so. Russians aren't used to this. At least not Muscovites. The rural areas have long been underdeveloped with many people living on a shoestring. Seeing that Ukrainians had more than they had resulted in a lot of anger and bitterness. To this point, much of this discontent has been directed at Ukraine. It won't be long, however, before it is directed at Moscow.
This has been one of the great ironies of this war. Despite Russia's vast oil, gas and timber reserves, the average Russian standard of living is far lower than that of his fellow Ukrainian. That of his fellow Belarusian for that matter. Russia's standard of living per capita is one of the lowest in the developed world. It's a quality of life that has been slipping for decades. This despite Putin's promises that he would bring Russia on par with European countries during his long tenure.
He was more interested in hosting Olympic games and World Football Cups than he was in improving the standard of living in his own country. He used the 2014 Sochi Olympics to re-establish Russia's dominance in the winter games, only for a massive doping scandal to be uncovered that resulted in Russia being banned as a country from all Olympic sports events. They've had to compete under the banner of the Russian Olympic Committee ever since with their medals counted unofficially. That's a pretty bitter pill for a man who likes to think of himself as a world class judoka and loves to engage in "friendly games" of hockey.
Still, Putin manages to hang onto his throne, inspiring fear among his subordinates. When the chairman of Lukoil mysteriously jumps through a hospital window, everyone else fears they too might find themselves leaping from tall buildings unexpectedly. This is vintage Stalinism. No one is safe in Putin's Russia, especially those who speak out as Ravil Maganov had done in questioning the war in Ukraine.
You also have to wonder what tactics Putin will use to try to hold Ukraine and the West at bay as he suffers more defeats on the battlefront in the days and weeks ahead. Will Putin honor an agreement to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant? Or will he continue to hold the West hostage by maintaining his forces at the plant? The current fear is that a meltdown on a much bigger scale than Chernobyl might occur. Will he once again cut off grain supplies? Worst of all, will he launch one of the tactical nuclear warheads he has long threatened to do? Once backed into a corner, a man like him is capable of anything.
Of course there are those, like Gerhard Schroder, who still argue we wouldn't be at this juncture had the US and NATO been more sympathetic to Russia's territorial concerns. Nope, we wouldn't be here had Germany not coddled Putin for so many years, building pipelines and ignoring the massive human rights violations in the country throughout his long tenure. In all likelihood, Putin wouldn't have gotten past one term of office had not the West done everything its power to bolster his presidency. The fear was that a far worse populist might rise to power in Russia. Putin was seen as a pragmatic man. One the West could work with.
Unfortunately, we had to learn the hard way that this was never the case. From the moment Putin set foot in the Kremlin he did everything he could to consolidate power, while mollifying the West with promises he was doing so to avert extreme populists like that Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who was constantly talking about re-establishing the old Soviet boundaries. Turns out that was Putin's game plan all along, turning to ultranationalists like Alexandr Dugin.
Yes, it will be a cold winter in Europe, but it warms my heart to know that Ukraine is regaining its territory. Turning down my thermostat is the least I can do to help the cause. If Europe sticks together through winter, it will be Putin's Winter of Discontent.
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