Russia so intently clearing Kherson of inhabitants is a very ominous sign. It lends credence to the theory that Putin wants to render the city and its immediate surrounding uninhabitable so that he can create a buffer zone between Ukraine and Crimea.
There's been a lot of talk of a dirty bomb or blowing up the Kakhova dam in recent weeks. In both cases, Russia has been making unwarranted claims that Ukraine is plotting such actions, but it would be Moscow not Kjiv that would gain from such a devastating plot. Nevertheless, Russian defense minister Shoigu has gone out of his way to warn the world of these actions, claiming it is part of a powerful anti-Russian campaign carried out by Ukraine.
The narrative is constantly shifting in Moscow as it continues to lose face in this war. The recent attempt to block the grain ships blew up in Putin's face when he was called on his bluff. Erdogan "negotiated" a deal that reopened the corridor within days. No one quite understands the terms of the deal as on the surface Russia appears to get nothing. Yet the next day Turkey once again voiced its objections to the ascension of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
The Turkish president has emerged as the only man able to communicate with Putin during this war. This is apparently due to Turkey serving as a back door to Western goods that Russians crave, essentially bypassing Western sanctions. It is difficult for the EU and US to object as Turkey has also been supplying Ukraine with Bayraktar drones that have proved highly effective in this war, and Turkey controls the straits through which the grain ships reach the rest of the world.
Russia also couldn't very well block the grain it is using as a goodwill gesture to African countries in an effort to shore up its image in the developing world. It figures it can use this voting bloc in the UN, although to this point it hasn't done much good. Mostly, Russia helps prop up failed dictatorships in African countries much like it did in Syria. It exports weapons and mercenaries to these countries in exchange for access to its precious mineral reserves.
Russia along with China would very much like to corner the market on lithium. An effort that extends to South America as well. They take advantage of governments who are on difficult terms with the US, providing badly needed infusions of money in their cash-strapped economies. Granted, the US and its European allies have not done enough to improve relations with the developing world. Decades of enmity toward the West have allowed these autocratic leaders to entrench themselves in these countries as they battle what they view as Western neo-colonialism. It's basically the Cold War all over again.
Most of these countries really don't care what goes on in Ukraine as long as they continue to get their grain and other much needed supplies from Russia and China. Much of that grain is from Ukraine but Russia has stamped it as their own in an effort to win African support. You can't really blame these countries for that but it is ironic that they have traded one form of neo-colonialism for another, leaving millions of persons to needlessly suffer in their countries.
You have to admire this multi-layer attempt to counteract what Moscow perceives as a concerted anti-Russian campaign by the West. I suppose Putin figures if you create enough confusion few persons will be able to figure out what actually is going on. This will ultimately allow him to reshape the narrative, but I have to think the "satanism" angle is a bit much.
It has been lurking in the Russian mind for several years now. The Patriarch of Moscow became incensed when Kjiv re-established its patriarchy in 2018, claiming most of the Orthodox churches in Ukraine as its own. This was seen as a severe violation of trust by Father Kirill and he has been pushing Putin to reclaim these churches ever since. The language has grown more heated with Kjiv now being viewed as a den of Satanists. Only by dabbling in the occult could Ukraine defend itself the way it has. Moscow now views the war as a crusade.
Leaving the antisemitism aside given that many in the Ukrainian government are Jewish, you have to wonder why Putin would opt for this approach? He was largely viewed as a pragmatic man in the West, one who could be negotiated with. Throughout this war Western leaders like Scholtz and Macron have repeatedly tried to appeal to his reasonable side but this new language coming out of Moscow essentially shuts the door on any further negotiations except through Erdogan, who doesn't seem to mind these rants.
However, it does raise the alarm as to what Putin will do next. This is why the current evacuation efforts in Kherson are so troubling. This is a man who will never admit defeat, so he very well could render large swathes of Ukraine uninhabitable so that no one can have the land.
Comments
Post a Comment