No more Yaltas!

George Bush with Lithuanian Pres. Adamkus in Vilnius, 2002

The reaction to Trump has become decidedly more fierce in recent days with German Chancellor Merz lashing out at the new American National Security Strategy and publicly stating that Pax Americana is over. Europe can no longer rely on the US for support.  Far from it, the new security strategy is explicitly aimed at undermining current European governments by actively supporting alternative nationalist parties throughout Europe. Over 70 years of a mutually beneficial relationship thrown out the window just like that.

It doesn't stop there.  The Trump administration on its own has worked out deals with Belarus to free alleged political prisoners in exchange for easing sanctions. John Coale, another mysterious special envoy, was in Minsk this past week formalizing the latest deal with a friendly handshake with President-for-life Lukashenko much to the chagrin of Lithuania, which was forced to receive many of these 123 former prisoners, as they had other political prisoners this past summer. While heartwarming to see the reunions in Vilnius, the question becomes how will Belarus get its potash to an international market with the EU not having agreed to ease sanctions?

The tensions stem from Syarhai Tsikhanousky boldly suggesting a semi-autonomous republic in Lithuania as an exiled Belarusian government. He was reunited with his wife Svetlana this past summer in Vilnius.  They pretty much have that with more than 60,000 Belarusians residing in the capital city, often referring to it as "Little Minsk." Everywhere you turn you hear Russian being spoken, which has greatly annoyed Lithuanians. Unlike the Ukrainians, who have settled here during the war, Belarusians have made little effort to learn the language, customs or laws of Lithuania. Worse, it was discovered that a small number were actually moles working for Russian interests, actively stirring unrest through social media. 

Belarusians have been fleeing to Vilnius ever since the 2020 Belarus presidential election, which many considered fraudulently won by Lukashenko. Certainly the numbers were questionable given the massive protests in the streets of Minsk that saw 100s of 1000s of Belarusians defy the government.  Lukashenko claimed he won with 80 percent of the vote. Svetlana Tsikhanousky became the darling of the international press having run in place of her imprisoned husband and now residing in Vilnius. She was granted 10 percent of the vote. The other ten dispersed among official opposition.

It has been hard to sort through all the newly arrived Belarusians and determine how many are political exiles and how many are economic exiles, as the EU placed heavy sanctions on the country in the wake of Lukashenko's crackdown in 2020. Many of the Belarusians residing in Vilnius are well heeled to say the least. For a short while, they were renting out space for a kindergarten in the former convent my wife and I work in. Our tiny Toyota Yaris paled in comparison to the fancy SUVs and EVs we found in the courtyard, one of which was often taking our designated space. They have since established a school and other forms of public infrastructure to accommodate the growing population of "exiles."

It's not just unwanted exiles but weather balloons that have been traveling across the border. Lukashenko dismisses the balloons as smugglers floating contraband cigarettes into Lithuania but they come in droves at night, forces the international airport to postpone flights while the military tracks down the balloons. Yes, there are packages of cigarettes and other illicit products attached to them but it seems nothing more than a way to create havoc during the airport's peak hours.

This on top of all the refugees Belarus has been flooding Lithuanian and Polish borders with since 2021. These refugees were allegedly passing through Belarus but surveillance cameras literally caught the Belarusian military bringing them to the border by vans. It turned out that the government was taking them from refugee camps in Greece and Turkey and bringing them to the border as a form of refugee terrorism, for lack of a better word.  Most of these refugees weren't in on the hybrid war tactic.  They just thought they were being given safe passage only to end up in refugee camps in Lithuania, where they await deportation back to their home countries. Those who legally crossed are being given the opportunity to apply for temporary residence.

I say all this because it is the price neighboring countries pay for Trump's appeasement to Moscow. Trump seems to have a special relationship with Lukashenko, as he called the Belarusian president on his way to Alaska to meet Putin in August. This was the first time a president had ever contacted Lukashenko directly, and since then Lukashenko has been providing a steady drip of political prisoners in exchange for lighter sanctions. Trump seems all too willing to comply as he thinks Lukashenko gives him a window on Moscow. Not that he really needs one as he has direct communication with Moscow through his other special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Neither Coale nor Witkoff have diplomatic experience.  One is a former lawyer and the other a real estate developer.  They approach these negotiations on a purely transactional basis, oblivious to the concerns of the EU and its member states. There seems to be a much deeper reason for this newfound interest in Belarus. It is one of the world's largest producers of potash, a fundamental ingredient in fertilizer.  It's not like you can't get it elsewhere but for years Belarus flooded the market with cheap potash and costs have risen with the sanctions placed on the country. It is part of a larger strategy to divide natural resources around the globe between Russia, China and the US. Europe is now considered secondary, as stated in the NSS.

All these negotiations taking place between the US and Russia and Belarus do not involve the EU. At best Brussels is informed of the activities and expected to comply with the results of these negotiations. Danish intelligence now lists the Trump administration as a "threat" given its blatant use of economic power to "assert its will" along with veiled military threats in the Arctic region.

German Chancellor Merz appears to agree that Europe no longer has a mutually beneficial relationship with the US but rather an increasingly adversarial one that threatens to compromise this long standing alliance dating back to WWII. If it was a matter of putting "America first," I think many Americans would probably accept this, but the unsavory relationships that are forming between the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and China suggest this is about putting Trump and his tight circle of business friends first. Europe will most definitely have to chart its own course and the sooner it can lessen economic and military ties with the US the better as it is clear the Trump administration no longer has Europe's back.

This is a very grave turn of events, which has major consequences for the Eastern European countries that form the front line against Russia and Belarus. For two decades now these NATO countries have relied on the US for military support but as of 2026 Trump plans to significantly reduce this commitment. So much for Bush's promise back in November, 2002, of "No more Munichs. No more Yaltas."