There you go again

Plaza Venezuela y Paseo Colon, Caracas, 1950

Is it oil or development that the US seeks in the Western hemisphere? I remember my mother telling me of her time in Caracas back in the 1950s when she followed my father down to Venezuela. He was a geologist, principally interested in copper. He had spent a great portion of his life in Southern Africa but here he was back in the Americas. I don't recall how long they spent in Venezuela but my mother said she really enjoyed Caracas. It was such a beautiful city. It was run by a conservative government that catered to American interests including the development of oil reserves, but my father had no part in that. 

There were big plans for Caracas. Venezuela was seen as an emerging giant in the Caribbean that would challenge Brazil and Mexico for hegemony in the region. Its GDP per capita was on par with the United States, which was also enjoying a huge economic boom at the time. This new prosperity was thanks to autocratic leader Marcos Perez Jimenez, who had consolidated power in himself as autocrats tend to do. The difference was that he wanted American involvement and so went out of his way to cater to the business elite with Caracas growing by leaps and bounds. All that changed in 1958 when his government was overthrown and a democratic government put in place. The US continued to support Venezuela but was wary of the growing communist influence in the region, particularly in Cuba, where a new communist government had emerged in the wake of the 1959 revolution. 

The Trump administration would dearly love to role back time to before 1958 and rekindle the developmental aims of that era, bringing the Caribbean basin squarely back into Washington's sphere of influence. This "investment group" that plans to visit Venezuela is looking to develop a wide range of interests, not just oil. I would say oil is probably the least of their interests as there is a current glut on the market that doesn't make it very profitable at the moment. What they value most "are massive opportunities in construction, in tourism." This is also what draws them to Cuba and Colombia. 

The interim government appears to be accommodating. Basically, they have a gun pointed at their heads with Trump's armada stationed offshore ready to unleash more Hueys and marines at a moment's notice. What else can Delcy Rodriguez do unless she wants this confrontation to escalate into a war that her country is in no way ready for? They had counted on Russia to have their back but Putin appears content to let Trump have his way in Venezuela.

China not so much as they had been investing heavily in the country with over 600 cooperative agreements, but they too had been pulling away in recent years. In part because Maduro was difficult to deal with and in the past year Trump's increasing interest in the country. I guess they didn't see their investments as easy to defend as they are in other South American countries where the US couldn't so easily blockade as they have done Venezuela. 

Russia had never really been anything other than a military ordnance provider and as it turns out much of that ordnance was low grade and failed to provide much resistance to the assault this past Saturday. My guess is that Russia cleared out some of its old Soviet-era munitions to sell to Venezuela. Other countries should take a closer look at their military hardware they bought from Moscow, as I imagine it is of similar inferior quality.

Even its newer hardware is proving surprisingly ineffective, like its vaunted Kinzhal missiles that Ukraine shoots down easily. Its next gen jets have also failed to meet expectations, with many of them being shot down by drones. The war in Ukraine has essentially become a drone war with Russia now investing heavily in Shaheed drones they initially bought from Iran but are currently producing on a grand scale. Maybe Venezuela should have invested in drone technology?

Anyway, Venezuela now finds itself all alone with little recourse other than to accommodate US interests. This is indeed a very bad precedent, as Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez pointed out. It will be difficult to defend against the United States' imperialist actions if it is constantly going rogue like this. I'm sure the Trump administration will do its best to encourage opposition parties in Spain to take back their country. If you recall, former President Aznar was a big supporter of Bush's war on Iraq back in 2003, and his People's Party is itching to return to power.

This is less about oil and more about reshaping global alliances and firmly establishing the United States as the top dog in this new world order. Trump has pulled the US out of a whole host of international organizations and you figure it won't be long before he pulls the US out of NATO, especially if he wants to claim Greenland as the US's newest possession. You can only pull off such an audacious land grab when the economy is riding high and Americans feeling little pinch. Unfortunately that is not the case for Donald as many Americans continue to struggle a year into his presidency with little sign of relief.

What we are seeing is a classic form of imperial overreach where a country tries to show its might abroad to make up for its shortcomings at home. This is exactly what happened to Russia in Ukraine and now we are seeing it play out in the Western hemisphere. Even if the US were to gain control of Venezuela's oil and other mineral reserves, it would take years if not decades to bring these refined products to market. Trump doesn't have years and certainly not decades to pull off an economic coup like this. 

This seems more a way to appease the billionaire developers who poured so much money into his campaign by letting them have Venezuela to do with what they wish as the US Navy applies pressure offshore. It's as if we have gone back in a time machine to the 1950s and will repeat the same mistakes. As Ronald Reagan once said, there you go again.