Age of Conquest

In Emperor Vladimir's latest dictate, Ukraine risks losing statehood if it does not lay down its arms.  Not that he ever believed in it to begin with.  To hear him talk, Ukraine owes its statehood to Lenin.  The language is unbelievable, which is why many observers think there is no turning back for Putin.  The only way he can save face is by taking over the country and absorbing it into the Soviet Union, I mean Russia.

For Eastern Europeans, this is nothing new.  Putin has long questioned the statehood of the Baltic countries, also believing these states were gifted by Lenin and Stalin, when they created the soviet republics.  He has a little harder time defending this position, as all three countries were independent between the wars, and the United Nations never recognized the Soviet annexation.  Last year, Vilnius removed a bronze statue of Petras Cvirka, citing his involvement in the Soviet regime, part of its ongoing de-Sovietization of the city. 

There are many lingering reminders from that era, which is why Lithuania has never forgotten nor forgiven the Russian government.  For decades, the state has wanted the extradition of three OMON officers from Russia, who were responsible for the cold-blooded murder of seven border guards at the Medininkai crossing in 1991.  Russia still refused to recognize Lithuania's independence, despite having pulled back in January of that year, and regularly harassed the border posts.  The state was only able to bring one of these thugs to justice in a trial in 2011.  

Until now, these fears of renewed annexation were largely regarded as paranoia by the West.  European and American leaders believed Putin was a pragmatic man who could be reasoned with.  Each American president pushed the reset button in relations with Russia.  Even Biden walked away from the Geneva summit last summer believing Putin would abide to "some basic rules of the road," only to discover this winter that the only rules Putin adheres to are the ones he sets himself.

The West has harbored so many illusions of Putin despite all the warnings that date back to his early years in office.  Hard to believe that anyone could forget the way he stormed the Moscow theater to "free" the roughly 800 hostages, using an unspecified gas to subdue the Chechen terrorists, only to kill 131 persons in the process, with many more suffering from the after effects of what was believed to be Sarin gas.  Even worse was the Beslan school siege in 2004, where more than 300 persons were killed when Putin had OMON special units raid the school to end the crisis.  The vast majority of deaths were women and children.  He demonstrated that lives don't matter, only his image matters, and Putin didn't negotiate with terrorists.

Then there was the brutal Chechen war that dragged on for 13 long years, resulting in innumerable deaths and tremendous suffering, only for Putin to install a thuggish regime led by Roman Kadyrov, which has ruled the semi-autonomous republic since 2007.  Kadyrov's dogs are considered responsible for the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, an outspoken critic of Putin's foreign policy and the regime in Chechnya. 

Putin wants to install a similar regime in Ukraine, the Eastern half of it anyway, to be ruled with an iron fist.  Like Chechnya, it would be part of Russia but have its own semi-autonomous rule.  However, Chechnya, is a regional state of roughly 1.4 million persons.  Ukraine has a population of well over 40 million.  It is clearly a model doomed to failure.

However, Emperor Vladimir no longer appears willing to deal with harsh realities.  He prefers the mythical world he has created for himself, like some conquest video game.  If he had been the pragmatic man, as he was  regarded in the West, he would have been content to annex the breakaway republics in the Donbas region.  Instead, he tries to take a massive country lock, stock and barrel, never for one moment thinking Ukraine would mount much of a resistance.  

The Chechen War should have served as a reminder.  The two wars that stretched from 1994 to 2007 resulted in the deaths of more than 10,000 Russian soldiers, not to mention at least 100,000 Chechen lives.  It threatened to bring down his government at one point, but Putin was eventually able to gain the upper hand at a tremendous human toll.

I suppose he thought Ukrainians would meet his soldiers with sunflowers, not that they are in season.  One woman did offer sunflower seeds, telling the young Russian soldier to put them in his pocket so that something good would grow over his grave.

However, Emperor Vladimir seems to be taking the death toll in stride, believing it is far closer to the 500 soldiers his authorities admit to than it is the 9200 soldiers Ukraine claims its army has killed since fighting began 10 days ago.  Putin thinks it will all soon be over and we can return to "normal relationships," bemused that the West would impose all these economic sanctions over what he perceives to be an internal matter.  In his mind, Ukraine brought this war upon itself and will pay a heavy price for it.  The only question is how long it will take.  He firmly believes he has time on his side.