Lithuanian PM Šimonytė warned Europeans early in February that the placement of Russian troops in Belarus was "a 1938 moment," recalling the cusp of Hitler's invasion into Poland in 1939. "Neutrality helps the oppressor and never the victim," she went onto say, but her plea fell on deaf ears. EU leaders and even US President Joe Biden believed they could still reach out to Putin and get him to pull back forces, essentially a "retreat with dignity."
However that was never going to happen, as Putin had been planning this invasion since last summer, the time he first met Biden at the Geneva Summit. Biden came away from that meeting relatively confident that Putin would play by the "rules of the road," never for one moment guessing what the Russian autocrat had in mind.
As I've been telling my American friends, two things tipped Putin over the edge. In 2018, Kyiv re-established its Orthodox patriarchate, no longer considering itself subservient to Moscow, and in 2020 massive protests rocked Belarus over the sham re-election of Lukashenko. What most political pundits don't realize is that Putin firmly believes in a religious autocracy. The Russian Orthodox church is central to this. Not because he is a particularly religious man, but because he recognizes the value of religion in oppressing the people, just as Stalin did when the last of Bolsheviks was placed in memoriam in Red Square.
Stalin re-established the Russian Orthodox religion as the official religion of the state and shaped it into his red right hand. The church is still so grateful for this that it printed a commemorative calendar in his honor in 2014. To read the attached article, the Russian Orthodox church fully believes in prosperity theology, and apparently this calendar sold extremely well.
The church also has massive real estate investments, even in outposts like Vilnius, where the Russian Orthodox church controls an amazing amount of prime real estate beyond its churches. Leases are a major source of revenue, as is real estate speculation. To be fair, the Catholic church has similarly invested heavily in real estate, but for the most part has stayed out of politics, at least directly. Not so the Russian Orthodox church, which has been a very strong component of Putin's Russia.
As such, there should be no rebellious acts against the church and state. We caught a glimpse of this in 2012 when the band Pussy Riot staged an impromptu concert in Moscow's Christ the Savior Cathedral, the result of which were harsh jail sentences for the band's leaders. Most Moscovites were aghast, and felt the jail sentences didn't go far enough, but Nadya Tolokonnikova has recently said, you can't play nice with Putin. You have to hit him where it hurts. She and two of her band mates endured their jail sentences and are unapologetic for their actions. She has been working hard to funnel money to Ukraine through cryptocurrency to support their war effort.
Then came Belarus. No one really expected the outcry to Lukashenko's sham election. After all, this was at least the sixth, maybe even seventh election since he was first elected in 1994. Everyone knew the results were rigged. He has jailed most opposition leaders, but wasn't prepared for the massive outcry led by the wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, of one of the jailed opposition leaders, who ran in her husband's place and many felt won the election. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets all over the country, but the West didn't know how to respond. The EU and the US of course laid down massive sanctions against Lukashenko's regime when his military forces began beating the protesters unmercifully. There was even a moment where it seemed his government might topple, but St. Vladimir was there to rescue the crippled leader, augmenting Belarusian forces with the notorious OMON security force, and eventually restoring order in Belarus.
This was a massive upheaval. Many Belarusians left their home country, settling in Poland, Lithuania, Germany and other countries. They knew what was coming and wanted no part of it. Ms. Tsikhanouskaya became the darling of the West, much to Putin's and Lukashenko's chagrin, easily conversing in English and telling EU and American leaders the type of men they were dealing with. Yet, the West took limited action. EU and American leaders thought they could still reason with Putin, and that Lukashenko didn't matter in the greater scope of things. Tell that to Belarusians who are facing the draconian measures he has imposed on the country.
Yep, we see all the warning signs but continue to ignore them. Even now there is talk Putin will pull back in Ukraine and that some normalcy can return to the country. He is no longer talking about regime change, but then whatever retreat we may see would be minimal. Putin will very much entrench himself in the Donbas region, further undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity, and probably cleave off other parts of the country as well, given that his forces now control most of the Ukrainian coastline along the Sea of Asov and Black Sea. Do we capitulate again, content with a ceasefire?
Most likely, yes, as NATO has no stomach for a war with Russia, even as this charter sees how weak Moscow is. The fear of a nuclear Armageddon is all too palpable given what many perceive to be Putin's fragile state. So, Ukraine would be asked to at least recognize Putin's annexation of Crimea and most likely give up on the Donbas region as well, for the sake of the greater good. Memories of WWII are still too fresh on everyone's minds.
For Eastern Europeans, NATO is just putting off the inevitable. Putin will never go away peacefully. He will lick his wounds and come back another day. Who knows where next? However, NATO still believes it can contain Putin indefinitely. Even after he's gone some new tyrant will take his place, as an autocracy is now so firmly established in Russia that it is doubtful anyone other than a Kremlin hardliner would assume office after his death. We may get some kind of "thaw" as was the case with Khrushchev after the death of Stalin, but Russia would remain a menacing giant. After all, it was Khrushchev who vowed to "bury" the West.
The other problem is that all of Putin's apologists will re-emerge, much like the Brexiteers did after Britons slowly accepted the outcome of that resolution. Political figures like Nigel Farage and Marie Le Pen, as well as low-grade propagandists like Oliver Stone and Tucker Carlson, all hailing the savvy of the Prince of Moscow, able to get what he wants despite being unable to support his own people, much less those he wants to annex.
Even if Russia had been able to absorb Ukraine, what would it have done then? Most of its citizens live below the poverty line, which is much lower than it is in the EU or US. Putin's Russia has a lower standard of living than that of Ukraine. Little wonder Ukrainians want to move toward the West. In fact, most Russians want to as well, which is why they are not taking all these corporate pullouts very well. Finland is inundated with Russians fleeing the country in fear of the economic collapse currently taking place. They can't fly out, as Aeroflot has been banned throughout Europe, so they go by car, bus and train.
A nascent opposition movement is building under a new blue and white flag, created by yet another brave woman. The flag has popped up at protests not just in Russia, but in Georgia, Germany and Cyprus as well, calling for the end of war and a new state no longer subject to the devastating rule of Putin. We must not forget that many, many Russians are against Putin and his autocratic regime.
I understand NATO's reluctance to intercede on the behalf of Ukraine, but this is indeed our Warsaw moment. If we allow it to pass, Putin will only strengthen his position and continue to wreak havoc on Eastern Europe. This is why Eastern European leaders feel the time has come to take a stand. There should be no more capitulation, no more appeasement, "no more Yaltas." We either rid ourselves of this menace now, or forever be entangled in his machinations. Best to strike him at his weakest moment.
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