It seems like the Romanian president took a separate train to Kjiv, as you only see these three guys in all the pictures. However, Klaus Iohannis got off at the same train station at the same time. All four went on a tour of Irpin, one of the towns outside the capital that suffered the most damage during the Siege of Kjiv. Olaf Scholz appeared visibly shaken by what he saw. The others not so much. Although they all expressed their steadfast support for Ukraine.
As a parting gift, Russia cut off roughly 50 percent of its gas supply to Germany and Italy due to repairs. You would think there would come a breaking point, but Scholz and Macron continue to harbor illusions of a negotiated settlement with Russia along the lines of the Minsk agreements that would restore full oil and gas supplies throughout the EU. But, we in the East know that "repairs" is just a code word for Russia. It could take months or even years before the Kremlin renews this supply, and only then on its terms.
Russia isn't content with just controlling world gas and oil supplies, it also wants to control the flow of wheat and sunflower oil, a large part of which come from Ukraine. You knew Vlad would pull out all the stops, hoping to break apart the united front European countries have presented to date. We are now finding out how vital Ukraine's economy is to the well being of the world, especially when it comes to grains. I've seen bread prices soar here in Vilnius by 20 percent.
Yet, Ukraine is still being treated like a second cousin twice removed. European yes, but too long under the Soviet and Russian sway to hope to be part of the EU anytime soon. Macron estimates it will take 20 years for Ukraine to be ready for full membership, and is suggesting some kind of associate membership until the Eastern European country meets all the EU criteria. Kind of like the way the EU has been stringing along Turkey all these years. For a country that is literally fighting for its right to exist as a democratic nation this is a very bitter pill to swallow. Little wonder President Zelensky had a look of disgust when receiving a hug from Macron in Kyiv.
It took months to get these three Western European leaders to come to Kyiv, long after most other European leaders had visited Ukraine. Some on numerous occasions. Boris even ducked his head in Kjiv a second time to offer Zelensky the assurances he sought from France, Italy and Germany.
Ukraine is literally at a make or break point as far as holding onto its last vestiges of the Donbas region. After which Russia will secure itself in this region, making it even harder to uproot its presence. Unfortunately, Ukrainian militias don't have the firepower to regain lost territory. They are still waiting on the mid-range missiles the US promised last month, which would allow its forces to cut deeper into the Russian front and to the supply line itself. The US has apparently held back as it seeks assurances from Ukraine that it won't fire deep into Russia itself. As Douglas MacArthur might say, this is no way to fight a war. You can't leave Ukraine on the defensive and hope that it will somehow regain lost territory. This is exactly how we lost Korea. Half of it anyway.
No one seems to have the stomach for war, not even Russia. It is once again making overtures toward "peace," as it now finds itself in an advantageous situation. With much of Donbas and the Kherson oblast under its control, Putin figures he can negotiate through strength. Everyone has seen the damage and no wants anymore of it. He would like to see this special military operation come to an end because the longer this war drags on the harder it will be for him to control the narrative in Russia. The only problem is that he imagines any settlement on his terms.
While the US and UK have said that any settlement should be on Ukraine's terms, France and Germany are more flexible. After all, it is not their land. So what if Ukraine has to give up a little piece of itself. It is for the greater good of Europe. Yet, these countries are only willing to meet Ukraine halfway when it comes to EU membership. Maybe not even that far.
This not only makes Zelensky recoil, but other Eastern European leaders as well. They wonder if the same sort of compromising spirit applies to their countries as well. Would the EU be willing to give up the Baltics for the greater good of Europe? After all, we are hearing much the same language from Moscow when it comes to Lithuanian independence, as we heard in regard to Ukrainian independence. Russian lawmakers clearly see these former Soviet republics as an extension of itself and have put forward resolutions in the Duma calling for the restoration of these former territories.
Moldova is actively seeking assurances from the US and NATO that it will get military support if Russia continues advances in Ukraine toward its borders. After all, Moldova is a former Soviet republic, one created when it was split from Romania after WWII.
No one expects Macron, Scholz and Draghi to fully understand the situation. But, we would like them to be more empathetic. Taken together, Eastern Europe countries are actually larger than Russia in terms of population. The standard of living is higher across the board, even in war torn Ukraine, as we have seen with all the looting that has taken place. This means Eastern Europe is a much greater economic market than Russia when it comes to the free flow of goods and services. Ukraine, with a population of roughly 45 million, represents a sizable chunk of this market, larger than Poland.
Maybe if we present the situation in these terms to Western European leaders they might see the advantage at drawing the line in Ukraine not at the Dnipro river, but at the Sea of Azov and Black Sea. There is no reason for Russia to be anywhere in Ukraine, and as far as Russian-speaking Ukrainians are concerned, they have suffered the most in this war, as it is their regions that are constantly under fire. Little sympathy Russia has shown toward what it believes to be its own people, let alone Ukrainians as a whole.
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