Summer Lightning

Summer is usually brief in Lithuania, but when it comes it does so in a massive heatwave.  The only reprieve is the occasional thunderstorm.  I've been working on a boyhood story set in Florida in the summer of 1974 and this heatwave helps inspire memories.  The thunderheads would roll in off the Gulf of Mexico around 4 in the afternoon, usually leaving water spouts in their wake, as the heavy black clouds hit land with sheets of rain and violent rolls of thunder.  It was pretty impressive to see these storms.  You had to get quickly back inside as there was lightning all around.  Afterward, it was even hotter than it was before. Here, there is somewhat of a cooling effect.

We were by ourselves Midsummer Eve and so our neighbor invited us over to join in the fire he had lit in his grill.  He offered beer but I was having a glass of Irish whisky that was going down smoothly.  Daina had a gin and tonic, her favorite summer drink.  All was pleasant.  Our little Corgi chasing after the cat until he tired out and curled by my feet on the grass.  We were having a hard time filling the space with conversation.  It's not like we know each other very well, so we are still feeling each other out.  

Vasily is a Russian from Ukraine.  His wife is Lithuanian.  I had previously gotten the impression that he was pro-Putin but thought that the war might have shaken his views.  Unfortunately it hadn't and after a while he felt compelled to talk about the war in Ukraine, referring to it as a proxy war between Russia and the US.  Just unfortunate that Ukrainians were caught in the middle of it.  Neither my wife nor I felt like going there and stayed quiet.  His wife tried to deflect her husband with other subjects but to no avail.  It seemed Vasily was determined to present his view on the subject, forcing us to engage with him.

I think what triggered him was Daina mentioning how dirty the Ukrainians left our flat.  Maryna and her two boys moved out last week, having secured visas to join her sister in Chicago.  Olena had earlier taken her two girls with her to Spain where she hoped to find better job opportunities.  Vasily said he knew we wouldn't be rewarded for our generosity, but Daina told him that she was disappointed but not unhappy with our decision to let them have the flat for three months.

Mostly, Vasily wanted an American to engage with, as he seemed to think that the US was culprit here, not Russia.  He brought up Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan, as if that excused Russia's actions.  It wasn't worth getting too deep in this because there was no endgame to the conversation, and Daina always hates it when I get into political arguments.  I said two wrongs don't make a right and left it at that.

Daina feels Vasily is part of a "fifth column" and warns me not to engage with him.  The next day I saw him sitting outside.  It almost seemed like he was waiting for me to continue this conversation but I had no interest in doing so and went about watering the flowers and plants, as the midsummer heat was starting to take a toll on them.  The tips of the rhododendron leaves were already burnt.  The cat was following me around, and I would reach down to pet her from time to time.  I nodded to Vasily but that was it.  He can engage with Klavs if he wants.  Our other neighbor speaks Russian so Vasily won't have to stumble around for Lithuanian words.  Later I heard the two of them talking over the fence.  

It always gets me how persons living in other countries can still swear blind allegiance to their home countries, regardless of what is going on.  I never supported the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I was deeply embarrassed by George Bush as President.  The only thing positive I could say about him was that he seemed to have a soft spot for Eastern Europe, and pushed to have ten of the countries admitted into NATO.  I suppose for a guy like Vasily this precipitated all the hostilities between Russia and Eastern Europe, but these countries wanted to break from Russia.  They had no desire to remain under its sphere of influence.  Whether NATO is any better is subject to debate, but it wasn't like these countries were forced to join NATO, as they had been the Warsaw Pact.

I could have argued all this with Vasily but language makes it difficult.  He doesn't speak English.  I don't speak Russian. Both our Lithuanian is rather threadbare.  But what is the point?  It is not like I would convince him or he me of our respective folly of thinking.  It's best to talk about innocuous things like how to combat grubs and other pests wreaking havoc on our flower beds.  Alas, Vasily wants to engage.  It is his Russian soul.

This is the problem many of us face in Vilnius.  We all have Russian friends.  Some are aghast at what is going on in Ukraine.  Others seem to quietly approve.  I try not to pass judgement, as we all have different experiences.  Nevertheless, it is a bit upsetting when a neighbor blithely dismisses what is going on in Ukraine as a proxy war, especially when it can spill over into other Eastern European countries at a moment's notice.  NATO recently put its military on high alert and promised to mobilize 300,000 soldiers across the continent.  It appears NATO military intelligence has picked up more warning signs that Russia is looking to expand the war.

Russia has gained all it wanted from Ukraine short of overturning the government.  Its military forces now have a firm hold of the Donbas region, have absorbed Kherson.  It seems Putin would like Kharkiv too but is willing to wait until his forces solidify their new base of operations in the Luhansk and Donetsk "republics." President Zelenskyy vows to reclaim these oblasts, but without more military aid from the West that isn't likely.  So, Russia is now looking elsewhere to pick a fight.

There has been a lot of talk about the Suwalki Gap in the news recently.  The news media loves a new theater of operation.  It allows them to explore new territory, send out journalists to interview locals.  We watched a pretty pathetic attempt at gauging the pulse of the region on Sky News the other night.  The reporter focused on Lithuania imposing EU sanctions on the rail connection between Moscow and Kaliningrad that runs through Vilnius.  Like most journalists, he viewed this as a Lithuanian imposition, when in fact it was part of the EU sanctions pact.  Lithuania is simply following through with it.  The Kremlin would love nothing more than to reconnect with Kaliningrad through Belarus, as it doesn't have any other border with Lithuania.  This is why the Suwalki Gap keeps coming up in the news.

Personally, I don't know why we still allow Russia any transit through the country.  This rail link has long been a sore point, but then Lithuania had fairly extensive trade ties with Kaliningrad before the war, so I suppose it was mutually beneficial.  Now trade is almost nil.  Not like it will cause any real hardship on Kaliningrad, as Russia can always supply its detached enclave by sea, but it gives the Kremlin a casus belli to exert pressure on Lithuania.

I try not to get too worked up about any of this as there really isn't anything I could do.  If Russia were to try to claim the Suwalki Gap, we would essentially be sealed off from the rest of Europe.  The only escape at that point would be to the North as the Gap would be impassable.  Russia does have direct borders with Latvia and Estonia so these countries wouldn't be safe either.  As we have seen in Ukraine, Russia could easily overrun these three small Baltic states, assuming it has the munitions to do so.  There isn't much of a NATO presence here, so it would be immediately put on the defensive.  The best thing to do would be stay put in our basements, as we were told at a seminar last week on emergency preparedness.

I wonder if Vasily would be fine with this as he is the war in Ukraine? He has taken roots here just like I have with a Lithuanian wife and children.  Would he turn his back on them?  I certainly wouldn't.  My first objective would be to protect my family.  This is when the shit gets real, as they say.  You can no longer hide behind your opinions.  Now you actually have to defend them.  I hope it doesn't come to that, but we have to prepare ourselves for the possibility.

This heat is insufferable.  Not much ventilation up in the attic.  I'm waiting for those storm clouds to roll in as the weatherman promised.  Otherwise, I will have to go out and water the flowers and plants once again.  I forget how much this heat takes out of you.  It seemed like I could run around in this heat all day as a kid, but I'm not 12 years old anymore.  See what I can come up with in my memories.