Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!

We heard the crowd as it moved along Birutė St. toward Nemtsov Square in Žverynas.  We call the park the Duck Pond, a place were parents take their kids and dog-lovers walk their dogs.  On the other side of the pond is the Russian embassy, an imposing building with its double-eagle crest on the broad gable.  One of the reasons for naming the park after Boris Nemtsov is to constantly remind the Russian officials of his murder on the streets of Moscow in 2015.  Soon, the park was swelling with persons waving flags and banners not just of Lithuania and Ukraine, but also Georgia, Belarus and Moldava, countries that have also seen the tyranny of Russia in recent years.  "Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!" an estimated 10,000 persons shouted out to Russian officials.  "Glory to Ukraine!  Glory to heroes!"

There was a makeshift podium and large screen set up that allowed various speakers and musicians to offer their support of Ukraine.  National anthems were sung and popular Lithuanian musicians sang songs both in Lithuanian and Ukrainian.  Unfortunately, the sound wasn't very good, so it was hard to hear the words.  People once again shouted "Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!" waving their cellphones and candles in the air, giving so much light to the gathering.  A bonfire was also lit next to the pond, backlighting a large flag of Ukraine.

It was cold but not bitter.  I held Daina close to me.  We felt it was important to be here, not just because the event was in our own backyard, so to speak, but because we both feel utterly crestfallen by the events taking place in Ukraine.  We had visited Lviv several years ago, a beautiful city near the Polish border that dates back to the time of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.  We stayed in the Hotel St. George, a patron saint to so many cultures, and one that seems so apropos today.  Ukraine is St. George battling the Russian dragon as it tries to encircle and cut off the country from Europe.

Of course, this is not Russia's war, but rather Putin's war.  Unlike the petty little tyrant in Moscow, we draw distinctions between his failed government and the great people of Russia.  It was heartwarming to see so many Russians defy bans and gather in protest to the war throughout the country.  Putin must realize he is alone in this war.  He has no support, not even among his own people.  Instead, he relies on a compliant cabinet, Duma and army willing to obey his orders.  How he plans to impose his order on Ukraine remains to be seen, as the Ukrainian army certainly won't support whatever puppet regime he tries to install in Kyiv.

Mostly, we feel incredibly sad for the people of Ukraine and its leadership, which finds itself all alone.  Of course, many residents will flee, and like Poland and other Eastern European countries, Lithuania has already made plans to house refugees.  The government is asking residents to register extra flats and rooms to help harbor these dislocated people.  

Of course, we worry too that Putin may not be done with Ukraine.  His idea of a "Greater Russia" includes the Baltics as well.  How else to reconnect his wayward little colony in Kaliningrad to Mother Russia?  But, for now we feel safe in knowing that NATO and the EU finally realize that Putin is not a man who can be reasoned with.  Are we on the brink of WWIII?  It would certainly seem so, as the US sent an 800 additional troops this week, and NATO plans to send more troops in the coming weeks.  We all hold our collective breath and hope that Putin at least recognizes NATO boundaries.

To hear him talk, this is why he launched his invasion into Ukraine.  For years he has complained about NATO joint exercises in the Baltic states and Poland, which he considered a threat to his national security.  It didn't matter that he held similar joint exercises in Belarus, or that he regularly encroaches on Baltic airspace with his fighter jets.  Western leaders thought this was just a game of tit for tat, similar to the ones during the Cold War, but Putin was gauging NATO reaction, as he is now with his invasion.  He knows he can't win a war outright with NATO, but he figures if he can break NATO unity, then he can reclaim the historic "Pale of Russia," once again creating a buffer zone between Russia and the West.

It doesn't matter that Russia is already so vast that he is unable to manage it.  He can't even properly manage its natural resources, let alone its people.  As I've said many times, the standard of living in Russia lags far behind its Eastern European neighbors, even Ukraine and Belarus.  This is why you increasingly see protests in Russia, which Putin stamps down, arresting its organizers and convicting them of phony charges so that they spend 5 to 10 years in jail.  Yet, there are many who still see Putin as trying to create a democracy in Russia, as cynical as that sounds.

Putin surrounds himself with oligarchs, who Paul Krugman believes launder billions of dollars for Putin in offshore accounts.  Krugman believes that this fabulous wealth may amount to as much as 85 percent of Russian GDP.  If there is a way to cut off access to these finances, then Putin finds himself literally stranded, unable to fund his invasion and subsequent takeover of Ukraine.  Already, the EU, Britain and the US have moved to freeze those assets that they have access to, but it will require a global effort, as this money is spread far and wide.

Most importantly, Europe has to cut off its oil and natural gas supply from Russia.  Sure, it will be hard at first.  As much as 40 percent of European natural gas comes from Russia, but winter is almost over and there are other sources for liquified natural gas.  The US has already offered to help make up the shortfall.  Of course, Europe has to be circumspect of American motives, as it hears a former president praising Putin, and who knows who will be in the Oval Office in 2025.  That is why it is imperative to make the switch to solar, wind and geothermal energy in the next five years, so Europe will no longer need any oil or natural gas.

Russia will still have its patrons, notably China, but Beijing only sees Russia as a temporary supplier.  Once it makes the switch to sustainable forms of energy, it will lose interest in Russia, and Putin will look like Kim Jong-Un in his golden palace, if he is even still around.  Many suspect that his health is failing and this is essentially his last hoorah, an attempt to give back to Russia its imperial boundaries before he kicks the bucket, and can be embalmed like Lenin and given a special place of honor in Red Square.  These rumors have circulated for the past decade, but how else to explain his irrational behavior, which has left his closest advisers at a loss for words to describe his actions?

I can only speculate on these matters.  I have no idea what is going through that addled mind of his.  I don't know how Putin expects to bring Ukraine into his sphere of influence after launching a full scale invasion like this?  He will have no support among its people.  There will be no Ukrainian army to support his puppet leader, just as there was no army to support Viktor Yanukovych when he was ousted in 2014.  He can call the current Ukrainian government Nazis as much as he likes, but that is not going to alter perceptions.  He is so clearly the aggressor that it is he who has been likened to Hitler, not Voldomyr Zelensky, who by the way is proudly Jewish.  It reminds me of the pathetic attempt to brand George Soros an SS officer, when he was only 9 years old when WWII broke out in Europe.

At this point, I think there are very few Russians who believe anything Putin says.  This maybe why he launched his invasion?  His troll farms have been exposed.  Countries have learned to combat his cyber attacks.  It's back to conventional warfare, hoping to impose his order on a people that have grown so far apart from Russia that there is no turning back.  If Putin decides to stay in Ukraine, he will encounter an insurgency that will last for years, a proxy war that will see NATO countries supply the Ukrainian rebels, resulting in another "Afghanistan" for Russia.  Of course, it will mean untold hardships for the Ukrainian people, but they've endured this before.  They are a very strong people.  Putin will never break their will!  

This is why we shout Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!