I was pretty excited back in July. It looked like this was going to be "Roevember" with women turning out in massive numbers after the Supreme Court repealed the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. New registration definitely favored women but all the state primaries seemed to suck the life out of this movement. Democratic numbers have been gradually slipping in the 538 election forecasts with the current forecast giving Democrats a 61% chance to retain the Senate. It was well over 70 percent at one point this past summer. Meanwhile, Republicans have built on their chances to retake the House, with 538 giving them a 75 percent advantage.
Once again, the Republicans have managed to seize the narrative from the Democrats, as conservatives try to make this election all about the economy. The mainstream media hasn't helped any by constantly pointing to the dire inflation numbers, rather than note the steady increase in jobs and other factors that indicate the economy is still strong. As a result, Biden's poll numbers have dropped significantly over the past year. His approval rating was below 40 percent at one point, a telltale sign that Democrats were in deep trouble. Although his approval rating has since climbed to around 45%, it is still below the threshold generally regarded to help his fellow Democrats in the midterms.
Just when you thought all hope was lost, Lindsey Graham introduced a national abortion ban. This seemed to catch the Republicans by surprise, particularly Mitch McConnell, who was trying to steer Republican Senate candidates away from the divisive issue. One would have thought this would serve as a second battle cry but Graham smartly positioned a dozen women to stand behind him. He knew that the numbers favored him. While most woman support choice, they do so "only under certain circumstances" like rape or incest, and generally within the first trimester. There is not this widespread feeling among women that abortion should be legal under any circumstances. Hence the 15 week cap that Graham proposed, which is safely outside the first trimester. Graham doesn't think women will reject Republicans over the Supreme Court decision this Fall.
He may be right. Current poll numbers indicate that even the most vehement Republicans on abortion will hold their seats and that House Republicans will gain seats across the country. It won't be a "tsunami" but enough to give Kevin McCarthy the House Speaker role he has long coveted.
This will be a sad day on many levels, not just because McCarthy is an empty shell of a man recycling Newt Gingrich's contract for the third time. Republicans will go back to doing what they do best - blocking legislation. That seems to be their overriding imperative. They believe that everything was just fine before all this civil right legislation and historic Supreme Court decisions emasculated our white-male-centered society. The even sadder part is that the majority of white women support Republicans.
I don't understand why that is. Angelina Chapin believes white women are perfectly content with their second-class status as long as it "puts them first with race and keeps them safe." Despite losing the election in a popular vote landslide, Trump still managed to win the white woman vote nationwide in 2020. If it wasn't for women of color, Biden may very well have lost the electoral college vote that year, given his razor thin victories in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
This seems kind of odd given that the women who led the equal rights movement in the 70s were predominantly white. Turns out white women as a whole favored Republican candidates even then. Phyllis Schlafly became the most outspoken proponent of this "silent majority." You can credit her for keeping the equal rights amendment out of the Constitution by working hard to get conservative states not to ratify it. Why? She felt it would allow women to use abortion as a form of birth control.
That's the way many people still see abortion. They think it is a product of promiscuous sex and that carrying a fetus to full term is the price these libidinous women should pay for their sexual indiscretions. It doesn't matter if the child was conceived through rape or incest, all fetuses are sacred in the eyes of the lord. This was essentially the position Judge Alito took in citing a 17th century jurist on the subject of abortion.
It's kind of odd that so many people still feel this way as "involuntary celibacy" seems to be a major concern these days. Zoe Williams points out that approximately 28% of men and 18% of women between the ages of 18 and 30 reported no sex at all in the preceding year. This has led to a lot of confusion among young men, as if women are purposely holding out. There are those who believe men should have a "right to sex." This includes Alexandra Hunt, a Democrat by the way, who thinks this drop in sexual activity will have dire long term consequences. I guess Alexandra wishes she grew up in the Age of Aquarius.
Sadly it seems that the #MeToo moment is over and we are returning to the same old "white heteropatriarchy," as Angelina Chapin calls it, which has plagued us for generations. I hope I'm wrong. I really wanted this to be Roevember. I can't stand the idea of Kevin McCarthy usurping Nancy Pelosi in the House, and god forbid Moscow Mitch regain control of the Senate. Otherwise, Ketanji Jackson Brown may be the last Supreme Court justice the Democrats get a chance to pick for decades. We need more liberal and moderate judges to balance out the conservative cabal we currently have in federal courts across the country.
Still, I wonder why white women don't get on board? They are voting against their own best interests. It's not just abortion but women's health in general. Not to mention their children's health, as Republicans do little to protect our most basic rights to reproductive health and education.
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