O Pioneers!

I let out a big sigh of relief Wednesday morning.  The biggest loser may be Nate Silver, whose 538 projections had the Republicans feeling pretty good about themselves heading into election day.  All the crucial elections seemed to be tilting their way but in the end the Democrats held their ground.  I was a bit surprised to see the forecasts turn so heavily in Republicans' favor in the closing weeks.  There was really nothing to indicate why this should be the case.  Yet, there they were with a 59% chance of regaining the Senate and an 84% chance of taking the House.

One of the problems was that polls were all over the place.  Nate was basing his projections on aggregates.  He also got a lot of governors' races wrong.  Most notably Arizona, where his forecast gave Kari Lake a 68 percent chance of winning.  It looks like Katie Hobbs will pull this race out as her narrow lead is widening with the counting of the notorious mail-in ballots.  Hobbs was ahead after the poll counting Wednesday morning so no reversal of fortunes as there was in 2020 for Donald Trump.  Still, Kari Lake is refusing to concede and will in all likelihood demand a recount.  Good luck coming up with 26,000 votes and counting.

This was one of the marquee match ups as Trump invested a lot of his time and energy in supporting Lake.  She was one of the more vocal "election deniers" that did poorly in these midterms.  All told there were more than 300 Republican election deniers in national and state elections.  This got a lot of play during the primaries but the press didn't seem to care much about it in the closing weeks of the campaign.  They were focusing more on the sagging economy, believing it would be the determining factor in these elections.  Turns out more persons were worried about the fate of our democracy, especially young voters who came to the polls in big numbers and tilted many of these close elections in the Democrats' favor.

I guess the conservatives' worst fear that Gen Z, or zoomers, had come true.  They believed this generation had been "groomed" in liberal ways and the results were stunning.  More than 60% of zoomers voted for Democrats nationwide.  In states like Pennsylvania, more than 70% voted for Fetterman, giving him a decisive edge over television quack Dr. Oz.  Some Republicans are now demanding the voting age be raised to 21 but it is too late.  Those who aren't 21 now will be in 2024.  This generation is here to stay.

We may be seeing a new wave forming that will take a heavy toll on Republicans in the near future.  Their conservative way of thinking, especially when it comes to social issues, doesn't sit well with this generation.  While zoomers are not fully satisfied with what Democrats have to offer, they certainly have a much more open and tolerant party that allows them to have a voice in it.  Maxwell Frost, 25, will be the first Gen Z member of Congress, easily defeating 72-year old Calvin Wimbish for the District 10 seat of Florida.

All those issues like LGBTQ+ rights, racial justice and global warming, which are very important to our youngest generation, will become even more central to politics in the years ahead.  The progressive wing of the Democratic Party will grow and we will see younger faces taking the lead.  Republicans can continue to challenge these views but it will be at their own peril.  These are no longer fringe issues.

A big issue that Republicans tried to capitalize on was student loan forgiveness.  Biden has offered a program that would provide up to $20,000 in debt relief.  Republicans really thought they had an issue here that would carry them through the midterms but it turns out they shot themselves in the foot.  Parents usually end up with the tab for these debts, not the students.  So, this debt relief was very much welcomed by a wide cross section of the country.  Frustrated, conservatives now take the issue to court, although I'm sure this decision will be overturned.

Across the board Republicans failed to judge the mood of the country.  On abortion they took a huge hit.  Not only did many states vote to extend abortion rights, but Democrats won key state legislatures like Michigan and Minnesota, reclaiming part of their "blue wall," while denying the heavily gerrymandered Wisconsin state legislature a Republican supermajority.  This was largely due to the abortion legislation Republicans planned to push through these states in the next two years thanks to the infamous Supreme Court decision this past summer.  

MAGA politics no longer works.  We saw that in such diverse states as Pennsylvania, Arizona and Kansas.  Yes, Kansas!  Not only did this state resoundingly reject an anti-abortion referendum earlier this year, but re-elected a Democrat Laura Kelly as governor despite stiff Republican opposition.

It is doubtful the Republicans will pursue a national abortion ban even if they are able to scratch out a narrow majority in the House.  Looking at the current House numbers on CNN, it is likely to be a 220-215 split for the Republicans, a far cry from the 20-30 seat majority they imagined.  At one point, Kevin McCarthy was imagining a 60-seat supermajority. 

This election defied expectations in so many ways.  What we saw was a very dynamic electoral landscape that will take time to fully assess.  The party that best addresses these diverse issues has the best future.  The one that doesn't is likely to crumble and right now that appears to be the Republicans, having once again put their faith in Trumpian politics despite the heavy losses they suffered the last two election cycles.  

For Trump that must be a very bitter pill.  He saw himself as a kingmaker, endorsing over 300 Republican candidates at the state and national level.  This was supposed to be his grand coming out party.  However, many Republicans are urging Trump to put his presidential declaration on hold, hoping that somehow they can take the last remaining Senate seat in the Georgia runoff.  They are afraid that if Trump declares now he will all but insure Sen. Warnock and the Democrats the victory.

Democrats still have to improve.  They made some highly questionable choices in the midterm primaries, like nominating Charlie Crist, a two-time loser, for Florida Governor.  Val Demings is a wonderful US representative but she had little chance to beat Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race.  The party has to look more closely at its Latin American representation.  It is losing it, largely because it has ignored this key part of its constituency.  The Democrats lost in the Miami Dade district by unthinkable wide margins.

They also faired poorly in New York, another Democratic stronghold.  If they end up losing the House, it will be here that many will look, as Republicans scored +6 in US Representative races.  One of the victims was House Democratic campaign chief Patrick Maloney.  Democratic US Representative candidates also found themselves struggling in California.  I think this was largely due to the Democrats essentially conceding the House before the elections and focusing too heavily on Senate campaigns.

All told more that $17 billion was poured into these midterms.  A new record in spending.  $1.3 billion was spent on top Senate races.  Nearly $400 million on the Pennsylvania Senate race alone.  Here the Democrats scored their biggest victory with John Fetterman putting to rest Dr. Oz's strange political ambitions that even saw the sainted Oprah Winfrey come out against him in the closing week.

I'm so glad these elections are over and that we will have a short break before everyone starts talking about 2024. President Biden can take a victory lap of sorts but questions remain as to whether he should run for a second term.  It's time for a new generation.  The Zoomers are still too young but it is time to start considering Millennials for higher offices.  Democrats have to tap into this group in a big way, as this is the country's future.