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Well, a few anyway ...


Noted anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has decided to drop out of the Democratic primaries and run as an Independent in next year's general election.  Ironically, he now poses more of a threat to Republicans than he does Democrats, as the RNC has released a list of 23 reasons not to support him.  The DNC has not released a similar list.

I suppose the biggest worry came when RFK Jr. was invited to speak at CPAC.  He has also drawn a lot of conservative backers, although I imagine most of them did so thinking he would run as a Democrat and potentially draw votes away from Biden.  However that didn't happen.  He trails Biden by as much as 53% in the 538 polls and is showing few signs of gaining traction.  Still, his 17% is higher than any Republican candidate running against Trump.  You have to wonder how he would do in the Republican primaries given that his signature issues are more in line with the conservative electorate?

The most ironic item in the memo that Ronna McDaniel published on social media is number 23 where RFK Jr. is called out for "denying" the 2000 and 2004 elections, which George W. Bush won.  I guess it's OK to deny the 2020 results, which you lost, but not previous ones that you won.  Anyway, I'm glad he's their problem now and not ours.

We still have Cornel West to worry about.  Although he is also running as an Independent, having dropped his Green Party tag, there is some danger he might draw away Black voters from Biden.  There are a lot of disgruntled Black men who don't think the Democratic party represents them but most of these disenfranchised voters have already migrated toward Trump, so it would seem that a West candidacy would also pose some problems for Republicans.

It is hard to tell how much these independent candidates pull from major party candidates.  Ross Perot had an undeniable impact on the 1992 election, drawing 19% of the popular vote.  While Perot didn't win any state, many felt that his candidacy undermined George H.W. Bush's re-election bid, allowing Bill Clinton to win many states with far less than a 50% majority. 

In 2000, there were those that felt Ralph Nader's independent bid cost Al Gore the hotly disputed Florida electoral college votes. Nader polled less than 2% but less than 600 votes separated Bush and Gore.  Had Al Gore won Florida he would have won the election.

Then came the highly controversial 2016 election, which Ronna would like us to ignore.  Trump lost the popular vote by more than 3 million, yet eked out Midwest states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to defeat Hillary Clinton in the electoral college.  Many thought that Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, took valuable votes away from Hillary in these states.  However, they are neglecting Gary Johnson, whose candidacy probably drew away more votes from Trump than Hillary, as Gary's views were more in line with the Libertarian wing of the Republican Party.  I think this is why Ronna is worried about RFK Jr.   Could he be another Gary Johnson?

It's far too early to tell as we have groups like No Labels lurking out there that could attract a more serious presidential candidate that would have a far deeper impact on the general election.  Plus, the Green Party has to look for someone else now that Cornel has dropped his nomination bid.    

In the meantime the Republicans are still trying to figure out which end is up both in Congress and on the Campaign Trail '24.  The turmoil in the House of Representatives has led to unwanted infighting and no Republican presidential candidate has been able to make a significant impact on Trump's "yuge" lead despite all his legal woes.  Kennedy should be the least of their worries at this point, but I guess Ronna is trying to think ahead, a very rare trait in today's GOP.


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