The Oscar controversies trumped the New Hampshire primary this week. People were more upset that Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie got snubbed for Oscars than they were Trump winning another primary. It wasn't like Barbie got shut out. Ryan Gosling and America Ferrera both received supporting actor nominations, but the snubs were slaps in the face for a movie that pulled in nearly $1.5 billion worldwide.
It was pretty much a foregone conclusion Trump would win the Granite State. He was polling more than 20 percent ahead of his nearest challenger. Yet, Nikki scored almost 45% of the vote. Of course this didn't stop him from celebrating his "yuge" victory, urging his former UN ambassador to accept defeat before he trounces her in her home state of South Carolina. He even had SC Senator Tim Scott behind him chanting USA! USA! USA! As if he had won a gold medal in the Olympics.
Meanwhile, Biden won without his name even being on the ballot, or even campaigning in the state. Still, Dean Phillips hailed it as a moral victory, having won nearly 20 percent of the vote. He refuses to drop out of the race despite having minimal support for his candidacy. Turnout was exceedingly low among Democrats with Phillips only garnering 21,000 votes. Vermin Supreme has a better chance of winning the nomination.
The first official Democratic primary is South Carolina. New Hampshire refused to adhere to the DNC new rules, as it had written in its state constitution that it is the first primary. Hence, New Hampshire had its delegates stripped. Joe wanted the Palmetto State to kick off the electoral season so that persons of color had a greater say in the primary process. The whole thing is absurd in that these tiny states have more say than populous ones like California and New York, which are pretty far down the primary schedule. I don't know why they can't have all these primaries on one day. Instead, we get a grueling reality show with candidates stomping around bitter cold Iowa and New Hampshire in an effort to get their names known to mostly white electorates that pride themselves on getting up close and personal with their would-be presidents.
Probably the best attempt to sum up this farce was Tanner '88. Not ironically, many New Hampshirites mistook the actor for a real candidate and voted for him. You can't really blame them when the main choices in 1988 were Dukakis, Jackson and Gore. Tanner ran as a Democrat.
The only thing these early primaries do is bolster the local economies with all the candidates, their entourages and media out there feasting on local food, staying in local motels and tootling around in rented cars. Iowa and New Hampshire felt a bit short changed this year as most of the Republican candidates had dropped out before election days. Only Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were left in Iowa, and by New Hampshire only Nikki Haley remained to challenge Trump. Now, Republicans are urging her to drop out and acknowledge the anointed one. Only problem is that there are a lot of Republicans who don't want Trump!
Orange Julius barely cracked 50 percent in each election. That's pretty bad for a self-proclaimed incumbent who has steadfastly refused to recognize the 2020 results. Conservative pundits are speaking out as it will only get worse for him as his trials are televised. Nikki is hoping that if she remains in the race his support will further evaporate. So, expect her to hang in there even if she loses South Carolina "bigly" in two weeks.
However, most Republicans see Trump's nomination as inevitable and are hoping that Nikki will withdraw her candidacy in such a way that Trump will pick her as Veep. As we know, he doesn't like to be challenged. She will have to use all her feminine wiles to convince Orange Julius that she can help his ticket in the Fall. She has polled much better than Trump among Independents. Right now, he seems to be leaning toward South Dakota Barbie Governor, Kristi Noem, who campaigned heavily for him in Iowa. She would offer him very little additional support.
In the same way, wayward Democrats are slowly coming to terms with the fact Biden isn't going to drop out despite all the speculation these past few months and that he will be their nominee. Not Deano, who has been trying to court tech bros who saw their Republican favorites drop out one by one. Dean Phillips has made pitches to Ackman and Musk in recent weeks to support his candidacy. Bill Ackman apparently tossed him a million dollars to match the campaign contributions he collected last quarter. So far, no other tech bro has bit. Jack Dorsey, who formerly owned Twitter, is sticking with his man, RFK Jr.
It must have been a bitter pill to swallow to see their candidates drop like flies. Tim Scott had the backing of Oracle's Larry Ellison. DeSantis had Musk in his corner until he began to fade, at which point Elon started pitching Vivek. Needless to say, Elon didn't prove to be much of an oracle. Vivek won less than 5% of the vote in Iowa. The tech bros don't want either Biden or Trump but failed to find a candidate to challenge the old men. Nikki would have been their best bet, but these bros prefer Ken to Barbie. Now, they have to choose between the candidates they most despise.
On the banking side, Jamie Dimon seems to have made his choice. He was pitching Trump at Davos of all places, making it sound like the former president was "kind of right" on immigration, the economy and NATO. Of course, Robert Reich begged to differ on this out of the blue critique of the Biden administration, especially when most world leaders are very happy with the return to normalcy in relations with the US. Dimon has always been a bit of a wildcard.
I think most investment bankers are relatively happy with the current state of affairs. It's the tech bros who like to play "disruptors," which is why guys like Musk will probably end up backing Trump again. They seem to relish the chaos he brings to the world.
Should Biden be worried? That's hard to say. It is still too far out of the general election for the fluctuating national and state polls to mean anything. Once the nominees are locked then we can begin to gauge the pulse of this country. So far, no major candidate has considered running as an Independent. We still have Joe Manchin feeling the waters, but it is doubtful he would generate anymore interest than Deano or Bobby Jr. I suppose if you add all those 0.5 and 0.7 percents together they might add up to 3 or 4 percent of the vote, which could turn key states one way or the other. Most people think it will be a close election again given how politically divided the country is. However, much depends on how these trials play out this year. Trump will be splitting his time between courthouses and the campaign trail in 2024.
Until then the biggest concern is with the Oscars. They will be given out about the same time as Super Tuesday in March. While Barbie is still up for Best Picture, Margot and Greta will most likely have to settle for costume and song awards for their lavish production. "I'm Just Ken" is up for best song, with Ryan milking the tune for all it is worth.
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