You almost had it all

 

After the first round Marine thought 280 seats were within her grasp but her National Rally party was outflanked on the second round of voting, finishing a disappointing third in the number of seats in the National Assembly.   The only question now is who does Macron side with, the leftist New Popular Front, who won the election, or the far-right National Rally, who would take the country back to Vichy France.

This surprising turn of events was a big blow not only to Putin, who was counting on a big upset in France, but to radical Republicans in America, who desperately wanted a big victory in Europe to legitimize their globalist conservative vision.  They had seen UK turn liberal just a few days ago.  They couldn't take another big loss.

For years, the Republican Party had been working hard to overturn governments in Europe, often working side by side with the Kremlin.  Richard Grenell was the conservative frontman of this cabal while serving as Trump's ambassador to Germany.  He actively supported the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the country, resulting in a major fall out with the German government, which was working hard to contain this radical far-right party.  Grenell was unabashed in the positions he took, running afoul of most European governments as he promoted other far-right political parties on the continent.  The aim was to try to engineer more "exit" movements from the EU as had happened with Britain in 2016, leaving Europe to be divided between the US and Russia in terms of spheres of influence.

I never really understood all this antipathy to the EU within Europe, as all countries have benefited from this alliance.  The EU is second only to the US in terms of GDP.  The two had traditionally worked together making it the largest trading block in the world.  No individual country in Europe would come close to matching this trade power.  Not to mention the many benefits EU countries received from being part of this massive trade bloc.  Yet, here were all these far-right parties perfectly willing to throw away all these benefits for the sake of their cultural purity.  Ironically, the same racists and bigots vociferously cheer on their national and club football teams, who are made up mostly of descedants of African immigrants. 

Marine played right into this contradictory sentiment by going out of her way to recruit football players.  When they chose not to play with her, she vilified them, as was the case with national hero Kylian Mbappe.  Like most fascists and racists, Marine didn't want to be seen as fascist and racist so it was important to lure popular persons of color to her party.  You see the same in Germany, the UK, and the US.  If you have "black friends," as Donald Trump likes to boast, you can't possibly be racist.  So, all this talk of white nationalism is just poppycock. 

Yet, these "traditional values" that conservatives like to promote are simply a code word for white nationalism.  The Kremlin has long been promoting these values yet has no problem bombing children's hospitals in Kyiv, far away from the front line of the war.  You would think even the most hardened right-wing ideologue in Europe would have a problem with this, but Marine wants France to quit supporting Ukraine so that Vlad can run his Z army through the country, obliterating once and for all any semblance of Ukrainian identity.

I suppose it didn't help matters when Macron suggested sending troops to Ukraine, which up to now European countries have assiduously avoided.  No one was quite sure where this came from, as Macron had pretty much sat on the fence throughout the war while pushing peace initiatives with Moscow.  However, a few months ago he became an avid supporter of Ukraine and even pledged some serious firepower to Zelensky, including Mirage jets.  It remains to be seen if he will actually deliver on these promises.

Most French are satisfied with keeping the war at a long arm's reach.  They are fine with humanitarian aid but don't want to up the ante with military aid, which I suppose is why Marine and the New Popular Front did so well in the parliamentary elections.  Socially, the two parties couldn't be further apart and one presumes that Macron's coalition party will join with the NPF to form a ruling coalition despite it being a bitter pill to swallow.  Macron was hoping that his coalition would win an outright majority and that he would be able to remake France on his terms.  Now, he is forced to compromise.

The Kremlin and Mar-a-Lago have seen their big dream of a conservative takeover of France evaporate.  They will have to make due with lesser European stooges like Viktor Orban, who will be heading the Hungarian delegation that ceremoniously leads the EU for the next 6 months.  He chose to inaugurate this high honor by traveling to Moscow to meet with Vlad himself.  A move that has been condemned by both the EU and NATO.  No matter, Viktor showed his "good faith" by traveling to Kyiv to promote the idea of a ceasefire on Russian terms.

Like it or not, Ukraine remains the most pressing issue in Europe and indeed the world.  It would be nice to think that EU and NATO ascension would break Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence, but as we have seen in Hungary, Slovakia and even Melania's home country of Slovenia, Russia still has a great deal off influence in Eastern Europe, and indeed Europe as a whole.  Nevertheless, it would give Ukraine the economic and military security it has long desired.  It is still a long way away but the second round of elections offered better promise than the first round did.

Meanwhile back in America, the Trump campaign lays low for a change, waiting to see how all this uncertainty over Biden's debate performance pans out.  It is rare not to see Trump stealing front page headlines with his many lies and absurd claims, but right now it is Joe's "dementia" that fills news print, with growing speculation that his wife Jill and White House staff have long been covering up Joe's feeble mindedness.  It doesn't matter that he almost single-handedly held NATO together in the face of Russian aggression and took a 10-hour train ride to Kyiv to personally give Zelensky his assurances.  In the minds of many, Joe should be wrapped in a straight jacket and delivered to the sanitorium.

I think that once we get over this current obsession with Joe's poor debate performance, we might get back to the real matters at hand, primarily maintaining strong alliances in the face of a rising imperial Asian threat.  Putin met with world leaders in Kazakhstan with the hope of forming an alliance that would rival that of the US and EU.  This "club of Eurasian countries" represents a very serious existential threat and the only way to counter it is with Western unity.  There were some key no-shows, notably India, suggesting that some of these Asian countries aren't too anxious to break ties with the West. 

This is no time for isolationism.  We need strong leaders who will keep the world from dividing along imperial lines.  After all, China is far more dependent on its trade ties to the West than it is its oil and gas ties to Russia.  While we will never be able to completely contain Russia, we should work hard toward maintaining at least a cordial relationship with China that will give Xi pause before signing any further agreements with Putin.  France dodged a bullet.  I can only hope that the US will do the same in November.