Kamala took to the airwaves this week to counter all the accusations that she has been ducking the press. The big one was a special 60 Minutes segment on Monday night where she batted away the more pointed questions and fielded the more genial ones. She also had interviews with Howard Stern, The View and a podcast Call Her Daddy, which seemed to generate the most controversy largely because the host, Alex Cooper, normally doesn't interview politicians, but made an exception given the historic nature of Kamala's campaign. Oh, and she had a beer with Stephen Colbert.
It's hard to say what the impact of these interviews will be on the campaign. Trump provided a running commentary for his MAGA folk, filled with the invectives we have come to expect from the anointed one. He had a chance to do a separate interview for 60 Minutes but bailed at the last minute, saying he wasn't going to allow himself to be fact checked on air. If there is one thing these MAGA folk can't stand it is being fact checked. They believe everything in their MAGAverse is just fine.
I mailed my Overseas ballot this past week. I had worried a little when the electronic ballot didn't pitch up in my email by the end of September, but there it was October 1. I filled out the form, printed it and sent it on its way to Renton, Washington. I had to declare a value on the document for the first time, so I wrote one dollar, hoping that it wouldn't garner any snags on the other end. I have a tracking number.
Polls haven't exactly budged, at least not in the so-called battleground states. As Howard said in his interview, it is hard to understand why they are so close. The difference between Donald and Kamala is night and day. Yet, here we are less than 4 weeks out from E-Day and the two are polling virtually even across the board. NYTimes threw its usual spanner into the mix by giving Florida to Trump ahead of time, claiming he has a whopping 13-point lead in his adopted state, where other polls show it much closer.
In an effort to try to figure out these wildly fluctuating polls, I turned to Vox. This is one of the more reliable sources when it comes to understanding the political landscape. It hasn't been bought by Disney yet, and as far as I know Ezra Klein, Melissa Bell and Matthew Yglesias still run the website. One of the reasons Christian Paz puts forward for these unusually close polls is that the polling services don't want to make the same mistake they made in 2016 and 2020 of underestimating Trump's hidden following, largely first-time voters that they missed in their earlier surveys. I would think that after 8 years he has pretty much turned over all the rocks, but it's better to err on the side of another late surge than it is to be caught having missed a large segment of the electorate.
However, we saw the reverse happen in 2022, where polling services grossly overestimated Republican turnout, resulting in a receding red wave come election day that saw the Democrats retain the Senate and barely lose the House. This left a lot of folks dumbstruck, notably Nate Silver, who had gone along with the "red wave" the last week of the Congressional campaigns and gave the Republicans a 60% chance of winning the Senate, when he was still in command of 538. Nate, like many others, didn't think Roe was that big an issue. He thought the flagging economy would drag down Democrats with inflation at its peak that summer.
What we have learned from the last two presidential elections and midterm elections in between is that the economy is no longer the primary issue in most voters' minds. Social issues are. This explains why Kamala went on Call Her Daddy and The View, two programs that cater predominantly to women. Alex Cooper's podcast is particularly vital to Kamala, as Alex's viewing audience is largely women under 40 with a big segment from southern states. Alex is second only to Joe Rogan on Spotify in the size of followings. These favorable venues allowed Kamala to lay out her views on reproductive rights and other concerns women have this election cycle.
For his part, Donald is doing the same by going on alpha male podcasts hoping to pick up disenfranchised young male voters he might have missed the first two times. These addled young men think the world is too woke and needs to return to the roaring 80s, Donald's heydey, when you could pinch young womens' bottoms with impunity. Not that they have any memory of this but have movies like The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle to remind them.
It is hard to say how big this group is. Their young leaders have been beset with a host of sexual abuse charges. Andrew Tate still finds himself under house arrest in Romania awaiting trial for sex with a minor and trafficking girls. Very serious charges that his following chooses to dismiss.
While Donald projects himself as the ultimate "alpha male," Kamala has enjoyed poking his faux persona during interviews. This is what really gets his goat, resulting in him questioning her intelligence and calling Alex "one dumb woman" for hosting his opponent. While this may play well among his MAGA following, it isn't endearing him to the wide swathe of independent voters who will determine the outcome of this election.
Kamala has done her best to balance women's issues with that of the American population as a whole. A big reason for bringing Tim Walz on board was that he would appeal to working class men who might be a little worried about a woman running the White House. She also has big "dudes" campaigning for her, like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, who pulled off one of those 2022 surprises by taking the Pennsylvania Senate seat formerly held by a Republican. However, she hasn't convinced union "bros" like Teamsters president Sean O'Brien to support her, even as she has picked up widespread union support across the country, including local chapters of Teamsters. Much of this is the inherit misogyny that prevails in this country.
Donald has done his level best to tap that misogyny. He has derided Kamala Harris at every rally and continually diminished her on Truth Social. He also has Elon Musk to help him out on X, although after that less than manly jump for joy at Trump's infamous Butler rally, you have to wonder if he is still considered one of the "bros." You have to see it to believe it. No one can quite figure out what strategy "Leon," as Trump called him, is employing here. It seems mostly to garner more voter information to feed his hungry AI monster Grok, but he says he will rally MAGA supporters in battleground states for his new BFF Donnie. It's kind of a lazy "get out the vote" campaign, whereas candidates have traditionally solicited volunteers to go door to door. This is what Kamala is doing. She has a massive volunteer force that is personally knocking on doors, hoping that this will counter Donald's internet drive.
Kamala has now surpassed the 1 billion mark in donations in less than three months, dwarfing Donald's fundraising efforts over the same period. Yet, he seems to be having no problem reaching voters, which makes one wonder how much money he is getting under the table. We won't find out until after the election.
She seems to be doing everything right, yet finds herself "statistically" tied with Donald in all the battleground states. This despite voters in the same states overwhelmingly preferring Democratic candidates in statewide elections for governor and/or senator. Let's look at Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democratic Senator Casey is polling comfortably ahead of Republican challenger McCormick. Yet, we are to believe Trump has a 2-point lead over Kamala, according to InsiderAdvantage. I don't think there is that big a swing in the state electorate, especially in a traditionally Democratic state. But, no one wants to be caught underestimating Trump's extraordinary election day pull.
Michael Moore is not buying it. He recently declared Trump's campaign "toast". This is the same guy who predicted Trump would win in 2016 when Hillary took his home state Michigan for granted. There is really no reason to believe this election is that close.
What we are getting are a lot polling services hedging on their numbers, much like we saw in 2022. They are imagining a "yuge" MAGA turnout on election day that will rock the vote. Meanwhile, Trump is literally off the rails, unable to put any kind of coherent speech together at a rally, recently babbling something about circles in Detroit, or field even the most easily tossed softballs at friendly interviews, without going off on "Comrade Kamala." She has really gotten under his skin by calling into question the one thing he values most - his manhood. He hasn't been able to find a way to effectively counter these endless barbs, and it is driving him crazy!
Kamala isn't letting up. This was a big week for her and I imagine we will be seeing much more of her in the three weeks remaining before E-Day. Most importantly, she is tailoring her campaign specifically to the states that matter most this election cycle. Trump's latest antic is to host campaign rallies in California and New York, presumably for national media attention as he has no chance of winning these states. But, who knows maybe the NYTimes has Donald and Kamala running neck and neck in New York?
We'll see on election day whether these wild efforts in the waning weeks of Campaign Trail '24 have any appreciable effect on the outcome. I think Donald is just trying realize a dream that has long faded as more and more voters turn away from him. At this point, it seems he is only left with his deluded base.
I am very much hoping that November 6 will usher in our first "Madam President!"
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