Our Man in Riyadh

Steve Witkoff addressing the press on the White House lawn.

Listening to Steve Witkoff herald Putin as a man who wants peace is one the most cynical things I've heard recently.  All through these "negotiations," Russian missiles have been raining down on Ukrainian cities.  An unrelenting barrage that has seen a daily average of 23 warheads since the start of the war in February, 2022.  The prime targets have been civilian buildings, although Putin claims these are military targets much like Netanyahu claims everything is fair game in Gaza.  To date, more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have died and another 30,000 injured, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission. Not to mention the millions that have been displaced.  Then there is all the infrastructure that has been destroyed. Putin's forces have taken out an estimated $58 billion in housing alone.  Close to $200 billion in infrastructure all together, as of December 31, 2024.  For the past three years, Putin has truly made life miserable for Ukrainians, to the point that even if Zelenskyy were to agree to a ceasefire, there would be little chance of reconciliation between the two countries.  Yet, Witkoff is "optimistic."

I suppose the only optimism is that the US might be able to strike a deal with Ukraine to restore some of this infrastructure in exchange for mineral and energy rights.  This seems to be the gist of the Trump administration's overtures to this point.  Trump sent Scott Bessent, his Secretary of the Treasury, to Kyiv earlier in the year to sign such a minerals agreement, but Zelenskyy rejected it as it offered no security guarantees whatsoever. This is what led to the fiery clash in the White House, where Trump and Vance teamed up on Zelenskyy, blaming him for the impasse.  Since then, efforts have been made to smooth over the differences, but the bitter resentment remains.  The only thing the Trump administration seems interested in is gaining control of Ukrainian assets.  For Donald this is little more than a real estate deal.

Meanwhile, the EU has been trying to join together to give Ukraine the assistance it needs both economically and militarily to get through another year of war.  A $40 billion deal was put on the table but Spain and Italy among other countries rejected it, mostly because they didn't like the idea of putting a peace-keeping force in Ukraine.  Everyone knows any peace deal will not be lasting in Ukraine given Putin's imperial ambitions.  Now we hear talk of a "coalition of the willing" among European countries that have a more active stake in the outcome of this war.  

Coincidentally, a power station near Heathrow caught fire last week shutting down the busy international airport for a day, which has many pointing the finger at the Kremlin.  Putin of course dismissed the accusation but it is most likely part of a "hybrid war" Russia has engaged in with European countries dating back to the massive cyberattack on Estonia in 2007, expressly aimed at undermining the EU, and ultimately picking off Eastern European countries, much like Putin has Crimea and the land bridge created through Ukraine.

It is easy to see where the two points converge.  Republicans have long wanted to undermine the EU's growing economic power.  It is the world's second largest economy behind the United States and its Euro is perceived as a direct threat to the Dollar. Ever since Dubya's administration starting in 2001, Republicans have gone out of their way to undermine the Euro.  First by devaluing the dollar, hoping that it would lead to a flood of cheap American imports in Europe, and then later by playing off Eastern European countries against Western European countries by striking bilateral deals with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic that the Bush administration hoped would give it more influence in these fledgling EU and NATO countries.  In this sense, Trump is just carrying out the Republican agenda by taking an even more aggressive stance toward the EU in the form of tariffs and idle threats that have EU countries scrambling to come up with a counter message.  

Both Russia and the US want the EU to fail.  Putin and Trump figure they can divide up Europe much like their countries did after WWII.  Even Bush wasn't willing to go that far, shouting "No more Yaltas" in his fiery speech in the Vilnius town hall square in 2002. A plaque on the old city hall commemorates that speech, in which Bush also said, "Anyone who would choose Lithuania as an enemy has also made an enemy of the United States."  Yet here we are 23 years later with Trump essentially willing to cede Eastern Europe to Putin if it would stave off "World War III."  

Putin's conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine go well beyond this country.  He wants a rollback of US and NATO forces throughout Eastern Europe.  The US contingent in Riyadh reportedly rejected this condition, but Trump seems willing to put anything on the table if it gets him the deal he wants.  He similarly sold out Afghanistan to the Taliban in 2020.  As a result, Eastern European countries are investing heavily in military infrastructure and hardware.  Poland and the Baltic states are actively considering pulling out of the Anti-Personnel Mines Convention so that they can landmine their borders with Belarus and Russia.  That's how real the fear has become that Russia will one day attack these countries.

For Eastern European countries, WWIII began long ago.  Russia has been actively undermining elections, targeting civilian infrastructure through cyberattacks and flooding borders with illegal immigrants for the last two decades.  Its aim has been to promote Pro-Russian political parties by generating existential fears.  While it has succeeded in creating these existential fears, it so far has only managed to find sympathetic governments in Hungary and Slovakia among EU member states.  In the last parliamentary election, less than 20% of Lithuanians voted for pro-Russian parties and that mostly out of ignorance.  Still, the threat level remains high.

Why it has to be this way is anyone's guess?  It's not like any of these countries represent a threat to Russia or challenge the United States' economic might.  Quite the opposite, they would prefer to maintain economic ties with both countries, but seeing the growing threat that Putin represents they have come to regard NATO as the only line of defense they have against Russian aggression.  The fact that Putin wants to remove that line of defense only serves to reinforce this existential fear.

Currently, European countries buy a whopping 60% of their military hardware from the United States, including the vaunted F-35 fighter jets that the US is so anxious to sell to make up for its $1.7 trillion investment into these "next generation" jets.  There are European alternatives but the production levels don't meet current demands.  As a result, European countries spend roughly $200 billion on American military supplies each year, not to mention pay for hosting American military forces.  The notion that the US is "footing the tab" for NATO is complete nonsense.  This is a very lucrative arrangement that amounts to one-fourth of the US military annual budget.

Yet, the Trump administration has very clearly prioritized Russia over the EU.  They seem to think there is an "untapped potential" they are missing out on even if Russia's buying power is a tiny fraction of that of the EU.  Trade between the US and EU is staggering.  The trade in military hardware helps make up for some of the imbalance in domestic goods, but thanks to Trump's adversarial tone European countries are now beefing up military production to cut their reliance on American munitions.  This riff doesn't suit anyone's interests other than Russia.  This while Putin has clearly put his country's economic future in BRICS.

So it is not just Ukraine that finds itself caught between two military superpowers, but all of Europe, much like they were between WWI and WWII.  Europe is in a better defensive position than it was then, with Germany an ally rather than a combatant, but still this is not a position it wants to be in.  Ever since WWII it has rested its security on its trans-Atlantic relationship with the United States and now it fears it can no longer trust the US if push were to come to shove in Ukraine.

So where does Witkoff fit in all this.  The "special envoy" is a billionaire real estate developer like Trump.  He seems to have a special interest in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia in particular, which is why these "peace talks" are being held in Riyadh.  However, he appears to have no diplomatic experience, and as a result is being played by Moscow to the point it has become laughable.  In an interview with Sean Hannity, he claimed Putin told him that he "prayed for Trump" after the assassination attempt.  His assessment of the Russian autocrat is that he is "super smart" and "not a bad guy."  This would make just about anyone who has analyzed Putin in any depth cringe, as Vlad is perfectly willing to sacrifice his own people for his personal gain, which he has proven time and time again. Witkoff is either incredibly naive or has an economic interest for pushing Russia's agenda. Whatever the case, this is the last guy you want to have leading negotiations as he admitted himself he badly underestimated Hamas.