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Vladimir, STOP!


Those were the words of Donald Trump after Vladimir Putin launched one of the worst air raids on Kyiv since the start of the war.  This after Russia supposedly made a number of "concessions" including not taking Ukraine as a whole.  This was Putin's objective from the start of the war. Remember that 60-kilometer long convoy closing in on Kyiv back in March, 2022, only to watch it get picked apart by drones, with the husks of the tanks carried away by Ukrainian tractors.  

This war has been a terrible failure for Putin as he has been unable to secure his gains and has lost well over 100,000 soldiers in the process.  Overall Russian casualties are nearly 1 million.  It has been a huge embarrassment for his country to take a beating like this.  After all, Russia was supposed to be second only to the United States as a military power.  But, Putin is not one to back down and will continue his attacks, hoping that Ukraine will eventually be forced to submit with its major source of military funding no longer available.

Three years into the war, Ukraine produces 40% of its military equipment.  The US supplies about 30 percent and the rest comes from a variety of sources, mostly European countries.  Kyiv also signed an agreement with Japan to provide sophisticated satellite coverage that would supplant Starlink, which the US currently supplies. European countries have also said they would boost military aid to Ukraine should the US pull out.  It seems Ukraine could sustain this war indefinitely with or without US support.

Vladimir Putin desperately wants a peace agreement that would allow him to cleave off Eastern Ukraine, entrench his military along the border, and essentially create a Kaliningrad on the Black Sea.  In this way he could control the flow of goods in and out of this large interior sea.  This not only affects Ukraine but Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia as well.  It would be a big coup for him and the Trump administration seems willing to comply.

Of course Vlad would want all of Ukraine, as he has never recognized it as a country independent from Russia, but rather as a semi-autonomous oblast that is currently a bit unruly.  Since he regards Ukrainians as fellow Russian Slavs, he can't raze Ukraine to the ground like he did Chechnya.  Instead, he picks at its cities hoping to break their will.  He has only strengthened Ukrainian resolve, with Zelensky continuing to enjoy high approval marks despite what Russian propaganda channels provided to Trump.

To this point, the Trump administration has relied almost exclusively on Russian propaganda outlets, which are filtered through Truth Social and other conservative American media outlets, for its assessment of the situation.  It has virtually ignored any news to the contrary.  This was why Trump claimed Zelensky had only 4 percent approval. Donald had picked this nugget up from an anonymous poll on Telegram that had probably been posted on Truth Social, his favorite media outlet.

The strain of these "negotiations" was made visible when Marco Rubio barked back at reporters on the tarmac that the US would "move on" if Russia and Ukraine didn't show more progress in the peace talks.  Marco pulled out of the talks in London, leaving former Gen. Kellogg high and dry as he tried to carry on efforts between the UK and Ukraine.  Marco obviously got scolded for these comments back in Washington, as he sang a very different tune in the White House yesterday.  The reality is that we are nowhere near the "finish line." Unless the US starts taking Ukrainian concerns into account it can forget ever reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, much less end to the war.  How is it in Kyiv's interests to have virtually no security guarantees even if it were to cede Crimea and the land bridge created by Russian forces to the Kremlin?

This is where the negotiations break down.  The Trump administration is offering virtually nothing to Ukraine.  Donald claims that the mere presence of American companies mining rare earth minerals and rebuilding the energy infrastructure in Ukraine would be enough to deter Russia from further encroaching on Ukraine.  Apparently, the White House agreed to some "pact" with the Kremlin to split resources between them.  This is what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to shove down Pres. Zelensky's throat when they first met in Kyiv in February.  Zelensky politely said no and was roundly chastised by Trump and Vance at a White House meeting later that month.  As far as Trump is concerned, this is a real estate transaction, and he doesn't understand why it is taking so long.

He thought he had Vladimir under control, after all the terms of the agreement were so favorable to him, but here was Vlad bombing Kyiv yet again for no apparent reason, as if rubbing Donald's nose in the ground.  This isn't about Ukraine.  It's about Donald's own legitimacy.  If he can't swing a deal he looks weak, and Vladimir made him look weak. Very weak indeed, if the best Donald can utter out of his butthole mouth is "Vladimir, STOP!"  At least he didn't say please.

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