The United States set a different tone at the Munich Security Conference this past week but the message was the same - it's my way or the highway. Of course that's been the US message for decades but it was never more bluntly presented than it was last year when VP Vance was given the administration's honor of deliver the message. This year Trump sent a kinder, friendlier Marco Rubio to deliver the Valentine's Day message.
Marco had to wait until Ukrainian President Zelenskyy delivered his message of European unity in its perpetual war against Russia, noting that there would be no peace by accommodating the Kremlin, which the US seems intent on doing. He noted that Russia is currently losing more soldiers on the front line than it is able to replace. The massive casualties are not stopping Putin, whom Zelenskyy called a "slave to war."
There was a whole lot of talk about PURL, which is a special fund set up last year to deliver military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the bitter ongoing Russian assault of Ukrainian cities, as many as 400 drones and 100 missiles per night. Most of this aid is coming from the EU and Canada but NATO General Sec. Mark Rutte was quick to point out that Donald Trump is the "daddy" of the organization.
Rutte has become an extremely annoying presence as he constantly defends Trump despite the growing unrest in Europe vis-a-vis the United States. Ever since Trump's National Security Strategy was leaked last December, European countries have been on edge, especially after he made his audacious bid for Greenland at the start of the New Year. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen is still convinced that Trump has every intention of seizing the island country.
Marco tried to give reassurances that this was not the case. He even called the US the "child of Europe," evoking the words of Mariah Carey's "We Belong Together." This while the US was sending aircraft carriers toward Iran with many expecting to see a massive aerial bombardment in the next few days. The US has also made tariff threats against any country that tries to bail Cuba out of its massive humanitarian crisis in the face of an overwhelming American embargo. I suppose Trump is seeking EU and NATO support for these extralegal actions.
It should be noted that Marco is in Bratislava today to meet with Robert Fico and tomorrow will be in Budapest to reaffirm support of Viktor Orban. Donald texted his support on Truth Social, not that very many Hungarians look at his personal social platform. This essentially negates anything Marco said in Munich, as Fico and Orban have been blocking many of the EU initiatives to bolster support for Ukraine, and urging fellow European leaders to accommodate Putin. As a result, we now have a "coalition of the willing" with financial support going through PURL, a Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List set up by NATO.
It's ironic that the US wants European support when it comes to Iran and Cuba but isn't willing to bring Europe to the negotiation table with Russia in regard to Ukraine. Throughout this "process," which began last January when Trump returned to power, there has been no attempt to include the EU or any European country other than to use Orban as an occasional intermediary. At one point Viktor even suggested Budapest as a meeting place for bilateral talks between the US and Russia but Vlad would have had to fly over European countries less amenable to his presence and politely said no.
Boxed out, European leaders still tried to placate Trump, telling him how important he was in establishing dialog with Moscow, even if it didn't lead to anything. This was before the draft of the NSS was leaked and European leaders discovered they had been played. Trump never had any intention of involving them. In fact, the new NSS, courtesy Project 2025, made it clear that his administration actively planned to promote alternative political parties throughout Europe, supporting nativism over European unity. He has now been in office 9400 hours, plus or minus 24 hours.
This "unpresidented" American assault on Europe aligned with Russia's long-term strategy to sow seeds of dissent throughout the continent. It was Russia, not the US, which helped Orban and Fico gain power in Hungary and Slovakia, and has likewise supported Andrej Babiš, who last year took control of the Czech parliament after his party narrowly won that election. The aim is to break apart the EU and divide the continent into spheres of influence, just like it was throughout the Cold War. Sadly this seems to be the only type of world that Putin and Trump understand.
This leaves Europe trapped between the proverbial rock and hard place. Its long standing ties with the US are unraveling before our eyes, yet European leaders don't believe they have the resources to challenge Trump, so they continue to accommodate him when they know it is against their own best interests.
With few places to turn, Europe has shifted toward China in an effort to lessen its reliance on the US. This after going out of its way to limit Chinese imports these past ten years. Lithuania got caught in the middle of this a few years ago when it chose to recognize the Republic of Taiwan, largely to accommodate a massive investment in its tech industry. China pulled all ties to Lithuania as a result. The EU and Biden administration supported Lithuania at the time but now that all seems moot as the EU is signing trade deals with China. Lithuania is left to wonder if it made the right choice given Taiwan hasn't matched the investments it pledged back in 2022.
European leaders know that these trade agreements are fraught with peril as China is firmly allied with Russia, but what's a "mother" to do? She is forced to cut her umbilical ties with her American "child," at the very least lessen them, in an effort to save herself. Bush was bad enough and many thought the EU would chart other partnerships but then came Obama and EU leaders thought Europe and the US were back on the same page. It has become clear in Europe that she can no longer rely on the US to maintain a steady alliance and that it will have to forge its own identity separate from the United States, both economically and militarily. Unfortunately, it could take decades for this to happen as their economies and NATO are so deeply intertwined. As such, Europe is forced to weather these crises, creating backstops to lessen the economic fallout as we saw in 2008.
This means Europe has to swallow her pride when Marco or JD come over to lecture her on immigration and national identity. There is only so much she can do at this point in time and that means accommodating the United States despite the growing unease felt across the continent. A lot hinges on the upcoming elections in Hungary, which has seen the opposition party Tisza mount the strongest challenge in years to Orban's tight grip on the country, in case you were wondering why Marco is visiting Budapest tomorrow.
While a Tisza victory would be a moral victory for Europe, Peter Magyar has signaled he would still oppose Ukraine's accelerated ascension to the EU, although he would lessen Hungary's ties with Russia. This points to one of the central weaknesses in the EU charter that insists on unanimous consent from its 27 member states to pass any sort of binding resolution. Europe puts itself at the mercy of these rogue states, forced to use economic pressure to bring them to the table. For years, the EU has withheld funding to Hungary unless it goes along with the resolutions on the table.
To be fair, its not just "Eastern" European countries that have been a thorn in the EU side, but "Western" countries like Austria, Italy and even the Netherlands, which periodically block EU initiatives. The EU finally rid herself of the UK but that was on the British own terms, as the EU has no mechanism to expel a country. She has always billed herself as a friendly alliance, preferring the carrot and occasional stick, which grew from 6 core states in the 1950s to what you see today.
Maybe it is time to take a harder stance? With a population of approximately 40 million, Ukraine would amply offset the losses of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, not to mention offer far greater redevelopment opportunities with the roughly 250 billion euros in frozen Russian assets it has at its disposal. Plus, it would send a strong message to rogue countries that adopting nationalist policies counter to EU principles will no longer be tolerated. Unfortunately, it would take a unanimous vote to do this.
If nothing else I want to see European leaders stand up to Trump and his minions. The US is just as dependent on Europe as we are on the US. We should let our wayward "child" know that the world is not his playground and that he has to answer to international law and conventions. Otherwise, we are doomed.
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