"Victory" doesn't smell so sweet this time around as Vlad has not been able to deliver victory in Ukraine. You would think the autocrat would cut his losses, accept the fact that the Dnipro is his limit and amalgamate the "breakaway" provinces into the Russian federation, but no. Vlad wants all or nothing. He continues to demand Ukraine pull its forces from these embattled oblasts so that he can claim all of the Donbas and other disputed regions that straddle the Dnipro river. Well folks that ain't going to happen and why should it? This was never Vlad's land to begin with.
He might have been able to make some claim to Crimea as Russia fought for and won it back in the 19th century (read Siege of Sevastopol by Tolstoy) only to include it as part of the Ukraine SSR during the Soviet Era. At the time the Soviet Union had no other means of providing state-run utilities except through Ukraine and so Stalin "gifted" this oblast to the Socialist Republic. Of course, no one ever thought Ukraine would secede as the Soviet Union began to crumble in 1991 but every oblast, including Crimea, voted for independence. Granted only 37% of the Crimean electorate voted but the referendum won with 54% of the vote. So, Crimea joined Ukraine. In Donetsk and Luhansk the size of the electorate and yes vote was much greater. You can't undo history as much as Vlad would like to.
Tensions are starting to grow in Moscow as allies are doubting Putin's handling of the situation. Lukashenko was visibly unhappy at the scaled-down Victory Day parade that didn't even see armored carriers and missiles this year. I suppose they have all been used or are reserved for the ongoing "military action" in Ukraine. To date an estimated 350,000 Russian soldiers have died of the more than one million casualties that have been reported in this non-war. It has tested the patience of even his most stalwart allies.
Four years is a long time to suffer sanctions, especially if you are Belarus, which has few means to sustain itself. Its GDP per capita is a pathetic 8500 USD, roughly one-fourth of that of its neighbor Lithuania, which Putin repeatedly decries as a failed state. Poland now has one of the largest economies in the EU and continues to grow. It's overall GDP topped one trillion USD for the first time last year, while Belarus' GDP is less than 100 billion. As a result, Belarusians have resorted to smuggling cigarettes and vodka into their neighboring countries, using some rather ingenious means. Since Vilnius' airport is rather close to the Belarus border, this has led to periodic night-time groundings of commercial aircraft with these weather balloons wreaking havoc on airspace. Some believe this is deliberate.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration keeps giving lifelines to the pathetic leadership. In exchange for freeing political prisoners, Trump's emissary to Minsk grants concessions, usually without discussing it with neighboring states. This has been going on for several months and each time it comes as a surprise what special envoy John Coale is willing to give without informing Lithuanian or Polish governments. When he is in Vilnius, he can usually be found consulting opposition leaders favorable to Trump. Given that over 1000 US troops are stationed in Lithuania, the current government would like to remain on favorable terms with the White House and so they swallow their pride and accept these demands, as Belarus needs a "corridor" to get its products to market. Why they can't use their back porch I have no idea? It's not like the EU is accepting any of its goods. However, that's the world we live in.
It's too bad as Belarus has great potential but they blew it 30 years ago when they voted for this buffoon. From the start dragged the country into a hell hole. I remember when I first came to Lithuania in 1997, Belarus was staging mixed martial arts (MMA) fights that were known for their unrestricted brutality. Several fighters died in the ring. Lukashenko would periodically take ownership of embassy properties that had been upgraded, and in general made a pariah of himself throughout Europe. Russia too for that matter as Putin had a hard time reining him in. Nevertheless, Lukashenko survived largely because of the overtures he made toward the West whenever he didn't get what he wanted for Russia. The West determined to bring Belarus into its orbit would entertain him only to find its embassies impounded once again. Basically, Lukashenko was a petty con artist who managed to get away with these scams until 2020 when voters had enough. The only problem was that the elections were shams too with Lukashenko throwing out the results and declaring himself winner. This is how we ended up with so many Belarusians living in Vilnius as the opposition leaders, family and friends had to escape somewhere and this was the nearest place to go after Lukashenko's brutal crackdown.
Still Europe entertained the silver fox, refusing to clamp down on his lawless behavior. I guess they wanted that cheap timber and fertilizer that Belarus had in abundance. I remember meeting one enterprising Brit years ago who had a timber export business going between Belarus and the UK. No restrictions, he said, you can cut down anything, whereas Lithuania tries to protect its old growth forests. In many ways, Eastern Europe is the last bastion of the European wilderness. We still have bison, moose and wolves over here. All that came to an end in 2022 when Lukashenko sided with Moscow over Europe and he's been bemoaning that decision ever since.
There's nothing to be gained with siding with the Kremlin as it takes, not gives. Putin may make all sorts of promises but he rarely if ever delivers on them. It took European leaders more than 20 years to figure this out and only now are they apologizing for it. We should have listened to our Eastern European friends, they say. I suppose late is better than never.
The hilarious part is that Vlad resurrects one of his old European friends, Gerhard Schroeder, to broker future "peace talks" between Russia and Ukraine. The former German chancellor lost what little bit of clout he had years ago so one has to think Putin is just trolling the EU. Maybe he can ask for Tony Blair as well? At least, Putin more or less honored the ceasefire he proclaimed over Victory Day weekend.
Yet, his position on Ukraine remains resolutely the same. He is not willing to concede even a square inch of Donbas to Kyiv, despite losing 116 square kilometers over three days. He claims it in the name of the federal republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. I suppose he wants all of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson as well but realizes that's a hard sell, even if he proclaimed them independent republics as well.
Everyone knows that if you give into Vlad, he will only come back another day to claim more. He still lives with a maximalist view of Russia that would re-establish its 19th century boundaries. This is why we in the Baltics are so strenuously opposed to his imperial ambitions. Lithuania spent over 100 years in the Russian Empire and another 45 years in the Soviet Union. In both cases it was relegated to the "pale of settlement" and stagnated economically and socially before regaining its independence in 1918 and again in 1990. No one wants to return to that state.
I would think Belarus would similarly want to pull away from Moscow and begin to enjoy greater prosperity in the West, as its three decades of living under a proxy Russian leader has yielded nothing in the way of economic or social gains. This is a country barely living above the level of Ukraine, which has been at war for the past four years. Maybe this is why Lukashenko was yelling at Putin. I gave you everything and got nothing in return, you can imagine him shouting. That's the way it goes whenever you deal with Russia.
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