Ever since Belarus completed construction of its twin Ostrovets nuclear power plant near the border of Lithuania, we have periodically been issued potassium iodide (KI) capsules through the local pharmacy. The first packet got crushed in my wallet. The second I now house in a stainless steel pill tube attached to my key chain. The idea is that if we were to experience a nuclear explosion similar to Chernobyl, the tablets would buy us some time during evacuation.
From what little I've read about KI, it is not really suitable for someone my age, but the state health department issued the tablets to everyone just the same, recommending 130 mg. for those over 12 years old. I suppose an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure in this case, especially after watching the HBO mini-series Chernobyl, which was largely filmed in Lithuania.
No one really understood why Belarus needed this power plant. Russia financed and constructed the reactors for its vassal state, starting in 2013, and the power plant opened in 2020. It has had several operational malfunctions but we are repeatedly told it is safe. It's not like Belarus can't import gas and oil from Mother Russia, but I suppose this was seen as providing "low-cost" electricity for decades to come, especially since Moscow was footing the tab in exchange for loyalty. Putin had bailed out Lukashenko on numerous occasions.
The bigger question was why on the border of Lithuania since Belarus is a large state and one assumes these massive reactors could have been more centrally located. This led many to ponder that Russia had plans to annex the Baltics and that the nuclear reactors would serve these three states as well. A narrow strip knowns as the Sulwaki Gap separates Belarus from Kaliningrad. Lithuania had been forced to decommission its Chernobyl-style reactors back in the early 2000s as part of EU ascension agreements. The reactors were fully modernized following independence in 1990 but there was a stigma attached to them that was hard to shake. It has been a long costly project, partially funded by the EU.
We breathed a little sigh of relief in that things haven't gone so well for Russia in Ukraine and it has had to pour all its military resources into protecting the territorial gains it made in 2022. Even that hasn't gone well with people fleeing Crimea due to the massive drone strikes, gas shortages and general feeling of apprehension as the war closes in around them. We thought this might be our situation back in 2024 an 2025 when Russia seemed to have a stranglehold on Ukraine. It's just amazing how the tide can change so quickly in a long-running war. Nevertheless we remain cautious as you never know when the tide may switch back the other way.
Our biggest worry now isn't so much that Russia will invade our tiny nation but that it will strike us with drones and/or missiles as it does Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, creating chaos and potentially unleashing a "fifth column" inside the country. An estimated 20% of Lithuanians, mostly Russian-speaking, favor closer ties with Russia. Putin seems to have no regard for domestic life, preferring to target civilian infrastructure. His Z missiles recently took out the Latvian embassy in Kyiv, whether intentionally or not is hard to determine. He has long said European nations are now targets due to their complicity with Ukraine.
No one is quite sure what constitutes the "red line" when it comes to Article 5 of the NATO charter. Here in Eastern Europe, we feel Putin long ago crossed that line. You can go back to 2007 when Russia hacked the Estonian web, shut down its computer grid and created chaos and panic throughout the country. All this over the removal of The Bronze Soldier of Tallinn from the heart of the city to the outskirts of town, where you can still lay flowers at its feet if so inclined. Since then Russia has been engaged in a hybrid war throughout Europe, in particular Eastern Europe, but no one is immune from Russian cyberattacks.
I suppose when actual loss of lives are involved maybe NATO will act. In the meantime it seems content to play cat and mouse with Russia, thinking there is some room for negotiations. Needless to say, Eastern European countries don't think much of these negotiation efforts, particularly those led by the Trump team that has shown an inordinate amount of sympathy toward Russia and Belarus.
We have had to bear the brunt of these "talks" with the US working with the Lukashenko regime in Minsk to free "political prisoners." The US has loosened sanctions in exchange for these releases, most recently on the flow of potash. Belarus is one of the leading suppliers in the world, and it seems there is much demand for this fertilizer. The EU has not loosened sanctions, putting Lithuania and Poland squarely in the middle of this dilemma, as it is only through these countries that Belarus can transport their precious potash.
Why we are even talking with Lukashenko, who overturned the 2020 elections, resulting in massive protests, arrests and the flight of many Belarusians to neighboring states, is yet another question? More than 40,000 "political refugees" currently reside in Vilnius, including the de facto leader of this diaspora, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who claims she won the election that year. She's been largely feted by European leaders and treated as the Belarusian president in exile. Why Europe didn't do more in 2020 is also open to question?
Here again, it took actual military aggression to finally get Europe to react and then largely at the initiative of then US President Biden. Most European countries didn't want to deal with Ukraine anymore than they did Belarus, seeing them as on the edge of the European frontier and of no concern to them. They were more worried about the flow of natural gas and oil, which they bought from Russia. However, the mood changed considerably over the years and now most European countries fully support Ukraine and have shown more interest in Belarusians uprooted from their country.
The intellectual drain of so many Belarusians having left their country is causing a strain on the government that is having a hard time keeping things running properly, including its nuclear reactors. Many Belarusians see their country as a sinking ship under Lukashenko, which makes the situation even more dangerous, as you don't know what will happen in the near future. This is not only true of Ostrovets nuclear reactors but the country as a whole, which now houses Russian nuclear warheads at Putin's behest, allegedly as a deterrent to NATO aggression.
So best to keep those potassium iodide capsules handy and up to date. I thought they were a precious thing the way they were being rationed out, but you can buy micro doses of 150 mcg at bargain prices. It's supposed to be good for the thyroid gland and cognitive function. It would take a lot of these tiny capsules to come up with 130 mg as recommended by the state health department in case of radiation fallout, so we keep our emergency supply handy and our fingers crossed.
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