Have we reached the end of the road?

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

In his latest statement on Ukraine, Trump bemoaned 25,000 people being killed last month, most of them Russian soldiers on the front line. Here we are 20 months after he famously declared he could end the war in 24 hours, and he has resorted to pleas to stop the fighting. In his addled mind, it is Ukraine that is driving up the price of diesel fuel by bombing refineries and storage tanks in Russia.

No doubt these drone attacks have contributed to the spike in fuel prices, but oddly enough Trump doesn't seem to think his own war in Iran has anything to do with it. He insists that he has control of the Strait of Hormuz even if tankers still find themselves mired in the Persian Gulf. Twenty percent of all fuel products come from this region.

His attempts to broker a compromise have failed miserably. There is little respect for Witkoff and Kushner at this point, largely because the only terms they are willing to consider are those set forth by Russia. If we are to believe the Putin regime, all Ukraine has to do is cede Russia the remainder of the Donbas region and the Kremlin will cease making life miserable for Ukrainians with its nightly bombings.

Of course, one can't trust Putin anymore than one can trust Trump. Vlad is playing the long game, biting off what he can of Ukraine for the time being and then mounting further incursions in the future. His expansionary aims are not just confined to Ukraine but the Baltic countries as well. There has been a lot of chatter in recent months that he is planning to bomb a NATO country. Take your pick. There are ten of them stretched along the Western flank of Russia. 

Most likely he will target Lithuania as he wants to create a land bridge to Kaliningrad, as he has done in Ukraine to Crimea. At the moment, he is allowed to transport products through Belarus to Kaliningrad via a humanitarian corridor in Lithuania. No one is allowed to get on or off the train as it passes through the country. It doesn't really make much sense as he can easily supply Kaliningrad via the Baltic Sea, but apparently trains are cheaper. That may be a moot point in the near future as Lithuania is changing its track gauges to EU standards and Russian trains would no longer be able to use them.

As such, we have been getting daily warnings, even a couple of red alerts, as armed drones have been spotted in the southern region of the country. Russia testing NATO preparedness. 

Estonia and Latvia are also likely targets as they similarly share a border with Russia and seem relatively easy to overrun, although he would be declaring war on all of NATO at that point as there are brigades from Germany, France and Canada stationed in the Baltic countries. I don't think Putin would risk another humiliating invasion. He would most likely resort to missile or drone strikes, hoping to create chaos and sow seeds of dissent within these countries. That has been his strategy in Ukraine ever since his invasion became mired along the Dnipro River. 

Meanwhile, Trump tries to act as a bridge between Putin and NATO, a rather rickety one, but bridge just the same. He's still angling for that Nobel Peace Prize that eluded him last year. He is getting some sympathy from alternative European parties like the AfD in Germany, but for the most part Europe has turned its back on Trump. Leaders spent all last year trying to get Trump to see Putin for what he really is but to no avail.

This leads one to wonder why Trump puts so much faith in Putin. He appears willing to hold another "summit" at Mar-a-Lago with the potential of having Zelensky join them. However, it is doubtful Putin would agree to those terms. He has steadfastly refused to meet the Ukrainian president, regarding him as illegitimate. Trump has even parroted those words from time to time, insisting that Zelensky should hold new elections. Yet, Trump seems to have no problem with the way Putin has consolidated power in Russia, using the "elections" as a tool to promote those loyal to him. In the recent parliamentary elections more than 40 of the United Russia candidates are war veterans. Putin uses elections the same way the Soviet Union did to legitimize his control over the country.

Zelensky is having to deal with turmoil within his country as corruption has spread throughout the government. Yet, compared to what we see in Washington these days this is small potatoes. Trump and his inner circle are reaping billions from the policies his administration sets, notably in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors, where he has lifted almost all regulations. Yet, we are led to believe the situation is much worse in Ukraine in the midst of war. 

None of Trump's attempts to discredit and often disparage Ukraine have worked, largely because most people empathize with Ukraine, not Russia. Even conservative leaders like Giorgia Meloni of Italy side with Ukraine, as did the previous conservative government in the UK. Boris Johnson still visits Ukraine regularly. Even among his own MAGA faithful, an overwhelming number support Ukraine. Hardcore podcaster Laura Loomer, once a staunch supporter of Russia, came back from Kyiv with a new outlook. Why does Trump persist in supporting Putin?

We never get a straight answer and I've written about it extensively, but the main reason appears that Trump is kompromat. To turn against Putin would unleash a barrage of compromising files that would make the Epstein Files look like child's play, no pun intended. We all recall the Steele dossier that was roundly dismissed in 2016. That was just the tip of the iceberg. 

Over the past ten years, Donald has never said one harsh word against Putin. He has repeatedly defended him, even praised Putin for his bold initiative back in 2022, and still insists he is a man of his word. It's almost farcical, yet we have to deal with it as Trump is the President of the United States whether we like it or not.

Ironically, he has dug a political grave for himself in the process. Trump's approval rating is now at its lowest point ever. Depending on what graph you look at it, he hovers between 30 and 35 percent, which means he has lost a ton of support from within his own base. For a man who desperately wants to be loved this must be a very bitter pill to swallow.

Yet, here he is bemoaning the Russian casualties in Ukraine. I feel sorry for them too, as most of these men didn't want to be there, especially those from the 47 countries Russia has solicited as mercenaries. Zelensky provided a startling graphic account at the recent UN general assembly. The Kremlin uses a wide variety of recruiting tactics, mostly cash incentives, to come serve on the frontline. It does so in an effort to disguise the number of casualties so that Russian citizens will feel less pain. Yet, many Russian soldiers die as well. Some 300,000 over the last four-and-a-half years. All for Putin's territorial ambitions.

To bring the war home to Russians, Ukraine has now actively targeted oil refineries, fuel supply depots and military targets throughout the country. This has crippled Russia's oil industry to the point Crimea now finds itself isolated, with many Russians fleeing the enclave. This has caused great embarrassment for Putin, who for so long had given the impression he had this military action under control. Seeing that he can no longer win this war without cutting off military supplies to Ukraine, he pleads to Trump. It's too late as Ukraine is perfectly capable of making its own long-range drones and no longer relies on American support. 

The US hasn't offered any new military package to Ukraine since 2024. Trump uses PURL to sell arms to Ukraine via NATO countries, but this is quite minimal. He has been bellyaching that Ukraine should pay back the US for all the military supplies it received in the past. If not directly then through European countries. I suppose to help fund his war in Iran.

Have we reached the end of a long road where we see both the US and Russia finally forced to pay the political price for all their unnecessary incursions. Trump and Putin have never been more alone. Only Netanyahu may be more alone as more than half of the UN general assembly walked out on his speech last week. Yet, together they are a formidable threat to the free world, even as their munitions run low. 

We can only hope that these midterm elections in the US help to contain at least one of these tyrants. Everyone is tired of war, Donald. Just no one wants to see countries accede to your terms, or those of Putin or Netanyahu.