Monday, March 17, 2014

A very questionable bellwether



It would seem that the Republicans are placing a lot of weight on the recent Florida Congressional Special Election where their man, David Jolly, beat Alex Sink in a race that apparently was largely over "Obamacare."  It seems Democrats had high expectations, but prevailing conservative attitudes won out. Rep. Bill Young, a Republican who passed away last year, had represented the House district for decades.  However, Obama had carried the district in 2012, and so Republicans take this as an important victory.

Robert Gibbs, Obama's former press secretary, talked about another "wave election" like in 2010 that swept Democrats out of the House, which this time could wash away the Democratic control of the Senate.  There are some signs of worry for Democrats, but Scott Brown's much talked about bid for the New Hampshire senate seat seems a bit overblown, as Brown is viewed as little more than a "carpetbagger" in the Granite State, and I doubt could mount a serious challenge, but I guess once you've had a taste of the Senate, it is hard to go back to normal life.

Like much of this early election talk it is mostly speculation, and one House race is little to hang your hat on for a political party that has shot itself in the foot repeatedly since its sweeping electoral mandate in 2010.  It has lost a number of key elections, including the governor race in Virginia last year.

Then there is Kentucky, one of the states where the roll out of the Affordable Care Act has been successful, thanks largely to Gov. Beshear, who has actively promoted the ACA.  This doesn't bode well for Mitch McConnell, who finds himself in a very tight race with Allison Lundergan Grimes.

But, the Republicans scored the first significant win of 2014 and I guess that's what counts most in this election year.  For the record, Jolly edged out Sink by less than 2 percentage points, but close doesn't count except in horseshoes and hand grenades.

1 comment:

  1. Added this bit about the petulant Scott Brown,

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/17/scott-brown-leaves-fox-after-bristling-at-questions-about-launching-campaign/

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