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The United States of Trump




Our president has dug in his heels like a three-year-old toddler and refuses to budge on the wall.  We can thank his talk show nannies, Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh for this impasse, as he refused to listen to reason and sign a temporary spending bill that would have avoided a government shutdown.  His right-wing base is like that little devil on his shoulder saying, do it, do it!

It's not like government will actually shutdown.  Federal employees just won't get their checks until the spending bill is approved.  More a nasty inconvenience than anything else, as many of these workers were counting on their checks to carry them through the holidays.  Now, they have to put all their Christmas purchases on their charge cards.

Trump says he is prepared to shutdown government for a long time if he doesn't get his wall.  It's not like $5.7 billion will go far.  The wall is estimated to cost no less than $25 billion.  It's the principle that counts, at least as far as Limbaugh and Coulter and a host of other right-wing talking heads are concerned.  Coulter cried that Trump would "have no legacy whatsoever" if he didn't build this wall,  Steve Doocey added that if there isn't a shutdown "he's going to look like a loser," a fate worse than death for Trump.

For his part, Chuck Schumer is refusing to budge.  The current Senate spending bill has $1.3 billion earmarked for border security but zero for the wall.  Rather than sit down with Democrats and try to reach a compromise, Trump chose to huddle with like-minded Republicans to work out a strategy to pass the blame onto the Democrats.  Given that the Senate spending bill passed unanimously on Wednesday, I'm not sure how this works, but Trump will make sure to let all his twitter followers know he's on top of his game.

Meanwhile, the Dow has sunk to its lowest point since September, 2017, leading the President to ponder firing Jerome Powell, who refused to heed his advice and not raise the interest rate.  All last year, Trump based his economic acumen on the Dow, but when it began to tumble in late January after hitting a record high of 26,600, he's been virtually mum on the subject.  Many economists are now predicting recession, noting the similarities between the current markets and that of 1987.  It's not just the Dow, but housing and car loans have also dropped off, meaning that Americans are digging themselves in for economic hard times ahead.

This probably hurts Trump the most, as he predicated his presidency on his economic genius.  He crowed and crowed about generating the best economy ever and here we are now on the brink of collapse.  It was easy enough to forecast, as he stripped banking regulations and has been pushing the same economic measures that led to the 2008 recession.  It may not be as severe this time around as investors have been a little more careful, not wanting to repeat the worst recession since the Great Depression, as it is doubtful Congress would fund another huge bailout.

One can argue that if CEO's had invested more of their tax breaks into their businesses, as was the intent of the $1.5 trillion tax cut, we probably wouldn't be in this situation, but then unemployment was already at historic low levels so why bother.  Instead, we see companies like GM downsizing at the end of the year to cover their losses, which they blame on the tariffs.

Seems Trump outsmarted himself with the tariffs, creating a volatile economy subject to steep dips and marginal rises that leaves investors wondering what plan, if any, the White House has with trade negotiations in the months ahead.  His new trade deal with Canada and Mexico, USMCA, was largely panned by economists as an eleventh hour agreement that offered no significant improvements over the previous North American Free Trade Agreement.  Tariffs still remain in place as well as many other roadblocks that make our trade relationship with Canada and Mexico tenuous at best.

What we see is a president lurching back and forth, trying to keep himself aligned with his favorite conservative talk show hosts without screwing the pooch.  Trump desperately wants the economy to keep growing to validate his presidency, but at the same time doesn't want himself to be viewed as a sellout by his adoring following.  It's one or the other at this point, as the policies he promoted during the campaign do not lead to economic prosperity.

Making things immeasurably worse is the resignation of General Mattis, probably the last adult in the room as far as the White House is concerned.  Mattis was the only one offering our traditional allies assurances that the US wasn't deviating from its long-standing alliances, but that went out the window last week when Trump ordered the pull out of American troops in Syria without consulting Mattis, Congress or NATO allies.  It was the last straw for Mattis, who resigned the next day, leaving a gaping hole in the White House.

Trump was apparently coaxed into this decision by Erdogan, at least this is what the White House is saying.  Judging from Putin's comments, Erdogan was acting as a go-between to the president, as Turkey is part of NATO.  The decision isn't final, and if Trump is easily convinced by Fox & Friends to change course on the spending bill, he could do the same as Syria.  Steve Doocey similarly admonished Trump for pulling out of Syria.  However, it is doubtful Mattis will come back if Trump reversed his decision.  The WH is now entertaining the idea of Tom Cotton as the new Secretary of Defense, a man with every bit as volatile a temperament as Trump.

What we have is a sad case of the tail wagging the dog.  The right-wing conservative media is the tail and Trump is the dog.  He has banked his entire presidency on the support of a fanatic group of radical conservatives, who basically want to dismantle government as we know it, returning us to the days before FDR came into office and spawned all these social democratic institutions that they loathe so much -- namely social security, health care and welfare.  These same conservatives would like to see the US pull out of all international alliances, including NATO, as they don't believe these alliances serve our national interests.  Or, should I say Nationalist interests?

After two years of more or less playing both ends against the middle, Trump now seems prepared to move irrevocably to the right of the political spectrum.  It's my way or the highway, or in this case a big beautiful border wall that he has managed to convince his base is the only thing that stands between the US and the hordes of zombie immigrants threatening to destroy our country.

Welcome to the United States of Trump!  Congress can no longer afford to shirk its responsibilities, lest this great nation become an autocracy.

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