Meanwhile in Africa

Whenever it is quiet like this, you have to wonder what is going on behind the battle lines.  There have been some odd world leaders trying to convince Putin to pull back, including Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa, who claims he has been asked to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, but you are left to wonder by whom?  

South Africa was one of many African countries that chose to abstain from the UN vote to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  The Russian Embassy in South Africa in turn thanked the country for its support.  I'm not sure that's exactly what South Africa wanted, but now they are stuck with it.

In 2011, South Africa signed onto BRIC, officially making it BRICS, a trading bloc of sorts, whose aim has been to rival that of the US and EU.  It has a combined nominal GDP of $19.6 trillion, most of which belongs to China. Putin realized pretty early on that Russia and its CIS brethren weren't ever going to be strong enough to challenge US and European economic hegemony in the world, so he coaxed China, India and Brazil into this joint venture, without having to put up very much himself.  Russia's economy has a $1.5 trillion GDP, which could very well fall below a trillion by the end of the year.

This is why Ukraine doesn't consider South Africa a neutral body, and doesn't have much interest in its president trying to negotiate a peace deal.  Israeli PM Bennett came back from Moscow with nothing in hand, even after meeting Putin on Sabbath.  But, godspeed Mr, Ramaphosa, maybe you will succeed where others have failed.

African countries find themselves in a bind.  Many of these countries have allied themselves with China, which has poured a lot of development money into these countries over the past three decades, with South Africa one of the key recipients.  China wants to corner the market on precious minerals so that it can surge ahead of the US and EU in the electronics industry.  It has also established close ties with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola and Nigeria.  Russia has more or less tagged along for the ride.  Its relationship with these countries is mixed to say the least, relying more on a nostalgia for the old Soviet days when its government recognized rebel movements in these embattled countries.  The USSR even helped set up the socialist government in Angola in the 1970s, which exists to this day. 

I remember hitchhiking around Zimbabwe in the late 1980s and seeing all the propaganda posters and even films projected on the walls of beer gardens with former President Mugabe shaking hands with Soviet and other African socialist leaders.  The bookstores were filled with propaganda literature, including Mao's Little Red Book.  Zimbabwe's economy was on the verge of tanking.  You could get around the country on a hundred US dollars.  There were some tense moments, but for the most part I had a great time.  It took decades to finally shed this red image, although the economy still remains in tatters with the Zim Dollar a running joke.  A sad object lesson.

Some of my relatives in South Africa fear their country is headed down this same road.  The economy has suffered considerably in the 30 years since the fall of Apartheid.  Part of it is due to the necessary rebuilding effort, but with it came all the greed and corruption that one associates with countries like Nigeria.  Still, most South Africans remain hopeful, having finally gotten rid of the notorious Jacob Zuma, and putting their trust in Cyril Ramaphosa, a former business leader, to turn the country around.  It was Zuma who brought South Africa into BRIC despite most of South Africa's foreign trade being with the EU and US.  China of course is a very large component of that trade, but not Russia.  So, Ramaphosa finds himself walking a tightrope. The thank you note from the Russian embassy has gone viral, with some pointed responses.

I came back from Lesotho in 1990 after serving two years in Peace Corps.  I flew out of Johannesburg as Mandela was being released from Robben Island.  I stopped over in Berlin, where I spent a few days before returning to the United States.  Kreuzberg was in the process of being reclaimed by squatters, who had turned the basements of the old GDR housing blocks into night clubs and were living in the abandoned flats.  You could buy all sorts of East German and Soviet paraphernalia on the streets, as many Russian soldiers had literally been forced to sell the coats off their backs and caps off their heads to pay for train passage back home.  The fall of the Apartheid regime and the Soviet Union were happening concurrently with ANC and South African Communist Party leaders forced to rethink their positions on the direction the country would take in a post-Apartheid and post-Soviet world.  Joe Slovo, the head of the Communist Party in South Africa had Lithuanian roots.  The tiny Baltic country had declared its independence from the Soviet Union earlier that year.

I don't expect African countries to have much stake in the Russia-Ukraine war, but at the same time I'm a bit surprised that so many would choose to abstain from the rather innocuous UN resolution.  It wasn't like they were asked to take a side.  I thought Martin Kimani, the Kenyan envoy to the UN, summed up the situation exceedingly well as to why his country supported the resolution.  I was also heartened that Lesotho similarly supported the resolution.  Yet, for some odd reason South Africa couldn't steer clear from Russia, whose aggressive behavior should have reminded it of its own embattled history.

Instead, African leaders point to the racism at the Polish-Ukrainian border experienced by Africans held back while Ukrainians were allowed across first.  They didn't ask to be in this war.  True, and these reports are very disconcerting, but that doesn't lessen the massive humanitarian crisis taking place.  Since these reports first surfaced, Polish activists have been working hard to specifically help African and Middle Eastern refugees stuck on the border.  Maybe Mr. Ramaphosa can bring up the issue of racism in Russia when he talks to Vladimir Putin, especially since the Russian media has been quick to post these images at the border on its news services. 

However, it is important to not let ourselves become distracted by what is taking place on the ground.  Russian forces are obviously regrouping and preparing for renewed sieges on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and other embattled cities in Eastern Ukraine.  The situation in these cities has become increasing dire with the lack of running water, electricity and no safe evacuation or humanitarian aid corridors.  Ukrainians are being forced to go underground to avoid the massive shelling taking place, which includes outlawed cluster bombs.  Ukraine didn't bring this war upon itself.  Russia imposed it on Ukraine, recalling all the worst aspects of colonialism.