The Triangle Shirtwaist Factory Fire

It's interesting to see Trump try to play both sides of the war in Ukraine.  The other day he said that Ukraine should lay down its arms as it has no chance of winning against Russia.  Further noting that Russia had obliterated Ukraine with towns and cities gone that could "never be duplicated."  He then meets Zelensky and says "Putin cannot win."  Which is it?

For his part, Zelensky is also playing both sides in meeting with Republican and Democratic leaders with the hope that the US will continue to support Ukraine regardless of who wins the election.  He still faced criticism from Lindsey Graham for meeting Gov. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania.  Graham saw this as a partisan move.  Yet, Zelensky met with Donald in Trump Tower, supposedly to hash out his "victory plan."

I find it hard to believe Zelensky shared much information with Trump knowing that he is such a blabber mouth.  No sooner had the Ukrainian president left the building than Trump was posting on Truth Social about the meeting.  It was a major coup for Trump as it helped to project his image as a "deal maker."

All this in the face of another big UN general assembly where "Bibi" Netanyahu lays out what he regards as the good guys and bad guys in the Middle East and Central Asia with his infamous boards, resulting in scores of diplomats to walk out on his speech.  The Biden administration has futilely tried to negotiate a ceasefire but Bibi has now opened up the war on two fronts and is unlikely to bring hostilities to an end anytime soon.  Why should he?  He wants this war to tarnish the image of the Democrats with the hope that his pal Donald will win the election in November.

It struck me as very convenient for Putin that war broke out in Israel.  There is no way Iran could have supplied Hamas or Hezbollah without going through Russian-backed Syria.  Bibi himself showed on one of his boards how Iran was linked to Iraq and Syria as part of "the curse."  This after Vlad had given Bibi the green light to attack Hezbollah bases in Syria.  Former Security Advisor H.R.  McMaster outlined the "double game" in his recent book.  It's hard to believe Bibi is ignorant of this.  Rather, he sees war as a good thing as it allows him to stack the courts and carry out other autocratic actions in Israel, basically assuring his Likud party stays in power.  

With the war raging in the Levant, Putin has been able to sit back and enjoy a bit of peace in Moscow.  The media quickly turned to Gaza and now Lebanon.  The only break came when Ukraine mounted a surprise incursion into the Kursk region, briefly drawing "war correspondents" to the Russian-Ukrainian border.  Putin doesn't seem too worried about it, as he has done little to challenge Ukraine's hold on the Russian oblast.  Instead, he continues to chip away at the front line in the Donbas region, hoping to claim the entire region as his own before entering any kind of negotiations with the Harris or Trump administration.

However, European resolve has not broken down as Putin hoped.  All told, European countries have now contributed more aid to Ukraine than the United States, combining economic with military assistance.  This defeats one of Trump's central arguments that the US is being forced to cover the tab for a war in Europe.  

Ukraine finally got the first shipment of F-16s. It had a bit of a rough start in losing one of these jets in a Russian ambush attack, but seems to be doing a better job now of concealing its military assets.  The hope is that Ukraine will no longer be so vulnerable to air strikes.

Still, Putin figures time is on his side.  As long as he is able to hold the coastal oblasts of Ukraine, he is pretty much able to negotiate whatever deal he likes.  He's done a pretty good job of shoring up BRICS with the support of China, ensuring that he has continued economic support in the face of Western sanctions.  Not that it really matters as Russians remain largely supportive of Putin regardless of whatever economic hardships they face.  What little opposition there was to his regime has long since fled to neighboring countries to avoid persecution. 

In an interesting twist, it turned out it wasn't the Kremlin that ordered a hit on Leonid Volkov, a former Navalny associate, but rather one of Khodorkovsky's former associates at Yukos.  Volkov had been hiding out in Vilnius when he was attacked one night by mysterious thugs.  He survived but couldn't identify the attackers.  Everyone just assumed the Kremlin was behind it, but the Polish Anti-Corruption Foundation has charged Anatoly Blinov with organizing the hit. So, it seems these opposition movements are operating in opposition to each other.  Perfect for Putin, as he sits back with his big Chesire grin.

Blinov works for Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian Jewish billionaire currently hiding out in Israel. Nevzlin helped Khodorkovsky turn Yukos into a Western-style energy company in the late 90s.  When Putin came to power, the two tried to cozy up to him but soon fell out of favor and Putin seized Yukos.  Nevzlin immediately fled the country but Khodorkovsky made himself a martyr for the "free marketplace" and ended up spending 9 years in a Siberian jail.  He was able to survive, unlike Navalny, and now does regular speaking engagements around the world in which he tells of the horrors of Putin's regime.  No indication that Khodorkovsky was involved in this attack but his name is popping up everywhere.  Even more good news for Putin.  

The ties between Israel and Russia are wound up in knots.  Israel has never made any commitment to Ukraine despite the large Jewish population in Odessa.  The only Israeli aid efforts have been private initiatives.  On Netanyahu's part, he has urged Ukrainian Jews to come to Israel.  After all, he needs more people to settle the West Bank.  This has put Zelensky, who is Jewish, and Netanyahu at odds, although they have both tried to put a good face on it, as they rely on the United States for military aid.

This has made the situation particularly difficult for the Biden administration.  It can't very well condemn Russian aggression and at the same condone Israeli aggression.  Biden has tried to walk the fine line but for the most part has tripped over himself, leading many Muslim-Americans to voice their indignation.  Recently, the Muslim mayor of  Hamtramck, Michigan, endorsed Trump, calling the Republican presidential candidate a "man of principles."  We all know Trump's position on Muslims but no matter.  It is clear that Muslim-Americans aren't happy and want the Democratic Party to know about it.

All this angst has played directly into Putin's hand, almost as if he stirred the pot himself.  He can disassociate himself from much of it as the FBI focuses on Chinese and Iranian attempts to disrupt the elections.  But, these countries are all working together to create as much chaos as possible in the last month of the campaign.  I don't think they really care who wins just as long as the US makes a mockery of itself, which it has done a very good job of doing so.  

Kennedy's recent legal actions to get himself on and off ballots in various states has caused a lot of electoral uncertainty, particularly in those states that have already mailed ballots.  This potentially created a nightmare scenario in Wisconsin, where Kennedy wanted that state to put stickers over his name.  The state supreme court unanimously said no.  Kennedy is either a useful idiot or Russian tool, like Jill Stein.

Zelensky didn't pick the best time to visit America.  Whatever he does will be seen as partisan, as both sides have so much at stake in this election.  Republicans are desperately trying to retake the Senate and have a key race in Pennsylvania, where they are hoping to unseat Democrat Bob Casey, Jr.  This is what got Lindsey's dander up.  It didn't matter that Zelensky gave Trump a huge gift by praising him in New York, which no doubt ruffled Democratic feathers, as we all know who Trump answers to.  Never has a US Presidential election had so much foreign involvement.

For her part, Kamala tries to keep a low profile on foreign policy matters, focusing on the economy instead.  She met with Zelensky at the White House and has remained supportive of Israel while at the same criticizing its actions in Gaza and Lebanon.  None of which seems to satisfy anyone.  Polls remain close, particularly in battleground states.  All it would take is one slip up on Kamala's part, as Trump is constantly slipping up but it doesn't seem to matter.  

As Kurt Vonnegut would say, so it goes.