Living on a knife's edge

The United States isn't the only country in the heat of an election.  Lithuania is holding parliamentary elections next month with over 20 political parties vying for the majority in the Seimas.   No single party will win an outright majority so that means coalitions will be formed like the current one that saw three parties come together to lead the Seimas.  

We've been watching the debates and it is not a pretty sight.  With so many political parties, Lithuanian National Radio and Television (LRT) has opted to show five parties on any given night, pitting one of the coalition government parties against three challengers.  Last night it was Aušrinė Armonaitė of the Freedom Party against three pro-Russian parties.    The Christian Families Alliance is so avowedly pro-Russian that you would think its leader, Waldemar Tomaszewski was a direct agent of Moscow.  It was hard to say where the other party stood.

Don't let the Polish name fool you.  For years he has been heading a group that honored Soviet victory day and would wear the infamous orange and black St. George ribbon to gatherings.  The ribbon has since been banned along with any other military symbols associated with Russia and the Soviet Union.  Even the Z has been made into a St. George's ribbon.  

That didn't stop Tomaszewski from voicing his opinion in his relatively passive voice.  After all, we live in a free and open society, but he doesn't think so and said that it doesn't serve Lithuania's interest to be so aggressively anti-Russian.

However, he was pretty mild in comparison to Dr. Vaitkus, a former hematologist now active politician who scored a surprising 7 percent of the vote in the Presidential election earlier this year and parlayed that into a political party which he calls the Lithuanian People's Party.  He is so pro-Russian as to make your hair stand on end.  Daina got so angry listening to him rant on Ukraine that she turned the channel and only came back after she was sure his one minute was up.  He claimed that the US started the war and that poor Russia had no choice but to defend itself.

We counted no less than five political parties that have either open or tacit Russian sympathies.  Even the former Vilnius mayor sounded suspiciously pro-Russian when he criticized the tougher immigration policy in light of several recent Belarussian and Russian immigrants having direct ties to the Kremlin.  Zuokas said it was bad for business, given the size of this expat community, most of whom are here to take advantage of EU business ties.  Zuokas has changed parties so many times it is hard to know where he stands, although he remains a virulent critic of the incumbent Conservative party headed by Ingrida Šimonytė, likening Lithuanians' relationship with her party to Stockholm's syndrome.

It is best to describe ourselves as reluctant Conservative Party members.  We both like Šimonytė as she has proven herself a strong Prime Minister, but the party itself carries a lot of baggage that we don't like.  Nevertheless, the Conservative Party has been extremely supportive of Ukraine with Šimonytė herself getting on the phone to solicit persons to help house Ukrainians when the war broke out in February, 2022.  Daina was convinced it was Ingrida on the other end of the line when she received a call to host two Ukrainian families, as we had registered our vacant flat the day before.  We gladly did so.

There are still quite a few Ukrainian families living in Vilnius.  We were selling some used appliances and got a call from an Ukrainian man who said he needed a washing machine for his family.  Daina said he could have it for free if he picked it up and that evening he came by with one of his sons to get the old AEG machine.  He said he was here with his wife and four of his children.  Three of his older boys were still in Ukraine.  Their town had been ravaged by the Russian army and they were waiting until the war was over before resettling.

To hear some of these pro-Russians talk on television, Ukraine should just give up and accept Moscow's conditions.  It's not much unlike what you hear from Trump and his MAGA brethren in Congress.  This led Tomaszewski to opin that a Trump victory would bring peace to the region.  Armonaitė could barely stifle her laugh, as we all know Lithuania remains in the crosshairs of Putin, who is anxious to create a land bridge to Kaliningrad.  He's not satisfied with sea routes, as we saw in Ukraine.  As such, there are now 3700 NATO soldiers stationed in Lithuania with more being promised by Germany.  If nothing else it makes Putin think twice before invading.

The amazing part is that they say this nonsense despite the fact Lithuania has twice been occupied by Russia and the Soviet Union.  The longest stretch was between 1795 and 1918 when Tsarist Russia claimed the remnants of the Lithuanian Grand Duchy as its own with the partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.  It's identity was all but erased during this time, as it was illegal to use the language or any other expressions of former statehood.  Still, an underground movement persisted and when the time came at the end of WWI to break away, Lithuania did so, establishing an independent state that lasted until 1940 when the Soviet Union signed the infamous Molotov-Ribentrop Pact with Nazi Germany that gave it the Baltic states.  The Red Army would have to fight to reclaim this territory after Hitler reneged on the agreement, doing so in 1944 with the Battle of Vilnius.  It would be another 46 years before Lithuania could reclaim its independence as the Soviet Union began to crumble in 1990. All together, Lithuania has had 56 years of independence over the past 230 years. 

Russia broke away from the Soviet Union as well, as did 11 other former soviet states in 1991.  For awhile it seemed like a brand new day but all too quickly it was back to the same ol' Soviet mentality.  The Russian Duma recently passed legislation declaring that everything that had been part of the Soviet Union was rightfully their legacy.  That would include Ukraine, Lithuania and all the other former "Soviet Republics."  You would think Lithuanians would be fully cognizant of this, but here was Dr. Vaitkus calling for a more amicable relationship with Moscow.

There was even a motion in the Duma to revoke the sale of Alaska back in 1867.  The so-called Seward's Folly, as he had negotiated the deal for $7.2 million, seemed like an inordinate amount of money at the time.  There is very little of a Russian footprint left in Alaska but you can still find a small Russian influence on tiny St. Paul Island that haven't changed much since the early 19th century.  It's wooden Russian Orthodox Church is on the National Register of Historic Places.  At one point, Russia was pressing to reclaim the island at the very least but the local residents had no interest in giving up their American citizenship.

It's this kind of regressive attitude that is the most scary.  People seem to pine for the old days even though it was a nightmare for most of them.  But, things aren't so easy now with all the high prices.  If you are a pensioner it is pretty hard to get by in today's economy.  Many hold onto their share of a dilapidated house, living very spartan lives.  In Žverynas, where we live, you can still find the old blue hand water pumps as many of the 19th century wood houses have no running water or flush toilets.  The residents have little plots of vegetables in the yards with pumpkins slowly ripening.  The neighborhood is filled with fruit trees, dropping apples all over the place.  Most of them crushed by the cars that pass through the neighborhood.  This seems to be the people that Vaitkus and Tomaszewski appeal to, as they rattled on about grocery and utility prices.

Sound familiar?  It is very much the same playbook you hear among conservative populist parties everywhere.  They know that these people are upset with their current status in life, so they appeal to their basest instincts, blaming all their woes on the current government.  It's not like a new party will make anything better.  We found that out with Karbauskas' Peasants and Green Party that rode to a surprise electoral victory in 2016.  

After four years of failed leadership, the Conservatives won again by forming a coalition with the Liberal and Freedom parties.  It seemed like a mismatch on paper but they have done a pretty good job running the country the last four years.  Although it is unlikely they will win a second term.  Lithuanians tend to throw out the ruling coalition every four years.

It feels like living on a knife's edge as you don't know which way the government will turn in any election year.  It used to be fairly predictive, the Conservatives would win one election cycle, the Social Democrats the next.  But the Social Democrats have splintered and fallen into chaos over the years and are not expected to pose any kind of challenge.  Their presidential candidate scored less than two percent of the vote.

It is hard for me to imagine that Lithuanians will fall for one of these pro-Russian parties, but collectively these parties are expected to win at least 20% of the electorate.  We also have the wolves in sheeps' clothing like Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who created the Nemuno Aušra party last year and is doing surprisingly well in polls.  While not openly pro-Russian, there is something disconcerting about him that makes you wonder what kind of government he would lead if his party wins the election.  More concerning, what other parties he would appeal to in forming a coalition?